and get all your friends out to vote
Posted on 10/08/2024 7:24:12 AM PDT by thegagline
With a month to go until the only poll that matters, former President Donald Trump has roared back into a substantial lead in our election model.
A slew of recent surveys has shown him with leads in key battleground states. And when the data are processed through our DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners model it shows the former president winning in 56.7 percent of the simulations.
As ever, the road to the White House appears to run through Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral college votes.
For weeks it has been in 'tossup' territory. Now the model moves it to 'lean Trump' in what could be a decisive moment in the election race. Lose that state, and Vice President Kamala Harris would struggle to triumph even if she wins Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
With fewer paths to electoral college victory, Harris wins in only 43.2 percent of the simulations. It means that, overall, Trump moves out to a 13-point lead from just five points earlier in the week.
To be clear, this is not like a poll lead. Instead, it shows the frequency with which Trump wins the electoral college when our model crunches through all the thousands of possible permutations of states using all the latest available data (along with decades worth of election results combined with economic data.)
Until now his highest point was a 10-point advantage last month, but that number has waxed and waned with fresh inputs of data. And the race remains incredibly close.
Harris is on course to win the popular vote (as Democrats have done in seven of the last eight elections.)
Minnesota is looking safer than ever for her, solidifying her electoral college floor, and she is two points stronger in Michigan, where both she and Trump campaigned Thursday.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Trump Train firing.....!!!
“Trump Train Firing”
On 16 Cylinders.
With AI, Elon’s money, super computers, and Trump’s quality pollsters, I would have to believe that they can program computers to create all kinds of scenarios that will allow them to better target voters they need.
This is more like it. Harris is showing up in media interviews more often - maybe the idiots thinking of voting for her are actually being woken up to just how incompetent she is.
the fact that “everything hinges on Pennsylvania” doesn’t make me feel like this election is fraud proof. Pennsylvania is probably the worst state.
would be better to win WI and MI...but neither of them are great, either on the fraud front.
BTTT
Unfortunately, Trump needs at least one of PA, MI, WI, OR VA to win. This assumes AZ, NC, or GA aren’t stolen from him. A repeat of 2016 or 2020 is a real possibility.
Unfortunately, Trump needs at least one of PA, MI, WI, OR VA to win.
~~~
PA, MI, and WI are part of the “Blue Wall” that Trump took in 2016 to surprise all the experts. I think he did that when he focused on bad trade deals and blue collar issues.
I agree with you. I see boarded up counting offices in Philly going on for weeks until they find a “winner”.
Pennsylvania is the key. And it will come down to late night ballot box stuffing in Philadelphia.
Counting the mail-in-ballots takes a long time. Voting-by-Mail is how the communists took control in 2008. Nothing will change.
Harris is doing all these interviews because she and her advisors know she is losing.
It’s bad for the Democrats when they are this desperate when they had to know she’d screw them up.
I almost think the slightly fair questioning of her policies is mostly an attempt to salvage what little credibility they have left.
bttt
*if your friends are Democrats, tell them that Election Day is November 6.
Nice try but some mamby-pamby judge would order the votes counted anyway.
*if your friends are Democrats, tell them that Election Day is November 6.
~~~
If your friends are democrats, you probably haven’t been through rough times with them yet
Right. Don’t Democrats always vote on Wednesday? Republicans on Tuesday, Democrats on Wednesday. Yes; that’s right 😉
Hunt Vote or be hunted.
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