[thegagline]

Thank you for posting this. A terrific breakdown and assessment of this poll.

[Political Junkie Too]

I think the "tell" was in four areas:

1. The "democracy" question
   • This is not a national issue. It's a Democrat party narrative, the "Trump's a dictator," or the Washington Post's "Democracy dies in darkness" nonsense; all while the Democrats nullified the entire 2024 primary that they orchestrated in the first place and installed their own candidate!

   • When crafting a model of anything, one has to be careful not to duplicate (or overweight) selection criteria. The fact that the "democracy" election factor was there at all (and that it ranked so highly overall and with Democrats) tells me that that the sample was overweighted with Democrats because only Democrats would react so strongly to that election factor.

2. Women
   • CBS/YouGov has been consistently overweighting women compared to other pollsters. That's having a significant impact on the abortion issue, as well as support for the first woman president.

   • The fact that abortion was ranked near the bottom of election factors despite having a +4 weighting of women in the sample tells me that something else is going on with this sample.

3. Minorities
   • The underweighting of minorities is showing up in the financial questions. That more African-Americans than any other group said the economy was very good or fairly good tells me that this sample missed a significant portion of that population.

   • Contrast that to the crime and guns questions where African-Americans overwhelmingly ranked them as issues. I would think that well-off African-Americans who are concerned about crime and guns would be natural Trump supporters, but Trump is only getting 17% of the black vote in this sample. That's way below what the consensus is for Trump's African-American support.

4. Young voters
   • 18% of people under 30 said they lived comfortably and are saving money. Another 39% say they have some money left over for "extras."

   • This belies the Democrat message that they must defy the Supreme Court and forgive student loan debt. This is another sign that the poll sample is messed up or the LAAP-dog media is lying about the true nature of the issue.

-PJ