Posted on 10/28/2024 8:25:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
With just over a week to go before the Nov. 5 presidential election, more than 40 million people have cast early ballots so far.
As of Sunday afternoon, data provided by the University of Florida’s Election Lab shows 41.2 million voted by mail or early in person in the vast majority of states, with only a few states not reporting data.
Compared with four years ago, Republicans are returning more mail-in ballots and voting early in-person. Party affiliation does not mean that voters cast ballot for their party’s nominated candidate, meaning there is no way to definitively know what presidential candidate is ahead.
In states that report votes by party, registered Democrats have a 3.8 percent lead over registered Republicans, with 40 percent to 36.2 percent, respectively. Independent or minor party voters make up about 23.8 percent of the remainder, according to data provided by the lab.
Republicans have a 9-point advantage over Democrats during in-person early voting, while Democrats have a more than 11-point lead over Republicans for mail-in ballot returns, the data show.
As of Oct. 25, only 24.5 percent of mail-in ballots returned were from Republicans, while about 52.3 percent of Democrats did so, according to the Election Lab. Some 22.6 percent of returned mail ballots were from independents or those registered with minor parties.
Republicans in 2020 also had a smaller lead voting in-person early, the data show. At the time, some 40.2 percent of Republicans voted in-person early, while 37.5 percent were Democrats.
States that have reported no data so far include New York, Alabama, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma.
In Nevada, Republicans have a 5.1 percent early voting lead—or 31,000 votes—over Democrats, the Election Lab’s data show. That state was called for President Joe Biden over Trump in 2020.
Meanwhile, Republicans have a 6.9-percent advantage over Democrats in Arizona, a state that only reports mail-in ballots. Biden was also certified the victor in Arizona by a slim, 10,000-vote margin four years ago.
Voting by mail is extremely popular in Arizona, with nearly 90 percent of voters having cast their ballots early, most by mail, in 2020. Election officials in Arizona can begin processing and tabulating mail ballots upon receipt, but results cannot be released until one hour after polls close.
Late last week, Republicans pulled ahead in North Carolina, a state won by former President Donald Trump in 2020. By Sunday, the lead increased marginally to about 1.1 percent, or about 30,000 votes, over Democrats, data show.
Earlier this month, Trump visited areas in North Carolina that were ravaged by Hurricane Helene, saying that some Americans in the region “felt helpless and abandoned and left behind by their government.”
“In North Carolina’s hour of desperation, the American people answered the call much more so than your federal government,” he said.
And in mid-October, Vice President Kamala Harris held a rally in Greenville, North Carolina, and told a crowd that she wants to “fight for the ideals of our country and to fight to realize the promise of America.”
Pennsylvania has only reported mail-in ballots as of Oct. 27, showing that Democrats have taken a more than 330,000-vote lead over Republicans. However, Democrats’ lead has narrowed in recent days, down about 19,000 votes since Oct. 24, data show.
Pennsylvania did not have a clear winner in 2020 for four days after Election Day, as officials sifted through a huge backlog of mail ballots. The state is among only a handful that do not permit election workers to process or tabulate mail ballots until 7 a.m. ET on Election Day, which means it will likely again take days before the outcome is known.
Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin do not report party affiliation via the Election Lab website.
If “early voting” favors Republicans, it will soon be gone.
So if the dems come out and vote at the last minute instead of thinking Trump will win we could find out Harris wins. Ugh.
Correct—more analysis on early voting and what it tells us about this election:
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4273604/posts
Overall early vote is down. But Rep vs Dem is up in more than just these 3.
See post 4—almost half of President Trump’s voters told Pew they would be voting in person on election day.
Whatley said this morning that in some states about 15% of R’s early voting didn’t vote in 2020. so low propensity voters, i guess.
Not clear if “mail in” means USPS or if it includes drop-box.
This is great news, but it means nothing unless you stopped the steal. And, as we have already seen in early voting, the steal is alive and well.
Wouldn't take much ... a slight shading on one side of the envelope, some other mark or random numbers somewhere on the envelope that normal people would ignore but postal Newmans are trained to look for and cull, and a hundred other ways.
Get the stereotype of government workers just being disinterested drones pushing paper around and watching the clock out of your head. We have previous years' evidence that they are very interested in a Democratic Party win by any means.
But what about early ballot manufacturing?
They should count them when early voting ends just before Election Day. Results should be posted.
I’m precinct election judge, just left a short training review session this morning.
The Country Clerk said 1/3 of the registered voters have already voted and that they had heavy days where there were actually waiting lines to vote. (the entire county has less than 5,000 people in it)
The voters are determined. They are clearly angry and motivated.
“The voters are determined. They are clearly angry and motivated.”
That is good to hear.
Thats fine with me...we’ll just go back to election day only.
Not necessarily. Republicans so far are doing a very good job of turning out their no propensity (ie voted in 0 of the last 4 elections) and low propensity (voted in 1 of the last 4 elections) voters. Still waiting in the wings are their high propensity voters to storm the polling places on election day. Meanwhile, the Democrats aren't doing nearly as good of a job of turning out their base...ie African American vote is down, Latino women are down, etc.
It keeps the Lazy dims off the lines also!
I’m very hesitant to put any weight on early voting numbers. It’s just voters casting a ballot early. Iprefer to vote on election day because I don’t want to give poll workers an early chance to swap my ballot out for a Harris vote.
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