Posted on 07/01/2024 7:53:05 PM PDT by janetjanet998
Hurricane #Beryl Advisory 14: Beryl Becomes a Potentially Catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane In the Eastern Caribbean. Expected to Bring Life-Threatening Winds and Storm Surge To Jamaica Later This Week
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024
Data from a NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft tonight has been quite
helpful in assessing Beryl’s structure and intensity. Within the
past hour, the aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of
157 kt in the northeastern quadrant. A typical 90 percent reduction
translates to a maximum sustained wind of 140 kt, which makes Beryl
a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. This is the
earliest Category 5 hurricane observed in the Atlantic basin on
record, and only the second Category 5 hurricane to occur in July
after Hurricane Emily in 2005.
Beryl continues to move quickly to the west-northwest, even a bit
faster than earlier, estimated from plane fixes to be 290/19 kt. A
well-established subtropical ridge oriented ESE-to-WNW of Beryl is
expected to continue to steer the small but potent hurricane quickly
west-northwestward into the central Caribbean over the next several
days. After 48 hours, the strongest ridging becomes positioned more
NW of Beryl, and the storm could turn a bit more westward and
gradually slow down when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean. The
guidance this cycle has nudged a bit further north this cycle, and
thus the NHC forecast track has also been shifted in that direction,
roughly between the reliable HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. After 72
hours, model track spread increases quite markedly, especially after
Beryl emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, and forecast confidence in
the track at the end of the forecast is rather low.
While I cannot rule out a bit more intensification in the
short-term, dropsonde pressure observations between fixes in Beryl’s
eye have remained steady at 938 mb. It is also possible another
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) could begin like we saw last night,
with UW-CIMSS MPERC model giving another ERC a 50-75 percent
probability based on the last few microwave passes. With that said,
after the next 24 hours, both the GFS and ECMWF remain insistent
that significant mid-level westerly shear (above 30 kt) will begin
to undercut Beryl’s outflow layer. The HAFS-A/B regional-hurricane
models, which did a good job predicting Beryl’s peak intensity
today, are also insistent this shear will start to disrupt the
hurricane after the next 24 hours. There is evidence of this less
favorable upper-level pattern on GOES-16 water vapor imagery upwind
of Beryl’s track, and thus a faster rate of weakening is forecasted
from 36-72 hours. There remains much uncertainty of what Beryl’s
structure or intensity will be as it approaches or crosses the
Yucatan, but the current GFS and ECMWF upper-level pattern in the
Gulf of Mexico does not look especially favorable for
restrengthening at the end of the forecast period.
Carriacou
News media: “It’s a category 6 hurricane!!!1!”
here we go again..freak out for no reason. I dont care if the ocean is 212 degrees and boiling, if the outflow (exhaust) isn’t just right and perfect, meaning zero “shear”, NOTHING HAPPENS. If it was just SST’s, then every storm that formed would be a Cat 5. The “climate change” pyschos are going berserk over this.
Every once in a while I have dreams of owning a 40+ length sailboat an island hopping the Caribbean. Then I get reminded of stories like this why not to.
OK, sure, Mexico gonna get hit, we don’t care, signed FL
🤣
Two of the scores of predicted paths go over or very close to New Orleans.
Just sayin’...
Are we now naming hurricanes after anti-Trump judges now? “Beryl”? I’ve never met a Beryl my entire life. Beryl Howell.
Is the next one “Hurricane Merchan”? “Hurricane Chutkin”?
I hope it kills 81 million Biden voters.
And I'll betcha' many of the people there haven't learned a damn thing from Katrina.
And all the invaders standing at the southern water’s edge of the Rio Grande river in Mehico. Hope they all prick themselves on the razor wire and get infected
And all the invaders standing at the southern water’s edge of the Rio Grande river in Mehico. Hope they all prick themselves on the razor wire and get infected
Cat 5 storm in the open ocean. Big deal.
It’ll be days and much weaker when it finally hits land again in Jamaica.
They get stronger in open ocean, not weaker.
“I hope it kills 81 million Biden voters.”
Too late.... they’re already dead.
We have to deal with these meteorological expert scares every season here in Florida. In 40 years I think we have lost two shingles off our roof. A few tree branches. No trees down. No flooding. The only damage we have incurred is that which is deliberately and with malice inflicted upon us by an adjacent property owner, who is a vindictive, sociopathic foreign national. It would cost us a lot of money to haul him into court before a judge who’ll get him to stop his behavior so we just decided we will have to live with his trespassing until he dies.
Too late.... they’re already dead.
From the neck up.
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