Sounds about right. So the advantage goes to the Democrats.
“Some pollsters expect a 55/45 turnout of women vs men. Some expect a 12% black turnout vs others expecting 10%.
Sounds about right. So the advantage goes to the Democrats.”
This was a generic example. Not a comparison of actual pollster choices.
But if you’re curious:
From ChatGPT:
Blacks are 13.5% of US population (incl children)
63% of the adult black population is registered to vote.
2020 62% of eligible black voters turned out.
So with 13.6% of the population and 65% turning out, that’s 8.84% of the entire US population. Using a 12% of total population as black votes (to which the 75/25 Harris/Trump ratio would apply) is somewhat absurd.
Btw Obama only got 67% black turnout. (of registered)
CBSNews explicitly says they oversampled blacks — and only managed a 2-3% Harris increase. It’s just not that many votes in the reservoir