Posted on 07/26/2024 8:00:09 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 6 points in New Hampshire ahead of their expected November match-up, two separate surveys found.
According to a poll released Thursday by the University of New Hampshire’s Survey Center, Harris, who announced her candidacy just this week after President Biden bowed out of the race Sunday, is leading Trump in the Granite State 49 percent to 43 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. earned 4 percent support, and 3 percent of respondents said they aren’t sure. In a two-way contest between Harris and Trump, her lead increases slightly; 53 percent said they would support the vice president, and 46 percent said they back the former commander in chief.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
I think NH has become very liberal? Scary when they turn the whole country into idiots like this.
We should expect Harris to be up 5-10 points nationally soon.
Total BS or the people in NH are a lot more stupid than I thought.
Trump was up +2 over Biden.
Tagline bump.
I looked at some chicken bones and they said Trump was up by 5 in NH.
Yea, OHHHH KAY!!!!..... (eye roll)
OK its over camel wins go back to sleep now
They had a hard time selling the steal with a dementia patient on the ticket. Now, they can give positive polls and that will make the steal seem legit.
Probably not BS but an 8 point swing is dubious. I have never seen this level of media bias like we’ve seen in the last week. It really is obscene
Trump got no bump. Why would she? This is her bump. Maybe before voting starts someone in the media will ask her a question beyond her plan to save democracy.
BS "Poll"
One thousand, nine hundred and seventy-three (1,973) Granite State Panel members completed the survey online.The response rate for panel respondents to this July 2024 Granite State Poll is 42%.
In addition, 1,043 New Hampshire residents completed the survey after receiving an invitation via text message to complete the survey online.
Overall, 3,016 individuals completed the survey between July 23 and July 25, 2024.
The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-1.8 percent.
Included in the sample were 2,875 likely general election voters (margin of sampling error +/-1.8 percent).
In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potentialsources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response.
The media got the number who wanted Biden out in the Rat party from 30% to 65% inside of 3 weeks. The fact that Trump has gotten as far as he has speaks to his true popularity. Biden couldn’t take 3 weeks of scrutiny and media bias. They are showing you who is in control and it’s not right wing media. There is nothing that will really force them to ask her any questions during the entire election. Trump needs to knock her out like he did Biden. If he doesn’t own the debates in an undeniable manner it’ll be tough to get the media to treat her like a candidate for President. The last election were both candidates were treated like candidates (not to say there was no bias) was probably 2004.
and we all know just who the pollsters called to get a Harris win. St. Anselm is probably surpised the difference wasn’t greater.
So this is basically an online poll? Sounds silly. Need more details of how the group was selected I guess. Also, do they have a track record?
SUUUUuuuurrrre she does
NH registration over the past 6 months:
Dem 258K down 3K
GOP 301K up 30K ———— Open primary, Nikki Haley
“Undeclared” 331K down 11K
Maybe best numbers are from Dec to exclude the Haley event:
Dem 262K
GOP 268K
Undeclared 343K
Their write up says they weighted data by 2020 turnout of parties. Meaning, they made phone calls randomly and when they got the turnout model of responses for each party, then they can stop. So whatever 2020’s turnout party mix was, that’s what they used in this poll.
This is fine. This is legitmate. Provided. They hold that model constant. This number of Harris / Trump is meaningless because no one knows the correct turnout model. But it IS useful when it is compared to another of their own surveys, using the same turnout model. That would be a proper measure of change. Not accuracy. Change.
There is a coordinated effort to make Harris seem electable. It will get worse before it gets better. We have 2 sides to polling at the moment. We can believe Rasmussen and Democracy Institute that has Trump up 7-8 points. If that’s true, Trump wins easily and probably states like NH. If we go to the polls that have Trump up 2-3, he wins the election but probably narrowly loses states like NH.
One thing is for sure, there is not an 8 point swing to Harris. Also, St Anselm was one of the worst pollsters in 2022 with an average error greater than 6 on their polls.
The people of NH are not that stupid. The infiltrators from massholeatwoshts are.
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