Harris may need less of popular vote to win electoral college

The Washington Post ^ | Lenny Bronner | Lenny Bronner

[Salman]

...

Because of this recent history, we’ve come to assume that Republicans have a baked-in electoral college advantage. We think Democrats need to win the popular vote with some buffer, maybe two or three percentage points, to win the presidential election.

But in 2024, things may be changing. That’s because Democrats are performing less well in populous, blue states while simultaneously not losing any ground in the close states that decide the election.

The presidential race has dramatically re-formed after Biden decided not to run again and Kamala Harris, his vice president, became the Democratic nominee and will face Donald Trump in November.

According to The Post’s polling average, the national popular vote between Trump and Harris is currently tied. At the same time, if the election were held today and the polls (and our average) are right, Michigan would be 2024’s tipping-point state (but that might change as we get closer to November and get more polls).

...

[Salman]

Instead of an opening paragraph teaser, I scrolled down and excerpted what I consider the main point.

Are they telegraphing their punches?

[napscoordinator]

Biggest mistake was that debate so early.

[xp38]

The headline could also apply to Trump but the bias is built in as usual.

[aynrandfreak]

Dems decided they don’t want to have to fill out so many ballots to declare Victory.

[antidemoncrat]

“That’s because Democrats are performing less well in populous, blue states while simultaneously not losing any ground in the close states that decide the election.”

Actually I believe hey are doing well in blue states else why would most of them have been under Democratic control for years. As for the swing states wit a lot of Electoral College votes if you look at the fraud that allowed the Democrats to win them in 2020 why would you believe they don’t have plans to do the same thing in 2024?

[Candor7]

Oh No’s....

All yew Republicans and Trump supporters, just give up because Kamala is winning so large you might as well stay home !( sarc.)

BUahahahahahahahaha!

Kamala Harris and her campaign are a shit box for America.

Everybody knows it.

[Momaw Nadon]

Biggest mistake was that debate so early.

Yeah, damn clever them bastards.

But that is in the past. The main thing now is to re-elect President Trump and to elect a Republican Congress.

[adorno]

I have a suggestion for presidential elections.

The election campaigns should be concentrated on the...

“Deciding States For Elections”, also called the battle-ground states.

Forget California and NY an Illinois and Texas and Florida and the few others which won’t be up for grabs.

That way, campaign funds can be concentrated on the battle-grounds states, since that’s where most campaigning occurs anyway.

[frnewsjunkie]

Is there actual consideration to put this dingbat in control of the US? (Excuse the word,, it fit)
Have that many lost their minds?? Where are we?

[Candor7]

THey are complete unmitigated idiots at the Washington Post.

TDS is very real my FRiend.

[dpetty121263]

Come 2025 most of the Blue States passed laws that kick in that whoever wins the Popular vote in those States take all the Electoral votes, winner take all.

[nwrep]

Not in those states but nationwide.

[DoodleBob]

As I wrote elsewhere, the proper discussion is around how to flip 38+ electoral votes, and retain the States won in 2020.

We NEED Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), Arizona (10) or some combo therein.

Minnesota (10) is gone with Gov Stolen Valor now the Veep candidate.

And this is against the backdrop of mail-in voting, which isn't going away.

Stop with the pipe dreams in NJ, CT, and NY. Those gutters have a machine that’s not worth an ounce of energy.

Finally, to assess how close this can get, you have to scrutinize the winning vote margin in those close states that tip the balance to the winner, ie the Tipping Point states.

Since 2004 every election except for 2008 it came down to the handful of states that tip the Electoral College scale to the winner:

- In Trump’s win in 2016, his cumulative winning margin in the tipping point states of Wi, Mi, and PA was 77,444 votes.

-In Biden’s case, his tipping point margin was about 40k votes.

-Obama in 2012, it was about 500k votes.

-Bush in 2004, about 16k votes.

All this campaigning and rallies and debates blah blah blah…it all comes down, in general, to beating the other guy (or gal) by less than 100,000 votes.

….and it’s actually thinner than that, because all the losing candidate needed was to flip at least half of those votes.

[dpetty121263]

Trying to do away with the electoral college is what this is about.

[chopperk]

Vote in Crazy Kam and Tampon Tim and within a year we will see 1929 seem like a picnic. Lack of food will be the biggest issue. Remember, hunger is a primary motive. America is no longer rural.

[going hot]

The central hives all depend on the rural America for their every sustenance.

They will be hardest hit, for their folly.

[FiddlePig]

The entire Democrat election strategy is HATE TRUMP. If that doesn’t help, it’s hate him even harder! Nasty Nazi Nancy Pelosi (in her best Vito Corleone bloody horse head in the bed voice) has proclaimed Trump “Cannot be allowed near the Whitehouse.”

One wonders... what does she know about the “hit” order on Trump? Just wonderin’???

[dforest]

Democrats cheat in every state. They just cheat more in swing states.

Keep in mind many “blue” states are blue because of huge cities. Much of the time the rural areas who are more conservative have no voice and just enough cheating by democrats keep it that way.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

She’s going to go after the sympathy vote by being in a wheelchair due to elective surgery. She’s going to have her knees surgically attached behind her ears.

[Macoozie]

It’s really just about 15 Counties in 4 or 5 States. Those Swing Counties in the Swing States.
The rest are nearly locked through self- segregation and/or statewide political machines.

National Divorce is the answer.
They hate us. We hate them.
It’s no longer Happy Warrior time. That ship has sailed. It’s political war, or civil war.