Posted on 10/12/2024 8:39:16 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
For all the talk we've heard about the critical nature of early voting, you might be tempted to believe that the election is all but over already. Republican analysts have frequently blamed Donald Trump's loss in 2020 on the reluctance of traditionally conservative voters to vote early or by mail, claiming that they then had to play "catch up" on election day. The party stressed the need to overcome that reluctance and get their own voters to the polls in advance. Meanwhile, the Democrats continued their push going door to door, registering voters, and directing them to early voting locations.
Something seems to be playing out differently this year, however. New data providing early voting numbers show that things aren't playing out as expected. Not only is early voting not becoming increasingly prevalent but it's actually down from this point four years ago. And not by a small margin. So what's really going on here? (NY Post)
The dramatic rise in early voting has led many to think the election might be effectively over days or weeks before Election Day. The data thus far show that won’t be true — and the numbers aren’t comforting for Democrats.
Early voting is nowhere near what some people estimated: 4.2 million Americans have already cast their ballots, per John Couvillon, a Republican political strategist who provides daily updates on early and mail voting.
That sounds like a lot, but it’s a pittance compared with the 158.6 million votes ultimately cast in 2020.
More important, it’s significantly less than this point in 2020: Early voting is down 45%, Couvillon’s numbers show.
A difference of 5% could be written off as an estimation error. A drop of 45% suggests something very different taking place. It's certainly not a drop in voter education or awareness. You can't flip the channel on your cable news dial without being hit with a barrage of information about early voting options and locations. Talking heads drone on endlessly about the need to vote early and "bank your vote" lest something happen that might prevent you from voting in person. Yet people are staying away in droves as compared to the previous cycle.
Part of this can be blamed on the fact that some states still haven't opened their early voting ballots to begin counting, so the numbers should bounce back a bit in the next couple of weeks when that happens. But even those states will only partially make up the gap. The early voting numbers are simply down, and that doesn't bode well for Democrats who rely on early voting far more heavily than the GOP.
The less discussed factor is found in the number of requests for mail ballots. Those were down by 58% from 2020 in states that don’t send mail ballots to all voters. Those are arguably the most motivated voters who choose to go outside of the default system and take the time to specifically request an early ballot when one would otherwise not be sent to them. That number is currently down by more than half of what it was in 2020.
Steep declines of this type were seen in Georgia and North Carolina thus far. We can safely assume that some of that decline can be attributed to hurricane storm damage, but those numbers aren't expected to jump back up dramatically. Those windows of opportunity are scheduled to close fairly soon and most of those people probably have more pressing issues on their minds than early voting. Still, the numbers say what they say and some of the strongest mail-in ballot activity thus far has been seen in more reliably red districts. Take from that what you will, but the news doesn't look spectacular for Democrats at this point.
No COVID?
“it’s actually down from this point four years ago. And not by a small margin. So what’s really going on here?”
The fake ballots haven’t come in yet.
I'll vote, in person, well-informed on all issues and candidates of course, early on that day.
And, I'll encourage of all my GOPer friends to do the same.
Because no one was expecting such a flagrant steal in 2020 and now everybody is watching like a hawk?
I’ll agree to that
It could also be that a
lesson learned as to a heads
up on how many fake ballots
need to be printed to surpass
legal votes. I don’t blame
those who now want to keep
that info on the down-low.
I’m holding my vote close to
my chest, and will vote the
same as I have for 58 years.
Yes, that seems like the likeliest explanation. It seems pretty obvious, actually, so it’s surprising that the author appears to have missed it.
Ballots have already been mailed out in my State. It is a 100% vote-by-mail operation here.
I received my ballot this morning and had it voted and placed in a ballot collection box by this afternoon. I expect an e-mail receipt by Monday.
Supposedly, the ballots are stored and cannot be opened or counted until the end of Election Day. I will be an official election observer in my country to see if this is really so.
Dan Bongino pleads for Conservatives to vote early.
Not so much for illness, I’m guessing, but for measuring late-voting-day shenanigans.
If you vote early, include a U.S.P.S. Certified Slip on the envelope.
The rats figured out it was easier to steal the ballots and send them to a sweat shop to be filled out.
NC starts 10/17/24.
I intend to get there during the period, maybe not day one because of anticipated crowding but will definitely get there.
Glad to vote for DJT and Mark Robinson, along with all other REPUBLICANS. There are several Dumblecrats running unopposed, many of which are judges. I’ll just leave those blank...I do NOT fill in a circle for any dumble. I am rarely disappointed.
Many folks understand that if they early vote in a place that periodically publishes the numbers and distribution of the early votes during the early voting period the left can calculate how many paper ballots to ‘invent’ for submission immediately after the polls close. The only way to counter that situation is to vote in person as close to Nov 5 as early voting allows or in person on Nov 5. Do not use mail-in ballots - ever.
There is no reason why the Rs are not working on setting up provisional voting locations in the affected areas. Temporary polls can be set up immediately adjacent to the destroyed school, fire station, or library that may be out of commission.
There's a lot of total rejection of the system out there.
I can easily understand the decline in mail-in voting.
If you wouldn’t trust the USPS with cash, why in God’s name would you trust it with something as priceless as your vote.
“Steep declines of this type were seen in Georgia and North Carolina thus far.”
Early voting in NC doesn’t start until October 17th.
Am I mis-reading? Is the reference to 2020?
These assumptions are asinine. In 2020 we were in a forced government lockdown so of course there were more mail in ballots.
I’m guessing the obvious is hard to see...
A simple thing like a road closure or construction project delays can make for election access nightmares. Vote Early
People don’t want to vote in a fraudulent election.
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