Posted on 10/10/2024 9:09:01 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Republicans have known for years that the 2024 election would be a good one for them. After the 2022 midterm contests, Democrats and independents who caucus with them held 51 seats to the GOP's 49. But Republicans are facing an expansive map in 2024 with eight contested races in blue and purple states with only two competitive Republican seats up for grabs.
So the question has never been, "Will the GOP win a majority in the Senate?" The question has always been, "How big will that majority end up being?"
Democrats have already written off West Virginia, where Joe Manchin is retiring. Trump won West Virginia by nearly 40 points in 2020 and the state's popular Republican governor, Jim Justice, appears ready to coast to victory.
Elsewhere, there are several Senate races where the GOP is ahead or in striking distance. In the presidential battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin, Democratic incumbents are barely hanging on. In Montana, GOP Rep. Tim Sheehy is comfortably ahead of incumbent Democrat Jon Tester by nine points, according to the latest Sienna College battleground poll.
That same poll shows two Democratic Senate targets in Florida and Texas moving farther away. Senator Rick Scott in Florida has pulled away from Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by nine points. Senator Ted Cruz in Texas is up 48-45 over Colin Allred in a state that Democrats have been claiming they've been on the verge of flipping for the last decade.
"It seems to me that the map is starting to narrow a little bit," said one Democrat working on a purple-state Senate race.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
There's a chance the GOP could win a clean sweep of those eight seats held by Democrats. Realistically, Republicans should end up with a 52-53 seat majority.
But those incumbents in swing states have been through the wars before and know what it takes to win: Run as far away from the National Democratic Party as possible.
5 seat majority
Don’t count on it.
the way life has been going in America I can’t see why anyone would want to maintain course. Things have got to change. The counterculture drugged-up wimpy hippies have been in charge since the 60’s. Kamala picking Truman Capote for her running mate doesn’t help her connect with men like it was supposed to.
I’ll be OK with 58/42.
A guy can dream. But it’s possible.
I’ve kind of come to the conclusion that neither party wants a big majority, as along with that comes responsibility and consequences. With narrow margins both parties can claim they couldn’t get what they really wanted (what they tell voters they are trying to do for them) while at the same time they get what they (the politicians) actually want. This way, they can continue to screw over America and Americans while pleading “it’s the best we could do”. A solid majority means blame when things go wrong, and that’s the last thing any politician wants.
Have any of those sitting Dem senators appeared with Kamala Harris in their own states or elsewhere even? That’s a tell for how they think she can(’t) help htem and how she must be doing overall.
I’ll say minimum of 1, max of +3.
Even or -1. The nightmare scenario is even with Harris elected POTUS, making Walz the deciding vote in the Senate. There’s a small part of me that think the country deserves that scenario for allowing the collapse of the Republic.
Expect nothing.
Harris is sending AIDS looking old man to campaign to rural voters. Bill Clinton.
Notice Trump has young surrogates.
If you’re going for 58...you might as well go for 60.
>>Realistically, Republicans should end up with a 52-53 seat majority.
Ok, but factoring in the RINOs, what kind of majority will the Rats control?
Well, while we’re dreaming, let’s go for 60/40!
The Republicans in the senate fear being in the majority more than anything. Their artwork is in being a controlled opposition.
Strictly IMHO
After Cao’s debate performance I think we have a shot at VA.
If we get VA then we take the following: WV, OH, MT, AZ, WI, NV, and PA - That’s a pickup of 8 and gives us 57 I think. (assuming Rs keep all the other current seats).
Outside chance at MI.
Would love to see Garvey send Schiff to the trash heap in Cali, but I think that’s dreaming too much.
MI and CA gives us 60...any word on possible wobbliness in NJ? Technically it’s going to be an open seat without an incumbent running.
52 seats. That’s assuming Repubs pick up the Ohio seat, definitely possible if Trump wins big in OH, as he should.
ABORTION! ABORTION! ABORTION!
The Prolifers are terrible political allies. They don’t vote!
Meanwhile, the ardent baby killers will crawl to the polls if they have to.
Don’t count your seats before the election.
-PJ
That’s some real nice cherry-picking by Rich Moran as far as pretending that NV is some kind of likely pickup or that Rick Scott in Florida is “pulling away”.
Believe only the polls you like, ignore all that you don’t like, and everything just HAS to come up roses!
Even in PA, MI, WI.... for every recent poll that people are gushing about, there’s at least one which would cause boo-boo faces.
Premature chicken-counting is not recommended at this point.
Yes the Republicans will control the Senate next year (unless Rick Scott and Ted Cruz lose) but they were also going to have control following the 2022 elections when that big ol’ “red wave” was a mortal lock, remember?
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