Posted on 06/30/2024 11:21:19 AM PDT by delta7
Introduction
The following is an overview of the recent events and present state of the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War. We observe movement towards the end of the conflict in its present configuration and in two new directions simultaneously — a race to the final resolution of the NATO-Russia question. One direction consists of movement towards peace negotiations. The other is toward escalation into a open, direct NATO-Russia war likely to expand beyond the borders of Ukraine and far western regions of Russia. The race to resolution is on and it remains anyone's guess whether peace or greater war will win the day.
Russia Proposes Diplomacy...Again
On June 14 Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a roadmap for ending the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War during a speech at Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He called the "Ukrainian crisis" "a tragedy for us all" and the result not of a Russo-Ukrainian conflict per se but "of the aggressive, cavalier, and absolutely adventurous policy that the West has pursued and is pursuing." He proposed what he called "a real peace proposal" for establishing a permanent end to the Ukrainian conflict and war rather than a ceasefire. Putin based his proposal on principles he has reiterated numerous times, most of which were agreed upon by Kiev and Moscow in Istanbul in March-April 2022; a process scuttled by Washington, London, and Brussels. In particular, he has now offered "simple" conditions for the "beginning of discussions." They include: the full withdrawal of all Ukrainian troops from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhia oblasts as they existed as of 1991 — that is, Russia would receive all the oblasts' territories not just those now controlled by Russian troops. Immediately upon agreeing to this condition and a second requiring Kiev's rejection of any NATO membership (Ukraine's "neutral, non-bloc, non-nuclear status"), from the Russian side "immediately, literally the same minute there will follow an order to cease fire and begin negotiations" and Moscow "will guarantee the unhindered and safe withdrawal" of Ukrainian units. However, he expressed "huge doubts" that the West would allow Kiev to agree to this. If his offer is rejected, Putin emphasized that all future blood-letting in Ukraine would be the West's and Kiev's "political and moral responsibility" and that Kiev's negotiating position would only deteriorate as its troops' position at the front.
To be sure, Putin's offer was not made under the illusion that it would be taken up within the next few months and was certainly another effort to lay blame for the conflict at Washington's, Brussels and, less so perhaps, Kiev's doors. Nevertheless, Putin's public offering before Russia's Foreign Ministry personnel is a most authoritative and official statement of a specific proposal from Russia; one that included paths to both a ceasefire and permanent peace, if Washington and/or Kiev choose to take them as Ukraine continues to crumble at the front, in the political sphere, and economically throughout this year. The pressure from the Western and Ukrainian publics to negotiate with Moscow will continue to mount through the U.S. presidential elections, as Ukraine deteriorates and the risk of direct, open, full-scale NATO-Russia war grows. It is possible that if US intelligence concludes and reports to the White House that the Ukrainian front and/or army and/or regime will collapse before the November elections, then the Biden administration may be moved to open talks or force the Ukrainians to do so.
Putin's territorial demands are not likely to be static, as the territorial configuration changes rapidly on the ground. Russia seizes more territories beyond the four oblasts and Crimea, and the negotiating algorithm changes. Thus, the seizure of areas in Sumy and Kharkiv may not just be an attempt to begin establishing a broad 'buffer zone' to move more Ukrainian artillery and drones out of range. The Sumy, Kharkiv, and areas near, say, areas of Nikolaev and Odessa in the south can serve as trading cards to entice acquiescence to talks, as long as Russia makes no claims on those territories. In other words, the Ukrainians could have inferred and were perhaps supposed to infer that they could demand a request for the immediate withdrawal of Russian forces from Sumy and Kharkiv simultaneously with Kiev's withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the four Novorossiyan regions. The incursions into Sumy and Kharkiv in May might reflect preparation then already for Putin's official reiteration of the peace proposal in June. Putin's call for Ukrainian withdrawal from the four noted 'Novorossiya' regions implies the 'return' of any and all other areas occupied by Russian troops. Continued refusal to talk with Moscow and any further Russian gains give Putin flexibility in enticing or threatening Washington, Brussels, and/or Kiev to the negotiating table. Refuse talks and lose non-Novorossiyan lands; accept talks and Kiev gets them back.
Also, both subjectively (with Putin's intent) and objectively (without Putin's intent) the proposal undermined Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy's 'disnamed' 'peace summit' in Switzerland which was nothing other than an exercise in rallying support among supporters for the beleaguered Maidan regime. Tied to this issue is the Russian president's assertions in the speech both Zelenskiy and the Maidan regime are illegitimate. Putin got mired down in some self-contradictions here. His assertion that the Maidan regime is illegitimate, since it came to power by an illegal "armed putch" - an absolutely correct one - contradicts his other claim that only Ukraine's parliament or Supreme Rada is now a legitimate authority and representative of the Ukrainian people. According to Putin, Zelenskiy is not Ukraine's legitimate authority according to the Ukrainian constitution and thus the Rada is, because Zelenskiy's first five-year term expired without his being re-elected, but this is a plausible but debatable conclusion regarding a now extremely complicated legal issue. The key point here is that if the Maidan regime that arrived in power in February 2014 by way of an illegal coup is illegitimate, then the organs of power elected under it are equally as illegitimate, putting aside the issue of creeping legitimization by time (still too early) and international recognition. Indeed, it was a decision of the Rada on 21 February 2014 ostensibly impeaching the already overthrown (for all intents and purposes) President Viktor Yanukovych, without a quorum moreover, that gave a quasi-legal veneer of legitimacy to the Maidan coup, as Putin himself notes in his June speech.
However, it should be noted that Putin's raising of this issue is probably less driven by legalities than politics. Putin may be trying to drive a wedge between parliament and the Office of the President in order to strengthen any coup d'etat being planned in the wings by those such as former president Petro Poroshenko and former Chief of the General Staff Valeriy Zaluzhniy. In Putin's interpretation of Ukraine's "unique juridicial situation" as well as that of some Ukrainians, Poroshenko's or Zaluzhniy's legitimacy to rule is no less and indeed greater than that of Zelenskiy's own.
It appears that Zelenskiy's increasingly weak position at home, which I have discussed numerous times elsewhere, declining support for Ukraine abroad and most importantly in the U.S., Ukrainian forces' dire situation all along the front and in the rear (lack of men and weapons to fight), the threat of a Russian summer offensive (see below), and Putin's June proposals had their effect. As Zelenskiy arrived in Brussels on the eve of the NATO summit in Washington DC, a series of events confirmed the likelihood that Putin's speech reflected developments in secret US-Russian talks, and Zelenskiy suddenly moved to suggest Kiev prepare. In the days prior, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin telephoned Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and supposedly discussed measures to prevent a US-Russian clash that could lead to war likely motivated by the ATACMs attack on Crimea that killed some ten beach-goers, including children, and wounded some 40. It seems almost certain that there was some discussion of negotiations on war and peace. This was followed by rumors that a Russian plane had departed to Washington DC on June 25th. Now, just days later, Zelenskiy said in Brussels that Kiev "must put a settlement plan on the table within a few months." This followed a statement weeks earlier by Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba and Office of the President Andriy Yermak that the next Ukrainian peace summit following the failure of early June's session should lead to a peace agreement and include Russia directly or indirectly for the first time and lead to a peace agreement. This confirms my sense that the Ukrainian war will end one way or the other this year unless NATO intervenes directly with troops on the ground.
Moscow's Military Plans: Reject Talks and War You Shall Have
Moscow's military plans for the remainder of the year can be summed up as continuity in Ukraine and preparations for war beyond Ukraine against the West. Thus, in Ukraine Russia will continue its more offensive strategy of 'attrit and advance' upgraded from, an intensification of what Alexander Mercouris calls 'aggressive attrition'. Under attrit and advance, Russian forces still emphasize destruction of Ukraine's armed forces over the taking and holding of new territory. The attrition of massive, combined air, artillery, missile, and drone war supersedes the advances on the ground by armor and infantry in this strategy. Thus, territorial advance is slow, but personnel losses are fewer.….more….
Trump clearly wants a peaceful solution. NATO clearly wants to keep crowding Russia until a war breaks out. Look for NATO precipitating something that causes the war. They don’t have much time and Biden is toast. Now is the time - before November. The big losers as usual will be the US taxpayer.
Yup, it makes as much sense as Russia returning behind the international borders of 2012…. None.
Presidental elections must precede any peace deal. Ukrainians get to vote on who they want leading the negotiations.
————-
Good point, as Zelensky is no longer the legitimate President, the Ukrainian people have a problem. I look to St Z disappearing, in one way or another.
Vlad ( and a few other countries) has already stated any “ agreement “ must be signed by a legitimate, elected leader. I think we can safely assume St Z’s days are over.
If I was Xi, I would be planning on expanding China’s borders to the west.
——————-
There is much talk about China rebuilding what is left of Ukraine post war. A lovely idea.
“As soon as Russia returns behind its international borders of 2012 all will be well and peace will rein.”
They’re all blinded by their nationalist pride.
At least 70% of NATO military hardware is the United States. When Billy Jeff Clinton was bombing Serbia, he wouldn’t let the NATO (US) jets get close to the ground. That said, one US pilot was shot down, but thanks to his training, he survived until US forces found him. It is a great story and book: Return With Honor by Scott O’Grady. One of my favorite parts of the book is when he describes the 45 minutes he took to just sit up. He was hiding for days, and any sudden movement might be detected. He was trained in evasion. By slowly, slowly, inch by inch, moving just a little, he would eventually rise up to be able to see what, who was around. Amazing. Wonderful.
You’re as delusional as Putin is
Russia is getting weaker by the day with this War
China is just laughing and rubbing their hands with glee at Russia’s ongoing failures, it won’t be long before they can easily take over Siberia!
LOL
Russia is getting weaker by the day with this War
————
Maybe, maybe not. What is clear, Ukraine physically lies in ruins, no electricity, billions in unpayable debt, manpower depleted, 16-20 million Ukrainians that fled will not be returning.
Fact: Ukraine is on Western life support, a total, 100 percent, begging, corrupted, welfare nation….all the while Vlad continues to generate revenue ( record $70 billion last month)….
You have been fooled by senile Joe and his war:
“ it is easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled”.
Do realize St Z’s signature will not be on their surrender document, Vlad’s signature will….carry on.
The war will last until it is no longer useful.
1. When Right wing people are elected in Europe. (it is coming)—Le Pen in France and Nigel Frage in UK.
2.When Joe is ousted by Hillary/Pelosi and a new leader found.
3. Stock market crashed like 2008. Jobs lost.
4. A military coup by the Joint Chiefs takes over with president Millie.
5. China funds a Peace Movement in the USA.
6. Trump wins big.
The war is in, I believe, its last phases. The end game that wants to grab land, steal weapons, and set up the rebuilding.
Putin’s new Russia will be rebuilt as a resort. No guerilla war, no further aggression—here. Latvia may well be targeted in time. Putin/Trump summit will set the stage for a new peace. Next country to expand will be China as it quickly takes Taiwan—in a coup from within.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.