Posted on 10/03/2024 9:14:21 PM PDT by delta7
This will result in the loss of supplies of about 6 bln cubic meters of natural gas to the EU in the first quarter of 2025 alone, the International Energy Agency noted MOSCOW, October 3. /TASS/. The International Energy Agency (IEA) views the risk of full stop of Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine as significant after 2024 and includes it into its forecast for the gas market in the next year.
"The future of Russian gas transit via Ukraine is a key uncertainty ahead of the 2024/25 winter, as Russia’s gas transit contract with Ukraine expires at the end of 2024. This forecast assumes no Russian piped gas deliveries via Ukraine to Europe from January 2025," IEA said in its report.
This will result in the loss of supplies of about 6 bln cubic meters of natural gas to the EU in the first quarter of 2025 alone, while the withdrawal of volumes will stand at 15 bln cubic meters over the year, IEA noted.
No wonder Germany is finally talking negotiations, winter is around the corner.
For the war cheerleaders doubting the source ( Tass) , you can search the IEA news and find a much more bleaker picture….I won’t spoon feed you.
More for the war cheerleaders….
Coming winter ‘sternest test yet for Ukraine IEA
The country has lost more than two-thirds of its electricity production capacity, the agency has said
Ukraine is in for a tough winter, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest report published on Thursday. It estimated that the country has lost more than two-thirds of its power production capacity since the outbreak of the conflict with Russia in early 2022….. According to the IEA, this year’s wave of attacks has put Ukraine’s ability to generate enough power during peak demand this winter in jeopardy. The agency noted that while rolling blackouts and other interruptions to supply have effectively “become the norm” in the summer, the heating season could bring even more “severe disruptions to hospitals, schools and other key institutions.”
“The situation in Ukraine is one of the most pressing energy security issues in the world today. Ukraine’s energy system has made it through the past two winters... But this winter will be, by far, its sternest test yet,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated on Thursday while presenting the report.
Birol’s agency laid out a ten-point action plan aimed at assisting Ukraine to solve its pressing energy security issues. The suggested measures include improving the physical and cyber security of critical energy infrastructure, speeding up the delivery of equipment and spare parts for repairs, investing in energy efficiency, and boosting electricity and gas imports from the EU.
Estimates on how much power generation capacity Ukraine has lost vary, but most experts agree that power cuts and blackouts will be unavoidable this winter…….”
https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/274613382/coming-winter-sternest-test-yet-for-ukraine-iea
….and the western MSM narrative still claim the Ukies are somehow “ winning “.
EU natural gas consumption was 319.5 bln cubic meters in 2023
That's about 4.6% of supply. It's more a pain to the countries that were still getting these imports in 2024.
The European Commission and the vast majority of EU member states have supported Ukraine’s decision not to extend its agreement with Russia. This aligns with the EU’s goal of completely phasing out imports of Russian hydrocarbons, a policy reaffirmed by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. However, some individual countries, notably Hungary, remain sceptical of this approach. In addition, several EU member states (Slovakia, Austria, to a lesser extent the Czech Republic, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, and Italy) continue to depend to varying degrees on the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory. For some of these nations, maintaining the option of importing gas from Russia via Ukrainian pipelines is economically advantageous; others, such as Slovakia, continue to benefit financially from transit, although the flows and profits are much lower than they were before the war.
...
For Russia, the loss of control over the Sudzha metering station has provided a pretext to halt its shipments through Ukraine, as it is now impossible to accurately measure how much gas is entering the Ukrainian network. Despite this, Gazprom has chosen not to take this step, and gas transit has continued. This decision is primarily driven by the profitability of the EU market, which has become especially important given Gazprom’s financial difficulties since 2023. Gas sales to the EU via this route generate approximately $2bn, accounting for around a quarter of the company’s export revenue. Additionally, Russia currently lacks the infrastructure to divert all the gas flowing through Ukraine to alternative routes, due to capacity constraints with TurkStream and political limitations affecting the idle Yamal pipeline and one undamaged line of Nord Stream 2.
Why don’t the Ukrainians have more solar panels and windmills? That would be the key to energy independence.
Nat gas delivery is contracted years in advance, and Russia has honored those contracts, while not taking new ones. Now they are expiring and Russia is not obligated to sell or supply gas to Europe.
Unfortunately for Ukraine and Europe, The Lord scheduled winter again, despite Ukrainian and Western Virtue Signalling. If he has a sense of humor, it will be a cold one, "caused" by "Climate Change".
There is no warmth in the future for Europe and Ukraine, the gas will go to Asia and raise the standard of living there.
Navy Patriot wrote:
“One of the primary economic causes of this war was Ukraine’s Piracy of Russian gas shipped through Ukraine’s pipelines.”
No search results show that, but interesting, and I’ll keep after that bit.
Otherwise, the current (and presumably last for a while) gas pipeline contract between Russia and Ukraine was four 5 years, and that will expire as noted above.
Meanwhile Russian natural gas continues to flow through other pipelines to the west. Online sources “say” the volume of that gas supply is roughly a match re the volume currently running through Ukraine.
“four” = *for*
Like I said...Germany will beg Russia to open the one Nord Stream line that is in tact.
My guess is the deluded EU thought they would be buying their gas off of Zelenskyy by now.
Not sorry to break it to you - NordStream is NEVER coming back.
The EU has reliable suppliers now, they don’t need an unreliable supplier like Russia that breaks contracts and stop supplying gas arbritralily because of political games.
Russia is probably permanently shut out of Europe now, thanks to Putin’s stupidity.
Oh well, Russia had a good run for a while ... but now all they’ve got is China
lol
It worked with the Arabic Kingdoms of the Middle East, with the Balkans themselves, with Serbia, not so much with Georgia.
Ukraine was the last sucker to take the bait, and the worst Degenerate group to sign on.
Now they've got a problem delivering the loot.
Castreau still diddling truckers and Christians like the good Marxist he is?
Still angry and frustrated?
Guess Russia is still sucking on the battlefield, huh?
32nd month already of Putin’s “simple, easy 1-month conquest of Ukraine”!
lol
This is mostly to punish Hungary, Serbia, and other trapped countries that don’t behave ‘properly’, regarding Population Replacement and Grooming. Without these countries on board, starting World War 3 is far more difficult for both NATO and and the EU, but no doubt they’ll try anyway.
“It estimated that the country has lost more than two-thirds of its power production capacity since the outbreak of the conflict with Russia”
The ONLY reason that one-third of their generation capacity still exists is that Russia won’t target their nuclear power plants (unlike the Neocons who are almost begging for a meltdown in Ukraine by attacking the Zaporizhzhia facility) - and Ukraine has a huge nuclear facility in the West that continues to operate normally.
But I wouldn’t be surprised if some of their larger substations downstream of the nuke, and some of their ties to Europe, have ‘issues’ this winter, and if so, Europe can expect another 10 or 20 million refugees.
Yup. That was their plan. Now they have a real big problem.. they provoked they bear and dragon thinking they could control everything, now things are going sideways and they finally figured out you can’t just turn war on and off; a lesson most learn after it’s far too late to change anything.
I saw and article in the Hill where democrats were saying that since Israel is refusing to follow the “guidance” of the US in declaring a cease fire until the election in the US is over. They are saying refusing to make the Biden administration look good before elections, like an obedient dog should, well that that amounts to election interference by Israel.
Nope, don’t care about Russia or Putin one way or the other, allowing me to objectively enjoy the collapse of GloboHomoPedoNazi Ukraine and NeoNazi Canuckistan whose Traitor Limey ancestors American Patriots should have driven off of North America after 1775.
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