Posted on 10/30/2024 6:14:53 PM PDT by 11th_VA
GOLDSBORO, North Carolina — Early vote numbers in North Carolina show the electorate skewing older and whiter, compared to the state’s voter registration, a red flag for Democrats who need Black voters to turn out in heavy numbers if Kamala Harris is going to flip this state.
As of Wednesday, Black voters make up 18 percent of the electorate in early voting, and some Democratic operatives said they must bump that up to about 20 percent for Harris to be competitive statewide. In 2020, Black voters were 19 percent of the electorate, when Donald Trump narrowly won the state. And Democrats acknowledge that without a swing in their favor in the last days of early voting or on Election Day, it may not be good enough.
About 36,000 more African Americans had voted in-person by this point in 2020 than in 2024, and “that gap has to be closed among African Americans for Democrats to win,” said Thomas Mills, a Democratic strategist in the state. While acknowledging the Black vote is “lagging,” former Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D-N.C.), who retired from his rural, eastern North Carolina seat in 2022, said he believes Democrats will close the gap, predicting “this week is going to be impressive” for African American turnout.
“Black voters know the consequences of another Trump presidency,” he said. “And so I believe, at the end of the day, we will have an Obama-like turnout.”
…
… Harris, it’s not just a turnout problem. There are also signs of erosion in her support in North Carolina among Black men, especially young Black men, according to public polling. Harris is expected to win a majority of African American voters in North Carolina, and nationally, but any slippage with this group would be a blow to the vice president.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
RATS concerned about “black” turnout are some racist SOBS. Why can’t they be Americans like the rest of us. Why do they have to be “black” all the friggin’ time.
Blacks were economically much worse off as a result of Obama's policies and much better off under Trump's policies.
I also heard Trump is lagging behind in the men vote. Now let me tell you lazy SOB’s if you wanna work your ass off with three jobs because you can’t afford to put food on the table for your family get your effing asses out there and vote! Do you understand what is it stake here? The survival and freedoms for you and your family! It’s gonna boil down to you making a decision to either Feed your kids or pay your mortgage and put gas in your tank don’t you get it you effing Lazy SOB’s get your asses up and go vote! My God I can’t believe women have a bigger edge in voting than men what the hell? And don’t wait until election day because they will pull every trick in the book to shut down the voting areas so that you can’t vote. For crying out loud Harry get your ass off your fking couch and go vote! Ugh!
A blow to Harris is just part of her job.
Stop trying to read thebtea leaves. Republicans are down 2-1 in PA. Go knock on doors. Doesn’t matter whre you are!
Finally a little good news. What a shitty week its been! Thank God for Biden last night. Another gift!
I just cannot find equivalent numbers for 2020.
Dems are definitely early voting more than the GOP in PA. Of course, there is Dem registration advantage there, which has closed but still exists.
Thank you. At least someone gets it.
Please read my old thread on early voting:
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4273604/posts
According to the Pew analysis 39% of Harris supporters say they will vote by mail.
17% of Trump supporters say they will vote by mail.
Therefore for vote by mail to be a wash that works out to a 69% to 31% expected Democratic lead for mail in voting.
PA is only showing mail in voting here:
The Democrats have a 57% to 32% lead. If we assumed Independents break in equal proportion that is a 64% to 36% lead.
So—all else being equal—at this stage the Republicans are five points ahead.
I would like to see some in person voting numbers to confirm that—but it looks like the slight Republican lead is reasonable.
You lost me in the math, but Lord I hope you’re right !!!!
Probably because they haven’t had a chance to vote yet because they were back in Green Bay tonight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hshrom1CMhM
I have been doing this for a bunch of states.
We are fine in PA.
I wouldn’t want to call it until I see a large number of person votes (which should be roughly even according to the Pew analysis).
PA is not showing any in person votes yet.
I think Trump will win without PA.
The Dems are way too entrenched in PA.
I think the men show up on election day
Yeah, I have a strong feeling trump gets close or wins VA or NH. Polls don’t say so, but this R voting strength is systemic and skewed towards unknown and less propensity voters coming online and voting trump. Trump has probably reached out to all the R local voting lists and turnout orgs to get this done. I wouldn’t doubt he’s hammering whatever system Youngkin used to raise his voter base. The RNC has been doing hardly anything about this and so it makes sense for trump to use the local voter turnout groups.
Trump cant win without PA
It is way too early to tell—but I remain optimistic about PA.
The numbers are where I thought they would be on mail in voting.
We should know a lot more by the weekend once the early in person numbers are available.
Trump will win a state or two out of the "Blue wall" (I guess now that includes VA, MN, etc)
In what way? Trump’s message and polling is solid; the internal polling is showing good numbers according to the campaign. Harris’ campaign still has no message and Joe just dumped a bag of garbage on her last night.
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