Posted on 10/22/2024 8:05:11 AM PDT by TigerClaws
The “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania have paved the path to the White House for the last two Democratic presidents.
But with just 14 days until the Nov. 5 election, there are concerns within Kamala Harris’ campaign about whether the vice president can claim all three states.
Recent discussions have centered on the possibility of an anomaly happening this year with just part of the blue wall breaking its way. The conversations have focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin “fall” to former President Donald Trump while the two other states go blue, according to three sources with knowledge of the campaign’s strategy.
Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania — where both Harris and Trump have spent the most time and resources — she would not reach the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House without winning another battleground state or possibly two.
“There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that the bigger concern is over Michigan. Two other people with knowledge of campaign strategy — who, like others in this article, were granted anonymity to speak candidly — also underscored deep concern about Michigan. Those people still believe that all the states are close and that there are alternative routes to victory.
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A Harris campaign spokesperson pushed back against the notion about deep concerns over Michigan, pointing to recent public polling. A Detroit News poll conducted Oct. 1-4 found Harris, who was campaigning in Michigan on Monday, holding a slight lead in the state, as did a Washington Post poll on Monday.
“We absolutely are competing to win Michigan,” Harris campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt said, noting Harris’ presence there this week. “We think we will win Michigan.”
She added that she believes they will also win Wisconsin and saw no signs of it slipping.
But also potentially troubling for Democrats: What Harris’ campaign had thought was one of its best insurance possibilities may also be in peril. Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers in interviews pointed to the combination of electoral votes from North Carolina and Nevada as a strong alternative path for Harris should Trump win Pennsylvania and claim its 19 electoral votes.
While North Carolina is still in the campaign’s sights and Democrats maintain strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less bullish about victory, four people with knowledge of the dynamics said.
“Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away,” the Harris campaign official said of North Carolina.
Hurricane Helene’s destruction — and the rampant disinformation that followed it — are factors that could weigh against Harris in North Carolina, these people said. One of the sources also pointed to a less competitive race for governor as a potential factor. A series of scandals upended Republican candidate Mark Robinson’s campaign, putting him far behind Democrat Josh Stein in polling; those developments have meant less local investment and intensity on the ground, that person said.
After President Joe Biden stepped aside from seeking the nomination and endorsed Harris on July 21, Democrats’ map expanded to include the six battleground states that Biden won in 2020 — the three blue wall states, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia — plus North Carolina. While the campaign had built infrastructure in those states under Biden, his stubbornly low ratings on the economy and immigration really kept only the three blue wall states in play. That changed when Harris entered the race. Suddenly, enthusiasm, fundraising and volunteer interest soared, and the positive polling followed.
But as the Nov. 5 election has neared, Harris and Trump have been deadlocked in a margin-of-error contest.
The Harris campaign has said all along that it has run a seven-state battleground strategy, sinking its vast resources into organization, building infrastructure in rural areas and outpacing Republicans in ad spending.
They deserve to lose everything for what they’ve done.
It’ll be massive & priceless.
It’s also going to help Newsom a lot in his 2028 run.
Many Michigan residents also have homes in FL and AZ. They know that MI is a dying state.
We were being assured a couple of months ago that NC was absolutely not even a “swing state” (actually, it always was) and Trump was going to win easily. It was never going to be “easy”.
What with the horrendous response of Biden-Harris-FEMA to the recent disaster, Trump SHOULD win NC by 10 points (spoiler alert: he won’t). NC is still a closely divided state as it has been in recent years, but if Trump wins by 1% that’s good enough.
Thanks to the Josh Stein (and his fellow media tribalists) campaign of lies and hate against gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, the GOP may get slaughtered down the ballot for other statewide offices, but Trump still SHOULD win and the GOP is still going to pick up 3 U.S. House seats in NC thanks to the removal of the Democrat gerrymander which prevailed in 2020 and 2022.
“Democrats brace for a possible crack in the blue wall and signs of North Carolina slipping”
Bracing? No. They are busy plotting and scheming on where best to cheat and how much is needed, etc.
The subtle media bias: “Biden’s stubbornly low ratings on the economy and immigration..”
I did a look at North Carolina’s population gain.
A substantial amount comes from Virginia and Florida. It’s not all California.
Polling quality is pretty good. They don’t say huge Dem inroads there.
They deserve worse.
If NBC is reporting this .... the blue hasn’t just cracked ... it’s completely collapsed.
MAGAnami!!
MOST of HArris’ vote in Nevada are from Illegals working in the HOSPITALITY industry in LV & RENO.
They know they're in real trouble.
I voted in NC yeasterday at lunch,
I went to the polling station and the line was an hour long to early vote....not kidding.
The GOP sample ballot is Yellow.
Everyone in line had a yellow sample ballot except maybe less then five people in that huge line.
I know the party registration breakdown in my district is about 50/50 btw.
So take it for what its worth i guess.
I honestly think Kamala should send drjill to campaign in
the “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Those states have paved the path to the White House for the last two Democratic presidents
and with drjill campaigning for Kamala, it will smooth the way for an easy Trump victory.
“The subtle media bias: “Biden’s stubbornly low ratings on the economy and immigration..””
Is it possible to hate the democrat media whores enough???
They should be very worried about VA
North Carolina was never within their grasp.
Wayne County will once again deliver.
FFS. NORTH CAROLINA WAS NEVER EVER A SWING STATE.
Rs crushed it5 with new voter registration but Trump won it TWO TIMES before that. God these people are morons. Trump wins by 4 easy.
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