Posted on 08/11/2024 5:38:32 PM PDT by libh8er
A new survey of likely voters from Trafalgar Group has former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in four key swing states.
The poll released Friday shows Trump leading Harris by 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania 46% to 44%, 1 point in Arizona 48% to 47%, 3 points in Nevada at 48% to 45%, and 4 points in North Carolina 49% to 45%.
The polls come as voters have adjusted to the reality of Harris taking over the top of the Democratic ticket from President Joe Biden, who announced in July that he was no longer seeking reelection. This week, Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
While Trump has consistently polled well in North Carolina and Nevada this election cycle, Pennsylvania and Arizona have fluctuated greatly. With the electoral map shifting daily, Pennsylvania might be the key to victory for either candidate with Trump winning the state in 2016 and Biden taking it in 2020.
Last week, CNN's Harry Enten said that even if Harris were to lose Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, she could still gain the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the election by winning Pennsylvania.
The Trafalgar Group poll was taken Aug. 6-8 among 1,000 likely voters in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The poll did not cite a sampling error.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
Sounds about right. So the advantage goes to the Democrats.
“Some pollsters expect a 55/45 turnout of women vs men. Some expect a 12% black turnout vs others expecting 10%.
Sounds about right. So the advantage goes to the Democrats.”
This was a generic example. Not a comparison of actual pollster choices.
But if you’re curious:
From ChatGPT:
Blacks are 13.5% of US population (incl children)
63% of the adult black population is registered to vote.
2020 62% of eligible black voters turned out.
So with 13.6% of the population and 65% turning out, that’s 8.84% of the entire US population. Using a 12% of total population as black votes (to which the 75/25 Harris/Trump ratio would apply) is somewhat absurd.
Btw Obama only got 67% black turnout. (of registered)
CBSNews explicitly says they oversampled blacks — and only managed a 2-3% Harris increase. It’s just not that many votes in the reservoir
Seth Keshel, who has been crunching AZ numbers for a few years, says that Trump can even lose Maricopa and still win the state with the massive shifts going on in all the other counties.
This is horse pucky. No way Trump wins PA by more than he wins AZ.
Today’s Maricopa Co. registration numbers R+160,400. That’s 30,000 MORE than the ENTIRE STATE in 2020. Overall MC will be R+2-3 on ED, AZ will be at least 6.6 maybe R+7. Trump wins AZ by 3-4 points.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.