Posted on 10/18/2024 7:09:25 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The mainstream media, which leans heavily Democratic, would have us believe the presidential race is neck and neck. An NBC poll from October 4-8 reports a 48%-48% tie, while ABC News/Ipsos shows Harris narrowly leading with 50% to Trump’s 48%. However, the same sources and others cast serious doubt on the reliability of these polls.
Bread-and-Street Issues
Elections hinge on voters' top concerns, typically “bread-and-butter” issues. This year, public safety and illegal immigration have emerged as equally important -- what we might call “bread-and-street” issues. Voters are asking: Are our streets safe? Are our wallets secure?
A Pew Research survey (August-September 2024) lists the top concerns: the economy (81%), healthcare (65%), Supreme Court appointments (63%), foreign policy (62%), violent crime (61%), and immigration (61%). Notably absent from Pew’s poll is any mention of open borders or illegal immigration, which might have ranked higher.
Voters judge incumbents harshly when the economy falters or safety declines. Harris has struggled to distance herself from Biden, but she is effectively running as an incumbent, carrying the burden of a 54% job disapproval rating tied to the Biden administration. Moreover, the Pew poll shows voters trust Trump more on key issues: Trump leads Harris by 10% on the economy, 7% on immigration, and 6% on foreign policy.
The NBC poll also highlights Biden-Harris’ policy struggles, with 45% of respondents saying they’ve been harmed by his policies, compared to 25% saying they’ve benefited -- a 20-point negative gap. In contrast, Trump has a 13-point positive margin, giving him a 33-point advantage over Harris on household-impacting policies.
The ABC/Ipsos poll further shows 59% believe the economy is worsening, with only 23% seeing improvement. Among those frustrated with the economy, they trust Trump by a massive 53 points (74% to 21%),
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Here’s the interesting question .... Is This A Repeat of 1980 or 2020?
This election cycle bears striking similarities to the 1980 race between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Back then, a struggling economy, rising crime, and the Iran hostage crisis frustrated Americans. Despite polls showing a close race, Reagan won in a landslide, taking 51% of the popular vote and 489 electoral votes to Carter’s 49. Analysts attributed Reagan’s surge to a late shift in voter preferences, with 13% of voters changing their minds in the final days — a phenomenon known as the “big bang” theory, where undecided voters swing decisively toward change.
Could 2024 follow a similar path? With economic anxiety, public safety concerns, and frustration over illegal immigration, the conditions seem ripe for a similar shift. However, one major difference clouds this election: mail-in voting. In 2020, nearly 43% of voters cast their ballots by mail, with Biden winning two-thirds of the mail-in vote. In Pennsylvania alone, Biden questionably secured 76% of mail-in ballots compared to Trump’s 23%.
While mail-in voting may be less widespread this year, it remains significant, particularly in battleground states. With Democrats pushing for extended mail-in voting and post-Election Day ballot counting, this creates an unpredictable dynamic and raises concerns about potential fraud, bringing us the repeat of 2020.
Polls are worth a bucket of warm spit.
A) justify their existence.
B) be part of the campaign money laundering system and
C) use the polls to slant the narrative to RATS.
Agreed.....I tend not to believe ‘em whether good or bad.
Especially after the great red wave of 2020 that wasn’t.
The only “bread and butter” issue that seems to motivate any Democrat is the availability of abortion. I cannot begin to express how disgusted that makes me on so many fronts, but there it is.
“late shift in voter preferences”
That is political science mythology in the modern era.
99% of potential voters have made up their minds as of today.
Any “shift” of the 1% is statistical noise.
I recognize that it’s a terrible source for data, but I find comments on YouTube to be interesting. I frequently receive recommendations in which people overwhelming comment —
Kamala is clearly going to win this one. Early voting is strong and decisive in Kamala’s favor.
Everyone knows that Trump will totally destroy this country and create a fascist police state.
Everyone knows that the only hope for democracy is Kamala.
I reject all of that and I think Trump will win and that the GOP will get both houses of Congress. But if that happens, I think Democrats will shout “Rigged!” and refuse to accept the results. They will burn their own neighborhoods until Kamala is allowed to be president.
Personally, I think in a legitimate election, Trump wins easily. I’m talking an in-person, you can only vote once, paint your thumb purple type election...Trump wins hands-down.
I don’t trust our election process. Especially when you have crooked judges who will allow the possibility of NON-CITIZENS to vote. That is absolutely ridiculous.
Stop with the copium
The polls are all withing normal error bands. The EC vote is currently very close. Betting markets are leaning heavily to Trump, which is good, but there is some data it is being manipulated.
Focus locally. The .gov has a vested interest in keeping Trump out. IF enough red congress critters get in and enough state races go well, things will be OK.
Totally agree. We know the real problem is that the democrats will cheat until they win.
This is the same tactic the MSM used in 2016 and 2020. The polls are skewed any number of ways, from the wording of the questions to the fact that many people who favor(ed) Trump did not reveal it in interviews/polls. The MSM wants to create the impression that the race is close so they can point to these bogus polls to make an argument that they didn’t lose the election. They did the same thing in 2020. I think they are cheating this election, too. Why else would the block the view of the vote counting process in MI if cheating wasn’t going on?
Polls either by design or methodology undercount Republican voters. Many Republicans would never take a call from a stranger and discuss their personal political opinions.
Okay, look. One more time.
A poll is not a random array of phone calls or online responses. You risk some sort of systemic concentration of responses if you did that.
So what pollsters do is they have a turnout model based on sources. Age profile . . . the Census. Black/White/Hispanic, various sources. D/R/I . . . or this year I/R/D . . . also various sources.
They have a target mix of all these parameters that is to represent the electorate.
Only after they have decided on this turnout model do they pay any attention to the candidate preference of samples.
The turnout models are going to change as time passes. They elevated the woman/man ratio when Biden was replaced. They added the black totals in the ratio when Biden was replaced.
Then since then they have surveyed and found that maybe they should not have. There is no evidence Harris will outperform Biden with blacks. So that portion of turnout model is put back to where it was.
And so . . . you can get poll movement without anyone in the phone calls changing their minds. The effort to get representative samples does it.
There is a solid chance that no one has changed their minds since March. The poll movement was all turnout model adjustment, which says the only minds changed were the pollsters.
Note this would also mean debates changed no minds and interviews changed no minds.
I DID take a call last week...played games with the caller.
Good comments.
Many decades ago there were a significant number (say 5 to 10% of true “undecided” voters).
Those days are long gone.
Polling still has not caught up with that reality.
The “great red wave” sure turned out to be a “wimpy pink mist”, didn’t it?
Carville was the calmest I've ever seen him. He didn't really attack Trump or even give dire warnings about democracy's future. He did, however, smugly point out Trump's lack of a "ground game"; and then went on to express confidence in Kamala's. I don't think the Rat satraps are too concerned with pre-election polling.
I’m curious.....did they ever find the SCOTUS leaker? 🤔
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