Posted on 09/12/2024 10:09:42 AM PDT by RandFan
Montana’s Jon Tester and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown lead the list of Roll Call’s most vulnerable senators...
Republicans need a net gain of two seats to take the majority next year — or one seat and control of the White House, since the vice president breaks ties. And with Manchin’s retirement, the GOP is all but guaranteed to pick up the seat in ruby-red West Virginia.
While our list looks only at vulnerable incumbents, there are several high-profile open seats whose outcomes will also shape the balance of power in the chamber.
One of the biggest Senate battlegrounds is in Arizona, where Republican Kari Lake is running against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates that race Tilt Democratic.
In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers are vying for a seat being vacated by Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Inside Elections also rates that race Tilt Democratic.
The GOP’s hopes in Maryland rest with former Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican who has been outspoken about his disagreements with presidential nominee Donald Trump. He’s facing Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in a race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin. The contest is rated Likely Democratic, a nod to the state’s deep-blue underpinnings.
There are two other races worth keeping an eye on as the campaign season winds down.
Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico was showing signs he might be vulnerable in his reelection battle against Republican Nella Domenici, the former chief financial officer of a large hedge fund who is the daughter of former Sen. Pete Domenici. Heinrich began airing ads in June, and he was among the Democrats publicly calling for President Joe Biden to drop his reelection bid.
(Excerpt) Read more at rollcall.com ...
Funny isn't it....
Arizona is still a mail in voting state. Dems will always win until that changes.
The article is a lot of “well, duh”.
As far as the Senate:
WV is a given; MT looks fairly good for now but don’t count any chickens yet; OH is a tossup at best, but a “tossup” against a Rat incumbent isn’t the worst thing. It means there’s a decent chance. It doesn’t mean there’s a guarantee. Sorry.
All other potential pickups are dreams, but if we wish really hard one of those dreams might come true.
The most likely one would be Michigan, even though Democrats are pulling out all the stops to sabotage anything even remotely resembling election integrity. Next on the list could be Pennsylvania. Casey is a dumb as a chimp, but so are a slight majority of PA voters.
Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin or — LOL! — New Mexico (as referenced in the article)? Keep dreaming. Things are going to have to change a lot in the next 8 weeks or so for any of those fairy tales to have a happy ending.
If the GOP gets West Virginia and Montana and nothing more, and doesn’t lose Florida or Texas, then it’s a good night at the Senate level.
But we’ll still have people wailing and being bitterly disappointed — just like in 2022 — because their idiotic assumption of “muh red wayve” didn’t come true and they didn’t find *everything* they wanted under the Christmas tree.
This is where the dems will cheat. Harri-ass isn’t going to win so the strategy is to steal certain senate and congressional seats.
BINGO!
MI will happily cheat in any way possible, they think the Jill Stein mess is ancient history.
Dems will be counting ballots for weeks if that’s what they have to do to win.
Ted Cruz is in a tight race in Texas. Hopefully he can still win.
Why is cruz in a tight race?
I get it that the major metro areas (Dallas, Houston, etc) have gone red but the rest of the state is pretty red.
Does Cruz have bad constituent services or some sort of rep among voters that make people not wanna vote for him?
He’s beeing outspent and the polls are close if you can believe them.
I get it that the major metro areas (Dallas, Houston, etc) have gone red but the rest of the state is pretty red."
Written several months ago, but breaks down the state of Texas very well, politically and demographically, and addresses the trouble Ted Cruz is having and has BEEN having for quite a while:
[Texas] The 2024 Senate Race Has Been Called!
Texas as a whole is purple already. Not red. The margins of the 2022 statewide elections, which were good for the GOP, are fairly meaningless now and everything is going to be a lot closer in 2024.
The major metro areas are bad and getting worse daily. The rest of the state is fine. The unknown factor is to what degree the invasion of illegals is going to push Texas further left THIS year. In a few years, there's a good chance we'll be looking back and marveling that Texas held out as long as it did.
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