Donald Trump and Kamala Harris dead even in battleground states amid wide gender gap: poll

The New York Post ^ | 08/18/2024 | Ryan King

[going hot]

the visceral reaction to this decision, being women lost a fundamental right,

In which country did this happen?

[thegagline]

Hard to imagine anyone could vote for that idiot Harris!

There is a lot of stupidity out there. For a taste of the idiocy, just watch the MSM or talk to your average public school teacher.

[philman_36]

The visceral reaction to this decision, being women lost a fundamental right, will compel many white suburban women to vote for Democrats.

I'm not buying that line and many others aren't either, no matter how strongly it gets pushed. EVERYBODY knows it is a State issue now and not a Federal issue. Abortion has NO bearing on this election.

The harder you and people like you push this point the more ridiculous you look.

[philman_36]

Out there? There is stupidity right here. You and your whole stupid abortion is gonna win it for the Dems routine.

[philman_36]

It's a visceral reaction, not that they actually lost any right.

In other words, word games are being given played.

[philman_36]

...word games are being given played.

[FLT-bird]

Push polls not accounting for response bias. ie just pure propaganda.

[desertsolitaire]

I don’t have a crystal ball to the best response to this issue but the Don’s response to blistering hate questions on this is frank, correctly nuanced and reflects respect that many of us differ on positions regarding abortion and the exceptions. Lastly, no meaningful changes will occur if Republicans don’t win so please, no extreme positions guaranteed to lose nicely, on principle. Done losing.

[faucetman]

NONSENSE! FORGET ALL POLLS!

THEY ARE ALL RIGGED!

Don’t waste your time, or mine, posting about stupid BULLSHIRT polls.

[2nd Amendment]

I’m getting tired of this gaslighting about polls. Actually I don’t like Trump. I don.t like his personality. But I am eagerly going to vote for him. I don’t care about his overwrought verbal tendencies. He almost gave his life for this country as well as his freedom and fortune. If 20% of Americans are changing their vote because Kommielaw gives them joy, w’ere shot anyway. Trump is a great man who has suffered endlessly for exposing the fake news media.

[Political Junkie Too]

The sample in this poll is producing confusing results.

1. Blacks say they are doing financially the best of all groups.
2. Democrats say they have the most extra money to spend of all the groups.
3. Democrats have dismissed the border and immigration as a factor in the election.
4. Young voters say they have extra money to spend, despite student debt being a major administration issue.
5. Over-sampling of women and under-sampling of minorities are potentially skewing this poll's results.

Poll Demographics:

Party Affiliation (seems okay to me):

• Democrat: 34.2%
• Republican: 33.4%
• Independent: 30.9%

Gender

• Male: 47.4%
• Female: 52.6%

I don't know why this isn't more even. Most polls have been +4 or +5 women over men. I suspect this is tilting the abortion result, the Harris favorable result, and the Trump unfavorable result.

Race

• White: 72.0%
• Black: 11.2%
• Hispanic: 10.1%
• Other: 6.7%

Based on other polls, CBS News/YouGov has been over-sampling white people by +5 to +7 versus other polls. This is diluting the impact of disaffected minorities.

Age

• < 30: 15.4%
• 30-44: 22.9%
• 35-64: 35%
• 65+: 26.8%

I haven't been looking at age stratification across polls, so I don't know how aligned this distribution is. One question, though: is the 35-64 range the prime abortion cohort?

Now onto the questions...

Q2: How would you rate the condition of the national economy today?

	Party ID			Gender		Race			Age
Response	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Black	Hisp	<30	30-44	35-64	65+
Very/Fairly Good	35%	65%	28%	13%	40%	35%	34%	49%	37%	45%	35%	32%	34%
Fairly/Very Bad	62%	30%	69%	86%	58%	64%	64%	46%	60%	50%	61%	65%	64%

Analysis: I'm not surprised at the Democrat response, but in what universe is the black population doing better than anyone else economically?

---

Q32: How would you describe your personal/household financial situation?

	Party ID			Gender		Race			Age
Response	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Black	Hisp	<30	30-44	35-64	65+
I live comfortably and am able to save money	16%	22%	16%	11%	18%	14%	17%	13%	12%	18%	17%	14%	18%
I meet my basic expenses with a little left over for extras	33%	37%	31%	30%	36%	30%	34%	30%	31%	39%	33%	28%	34%
I have just enough to meet my basic expenses	33%	28%	34%	39%	31%	35%	32%	36%	35%	29%	29%	36%	35%
I don't have enough to meet my basic expenses	18%	13%	19%	20%	15%	21%	17%	21%	22%	13%	21%	22%	15%

Analysis:For the groups that say they are doing well financially:

• Democrats are doing much better than Republicans and Independents.
• The under-30 age group says they are able to save or have some money left over for extras. Isn't this the group that Democrats are targeting for college loan forgiveness?

---

Q5: If the 2024 presidential election were being held today between Kamala Harris, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, who would you vote for?

	Party ID			Gender		Race			Age
Response	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Black	Hisp	<30	30-44	35-64	65+
Kamala Harris	51%	98%	45%	5%	45%	56%	44%	82%	58%	64%	59%	47%	43%
Donald Trump	48%	2%	50%	94%	54%	44%	56%	17%	41%	35%	41%	52%	57%

Analysis:

• As expected, women and young voters are voting for Harris, while men and seniors are voting for Trump.
• Independents are breaking for Trump.
• Minorities are breaking for Harris.

---

Q31: Factors in Vote for President

	Party ID			Gender		Race			Age
Response	All	Dem	Ind	Rep	Male	Female	White	Black	Hisp	<30	30-44	35-64	65+
Crime
Major factor	62%	48%	57%	81%	61%	63%	61%	73%	64%	52%	55%	64%	70%
Minor factor	30%	39%	34%	16%	29%	30%	30%	23%	28%	35%	34%	30%	24%
Not a factor	8%	13%	9%	3%	9%	7%	9%	4%	8%	13%	11%	6%	6%
Gun Policy
Major factor	58%	67%	51%	54%	54%	62%	56%	70%	62%	55%	57%	56%	63%
Minor factor	30%	27%	33%	31%	31%	29%	32%	21%	28%	33%	31%	31%	26%
Not a factor	12%	6%	16%	15%	15%	9%	12%	9%	9%	11%	12%	13%	11%
Abortion
Major factor	51%	74%	45%	35%	44%	58%	50%	59%	54%	58%	56%	46%	52%
Minor factor	28%	20%	34%	29%	30%	25%	27%	26%	29%	29%	29%	29%	24%
Not a factor	21%	6%	26%	31%	26%	17%	23%	15%	17%	13%	15%	25%	24%
Inflation
Major factor	76%	59%	77%	92%	75%	77%	75%	79%	79%	72%	74%	78%	76%
Minor factor	20%	33%	19%	6%	19%	20%	20%	16%	18%	23%	20%	18%	19%
Not a factor	4%	8%	4%	1%	6%	3%	5%	5%	3%	5%	6%	4%	4%
The Economy
Major factor	83%	59%	84%	95%	82%	84%	83%	87%	83%	78%	83%	84%	85%
Minor factor	15%	26%	13%	4%	15%	14%	15%	11%	16%	18%	15%	14%	13%
Not a factor	2%	3%	3%	1%	3%	2%	2%	2%	1%	4%	2%	2%	2%
The state of democracy
Major factor	74%	84%	71%	68%	72%	76%	74%	79%	72%	65%	70%	77%	78%
Minor factor	18%	13%	19%	22%	18%	18%	18%	15%	20%	26%	21%	15%	14%
Not a factor	8%	3%	10%	10%	10%	6%	8%	6%	8%	9%	9%	7%	8%
The U.S.-Mexico border
Major factor	56%	28%	55%	87%	60%	53%	60%	41%	54%	40%	46%	62%	66%
Minor factor	31%	50%	32%	10%	28%	34%	29%	43%	31%	39%	35%	28%	28%
Not a factor	13%	21%	13%	3%	12%	13%	11%	16%	15%	21%	18%	10%	6%

Analysis: In order of importance of Major Factor

1. The economy (83%)
   • Republicans stand out as making this their highest factor in the election.
   • Blacks are the second highest group that prioritize the economy. Note that they were the highest group that felt the economy was doing fairly good or very good.
   • The Democrats are the lowest group that ranks the economy as a major factor.

2. Inflation (76%)
   • As expected, practically all Republicans think inflation is a major issue, and Democrats as a group do not.
   • Interestingly, seniors in this poll are not more concerned about inflation than any other group.

3. The state of democracy (74%)
   • The Democrats have been pushing "democracy" as the highest issue, and as a group, Democrats rank this even higher than abortion?

4. The U.S.-Mexico border (56%)
   • This ranked 2nd from the bottom. Unbelievable to me.
   • The Democrats ranked the border as the least important issue to them. Democrats are protecting Harris's "border czar" accountability and responsibility by dismissing the border as an issue altogether.

5. Abortion (51%)
   • I'm surprised that abortion was ranked as the lowest factor in the election.
   • Otherwise, all the usual groups ranked abortion higher than the other groups in this category.

6. I chose not to detail the remaining factors:
   • Issues of race and diversity (39%)
   • The war between Israel and Hamas (37%)
   • Climate change (39%)

---

-PJ

[bantam]

What the h3ll does voting against a woman have to with security 🤪
A strong woman like Margaret Thatcher, I could vote for that kinda woman!

[thegagline]

Thank you for posting this. A terrific breakdown and assessment of this poll.

[Churchillspirit]

Do I have to talk to them ? :)

[Political Junkie Too]

I think the "tell" was in four areas:

1. The "democracy" question
   • This is not a national issue. It's a Democrat party narrative, the "Trump's a dictator," or the Washington Post's "Democracy dies in darkness" nonsense; all while the Democrats nullified the entire 2024 primary that they orchestrated in the first place and installed their own candidate!

   • When crafting a model of anything, one has to be careful not to duplicate (or overweight) selection criteria. The fact that the "democracy" election factor was there at all (and that it ranked so highly overall and with Democrats) tells me that that the sample was overweighted with Democrats because only Democrats would react so strongly to that election factor.

2. Women
   • CBS/YouGov has been consistently overweighting women compared to other pollsters. That's having a significant impact on the abortion issue, as well as support for the first woman president.

   • The fact that abortion was ranked near the bottom of election factors despite having a +4 weighting of women in the sample tells me that something else is going on with this sample.

3. Minorities
   • The underweighting of minorities is showing up in the financial questions. That more African-Americans than any other group said the economy was very good or fairly good tells me that this sample missed a significant portion of that population.

   • Contrast that to the crime and guns questions where African-Americans overwhelmingly ranked them as issues. I would think that well-off African-Americans who are concerned about crime and guns would be natural Trump supporters, but Trump is only getting 17% of the black vote in this sample. That's way below what the consensus is for Trump's African-American support.

4. Young voters
   • 18% of people under 30 said they lived comfortably and are saving money. Another 39% say they have some money left over for "extras."

   • This belies the Democrat message that they must defy the Supreme Court and forgive student loan debt. This is another sign that the poll sample is messed up or the LAAP-dog media is lying about the true nature of the issue.

-PJ