"More Americans Identify as Republican Than Democrat. Here’s What That Means for the Election."
https://t.co/lzNNZV0k7q— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) October 9, 2024
Posted on 10/09/2024 9:06:09 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
One of the most important variables that sticks out in polls is one that few people seem to have noticed: for the first time ever in Gallup polls, Republicans have a Party ID edge over Democrats right before a presidential election.
"More Americans Identify as Republican Than Democrat. Here’s What That Means for the Election."
https://t.co/lzNNZV0k7q— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) October 9, 2024
NBC polls are showing the same thing, and the effect is not small. It makes a huge difference that the partisan tilt of the electorate has shifted.
Beneath the headline results in many polls, something unusual has turned up with big implications for politics: More voters are calling themselves Republicans than Democrats, suggesting that the GOP has its first durable lead in party identification in more than three decades.
The development gives former President Donald Trump an important structural advantage in the November election. But other factors could prove more important to the outcome. Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris still leads narrowly in many polls, in some cases because she does well with independent voters.
Bill McInturff, a GOP pollster who works on NBC News surveys, first noticed in May that more voters were calling themselves Republicans. “Wow, the biggest deal in polling is when lines cross, and for the first time in decades, Republicans now have the national edge on party ID,’’ he wrote. He called the development “the underrecognized game-changer for 2024.’’
In combined NBC polls this year, Republicans lead by 2 percentage points over Democrats, 42% to 40%, when voters were asked which party they identified with. That compares with Democratic leads of 6 points in 2020, 7 points in 2016 and 9 points in 2012.
“Republicans being 5 to 9 points down on party identification—that is like running uphill,’’ McInturff said. “We don’t know the election’s outcome, but we know Republicans have a better shot at doing well if party ID is functionally tied, with perhaps the smallest tilt toward Republicans.’’
Gallup also found more voters identifying as Republican than Democratic, by 3 points in its July-to-September surveys. It was the first time that the GOP had an advantage in the third quarter before a presidential election in Gallup surveys dating to 1992.
That swing in voter party preference is HUGE. Republicans are doing 8 points better in party ID than in 2020 and 9 points better than in 2016. Poll results are not determined by raw random samples these days because the data collection is not done randomly. It can't be because segments of the population are more or less likely to answer polls or be accessible to pollsters.
Every pollster has a "special sauce" they use to model the electorate, including weighting party identification. Honest pollsters aren't cooking the books so much as trying to reshape their data to fit their model of what a truly random sample would look like.
Of course, if the electorate doesn't look like the model, the poll will be wrong. This isn't a "margin of error," which is calculated by the number of data points. It is a fundamental problem because the data is not randomly collected. MOEs assume random samples.
That's a too long explanation for a simple problem: if Gallup and NBC are seeing a genuine shift in party ID, most polls will be wrong unless the correct for that shift, as well as the "shy" Trump voter.
The polls in the last two presidential elections were horribly off--well outside the margin of error--because the model of the electorate was wrong. Take a look at the polling from the last two cycles on this day from RealClearPolitics:
This Day In History: October 9, 2020: Biden +9.7 | October 9, 2016: Clinton +4.6
In their RCP poll average for today they have Harris up by 2. That is almost 8 points lower than Biden's average in 2020.
This race is TIGHT: within 2 points in all 7 critical battlegrounds. Harris barely wins if the result matches the polls.
But Trump crushes Harris & wins all the key states with a 2020 like poll miss. Harris, though, crushes Trump & wins all of them with a 2022 like poll miss. pic.twitter.com/b3ZJlbRI0w— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 20, 2024
Harry Enten of CNN does excellent poll analyses, bringing the complex down to the simple. He has done several segments about the difficulties of understanding polling and how to read them.
Why 2024 is way too close to call: The avg. state polling miss is 3.4 pts since 1972. All swing states are within that.
The true margin of error of state poll avgs. is way bigger (+/- 9.4 pts).
Anything from a Trump 300+ electoral vote win to Harris doing the same is possible. pic.twitter.com/ViMI4aXyCB— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 8, 2024
Some pollsters clearly cook the books, misrepresenting the electorate. But every pollster has to contend with the fact that poll data is not actually random, as necessary to get reliable polls. The statistics can be dead on, but the data has to be shaped before the analysis is done.
Who is a "likely voter?" "How many Republicans, Democrats, and Independents are there in real life?" "How do we collect the data since each demographic prefers to use different communication tools?" Dishonest pollsters can make the data say almost anything, and honest pollsters still have to make educated guesses to make the data make sense.
Of course, Democrats should be nervous.
Of course, Republicans should be nervous.
This is race has been consistently tight to a historic degree... It could break either way... or it could be as close in the vote count as the polls indicate now. pic.twitter.com/mTJ02639PN— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 9, 2024
Political consultants know the strengths and weaknesses of polls and are much more demanding than media outlets because they use the data not to generate interest in the story but to actually win elections. Horserace polls are entertainment for political junkies; internal campaign polls are for directing strategy.
"I just saw some new private polling that's very robust. Private polling," says @MarkHalperin. Kamala Harris "is in a lot of trouble … In the conversations I'm having with Trump people and Democrats with data, they are extremely bullish on Trump's chances in the last 48 hours. Extremely bullish." #KamalaHarris #Trump @2waytvapp
pic.twitter.com/KF3tSM2sLo— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 9, 2024
That's why you have seen a shift in Harris' strategy. Her internals clearly told her that what she was doing was not working. Those polls could be wrong, too, for the same reasons, of course, but the pollsters tend to be much more stringent about their methods because they need repeat clients who demand a lot more than the news outlets, who want exciting results, or results that say what they want them to.
The shift from Democrat to Republican preference is an indicator that the electorate has changed. It doesn't guarantee a Trump win since Independents ultimately choose the victor. But it does say something about the mood of the electorate. They are sour on Democrats.
With Kamala tying herself to Biden more publicly, this could have a major effect. Republicans sure think so, given how they have jumped on Harris' saying she would do everything as Biden has.
🚨 NEW AD pic.twitter.com/QAtPWIme91— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 9, 2024
The Harris campaign is scared, and they should be. I am not PREDICTING a loss, but I think a Trump victory--if trends continue--is more likely than not.
This is insane. Trump is polling nearly double digits better in Pennsylvania than both Biden 2020 and Clinton 2016 at this point in the race. WOW.
pic.twitter.com/ChZLF0bL0l— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 9, 2024
I suspect the public pollsters are, for the most part, trying to get reasonably accurate results, but if there is an error half as bad as the last two election cycle you should expect that Trump wins pretty easily in the electoral college. He may even have a shot at the popular vote.
Well see.
I will make a prediction: The polls won’t be off by anything like they were in the last two President races.
When you clear out the Romneys, Ryans, Cheneys, and Flakes, you pick up the disaffected and politically homeless. Less money more voters. That’s a trade any Republican should take, except maybe for the ones that make money off the old ways.
Interesting. If the pollsters are still modeling under the assumption of 38% Democrats, 33% Republican and 30% Independent (for example) when the real numbers are more like 36/40/24 then they are way over sampling democrats and independents. The “margin of error” doesn’t even matter. They will be off by anywhere from 4-10 points, plus or minus the margin of error. And if they are off by 4 or more, even then it will usually be outside the MOE if the sample size is large enough.
I have repeated this to my friends a few times. The polls are way off.
With the GOP at historic highs this year, why isn't Trump polling better? Trump supporters know that declaring support for him carries personal risks that can be easily avoided by not taking part in polls and surveys. There is little that pollsters can do to correct for this within their cost structure, but the unusually high support for the GOP they report is a good sign that Trump is doing well and gaining strength. Indeed, with Harris being such a weak candidate, her polling numbers may slowly deflate before the election.
In addition, there is a sinister aspect to much of the public polling in that showing a Trump lead too soon could upset the Left's plans to steal the election. Few public pollsters -- who are usually Left leaning academics -- are willing to take that kind of heat. They may instead slowly, almost as a group, edge toward showing a Trump lead in order to preserve credibility if they think that he will win. In effect, many public pollsters will place their bet only as the horses are in the home stretch.
In case you were wondering about my cynicism over public polling, be advised that like much else in politics, it is a racket of sorts.
It won’t matter what the polls say, just like it didn’t matter that Kamala~La~Ding~Dong never polled more than 4% in the 2020 DnC primaries: The machine picked the prostitute as their stalking horse candidate, to hell with the voters...
Clearly the deep swamp will do whatever it takes to steal the (s)election for that nasty ho, in their obsession to remove any semblance of the Culture of Excellence from America’s future.
America had a chance to save the country, back in 92’, throwing off the stank of the UniParty GlobalCap Empire, but that window was slammed shut...
Thank God we got Trump in 2016, that threw gave us a breather from “their” nonstop culture of death for a bit, but without Spiritual Sanity there is -0- chance of stopping “them” now.
Just the basic facts. Can you show me where it hurts?
later
It’s my understanding that the polls in both ‘16 and ‘20 underestimated DJT’s results by a noteworthy margin. IMO once can assume that the same will be true this year...TDS being the obvious reason.
I’ve heard it suggested that polling firms that are inclined to tilt in favor of the Rats attempt to make their final poll more accurate so that after the election they can point to *that* poll and say “see,we do take our job seriously”.
A good question would be, “do you thunk a Trump win would be the end of Democracy”. Or do you think a Trump victory in November is an acceptable outcome. I’d like to know the results of such a question within their models.
I will give you a few more points:
1) no Zuckerbucks this time
2) GA has new election laws
3) no Covid outrage driving people to vote against Trump
4) it’s the economy, stupid
5) I see more people in Michigan with Trump signs on their lawns than 2020
6) Harris is much more unlikeable than Biden, she reminds men of an ex-wife
7) hurricane response to Helene is awful, DeSantis walled off Milton from Kamala
A poll about polls... That’s statistics manipulating statistics to make people think what they want people to think.
I expect Trump to Repeat the 2016 map more or less and add a few states and possibly take the national vote.
If Kamala fully collapses and it’s sure looking like she’s collapsing from every trend I’ve seen, if she winds up fully collapsing, Trump will add more than a few states and absolutely take the popular vote.
It certainly seems like from Trump’s actions that they feel that have the EC locked and are playing for the national popular vote win at this point. Scheduling rally’s in seen blue areas over the coming weeks certainly is not what one would be doing if they didn’t feel confident about the win. They wouldn’t spend an ounce of time in deep blue states if they thought they were weak in the swing states.
Trump is clearly making a play for the popular vote with these actions and o definitely think the odds are in Trump’s favor to be the first Republican since 2004 to win the popular vote… which even if it is only by a single vote will be delicious
These are good points.
I noticed in my area and in a lot of other areas I traveled to in the 2020 election, there were no bide signs anywhere. I started wondering if they existed!
Now I see the Harris Walz signs. And these two are bigger morons than Biden. Not sure what’s going on, but I’m thinking they fixed their little slip-up in 2020.
The one where their guy got the most votes in American history, with no signs or bumper stickers anywhere.
I live in Maryland and have to travel the northeast fairly regularly for my job. I was just in super deep navy blue city. There were a handful of Harris signs and a decent amount of Trump ones. The circles I travel in are filled to the brim with Trump supporters.
We’re leaving tomorrow for a cross-Country road trip. I already have a Trump flag packed in case we come across any impromptu Trump rallies.
Men are turned off by, and don’t want to be associated with, the weird and woke. Simple as that.
I remember Obama spilling the beans a few months back when he said the most important thing was the poll numbers.
The cheat won’t work unless it appears feasible that Kamala could win. Imagine her down by 5-10 points and then winning in the wee hours of the night. That would raise too many red flags, even from life long dem voters.
EC
Hell, there has been no -0- accounting and/or public awareness about the 51 former "intelligence" officials that coordinated CONSPIRED with the Biden campaign to falsely cast doubt on LIE ABOUT an explosive New York Post story and label Hunter Biden's laptop as ‘Russian disinformation.’
https://intelligence.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=1432
"They" even got away with dragging Trump through illegitimate charges in Congress, that were so easy to disprove even a liar-for-hire like Mueller washed his hands of ALL of it...
Sorry, I know that Trump should/could "win" again, but I have no faith in a people that won't hold traitors to account.
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