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Nate Silver — Biden has 27 percent chance of winning.
X.com ^ | 12:48 PM · Jul 12, 2024 | Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Posted on 07/12/2024 11:45:29 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum

Today's forecast update is out.

More of the same -- though, if you squint, Biden is at his lowest number yet, at a 27% chance of winning the Electoral College vs. 35% pre-debate.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model


(Excerpt) Read more at x.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Government; Politics/Elections
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1 posted on 07/12/2024 11:45:29 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

27% and that’s on a good day. Unless Biden has discovered the Fountain of Youth and is going to recover, it will only get worse. 116 days to go, maybe he’ll be down to DC and California by election day; Trump sweeps the rest.


2 posted on 07/12/2024 11:50:36 AM PDT by Reno89519 (I'll go out on a limb: Trump & Gabbard 2024 or Trump & Sanders 2024)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

The statistical asterisk is what really counts in an election, voter’s votes, or counted ballots


3 posted on 07/12/2024 11:51:10 AM PDT by z3n (Kakistocracy)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

More than 50% if you stop and realize that Zuckerberg’s millions will put heavy finger on scale like the last election


4 posted on 07/12/2024 11:52:02 AM PDT by Mount Athos
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

as long as Biden trails in both Georgia and Pennsylvania his chances are exactly 0%


5 posted on 07/12/2024 11:54:35 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Libs take Nate Silver seriously. This is liable to send many Dems into another frenzy calling for Biden to withdraw.


6 posted on 07/12/2024 11:56:22 AM PDT by Roadrunner383
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Well that would prove one thing..... 27% of the voters are brainwashed ignorant! .....imho


7 posted on 07/12/2024 12:00:47 PM PDT by high info voter (Delivery )
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To: Roadrunner383

“Libs take Nate Silver seriously. This is liable to send many Dems into another frenzy calling for Biden to withdraw.”

I think you are correct. What I find interesting is that the MSM does not know what to do. They are going back and forth on backing Biden or supporting him to withdraw.


8 posted on 07/12/2024 12:03:44 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: Reno89519

What if you were a skydiver with a 27% chance your parachute would not open. You’d be scared!

We should be afraid - very afraid.


9 posted on 07/12/2024 12:11:31 PM PDT by oldplayer
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

What are the chances of the election being fair and honest?


10 posted on 07/12/2024 12:13:12 PM PDT by Spok
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To: Spok
What are the chances of the election being fair and honest?

About 1 in 10,000.

11 posted on 07/12/2024 12:17:59 PM PDT by gitmo
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To: Parley Baer

It has always been a myth that evil groups agree on everything.

This is a case where they are truly fighting among themselves.

Hopefully this circular firing squad will go on and on and on....


12 posted on 07/12/2024 12:19:01 PM PDT by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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To: Parley Baer

“What I find interesting is that the MSM does not know what to do. They are going back and forth on backing Biden or supporting him to withdraw.”

Very unusual to see libs throwing pies at each other.


13 posted on 07/12/2024 12:23:51 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

holy krap, batman!


14 posted on 07/12/2024 12:25:55 PM PDT by catnipman ((A Vote For The Lesser Of Two Evils Still Counts As A Vote For Evil))
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To: Parley Baer

“They are going back and forth on backing Biden or supporting him to withdraw.”

their problem is that they don’t know WHICH Democrat Party to take their marching orders from ... should they take their orders from the pro-Biden Democrat party or the anti-Biden Democrat Party? ... it’s all just SO confusing ... life used to be SO much simpler when there was only one fascist party to give orders to the media, instead of two fascist parties ...


15 posted on 07/12/2024 12:29:38 PM PDT by catnipman ((A Vote For The Lesser Of Two Evils Still Counts As A Vote For Evil))
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To: Reno89519

I think Nate means he has a 27% chance to successfully steal the election.


16 posted on 07/12/2024 12:31:46 PM PDT by Truthsearcher
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

I think people are ignoring all the Democrats options.


17 posted on 07/12/2024 12:32:05 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: Roadrunner383

He never said a replacement would have a better chance.


18 posted on 07/12/2024 12:32:57 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: oldplayer

But even if Biden loses, it won’t make much of a dent in Democrats getting everything they want. The game is rigged in their favor.


19 posted on 07/12/2024 12:33:48 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Yet on the same day polling models show Biden winning 51 out of 100 times and 49 out of 100 times for Trump..so seriously that douche bag is all over the place with his “Predictions”


20 posted on 07/12/2024 12:36:19 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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