Biden Takes a National Polling Lead for the First Time in 2024...or Does He?

Townhall ^ | 06/21/2024 | Guy Benson

[SeekAndFind]

Perhaps you've heard the news that for the first time in calendar year 2024, President Joe Biden has taken the lead in FiveThirtyEight's national polling average.  It's true -- thanks especially to a Fox News survey showing the current president pulling ahead of the former president by two percentage points, Biden has edged into an extremely slight lead over Trump, in the aggregate.  Let's take a look at that Fox poll first, then peek at the new polling average, as of late Thursday.  Stats guru Nate Silver is calling out Democratic partisans for excitedly touting the Fox numbers, as many of them dismissed the exact same outfit's Trump-favorable results in key swing states just two weeks ago.  But now they're abandoning their skepticism because they like what this top line outcome shows:

🇺🇲 2024 GE: @foxnewspoll

🟦 Biden: 50% [+2]
🟥 Trump: 48% [-1]
---
🟦 Biden: 43% [+3]
🟥 Trump: 42% [-1]
🟨 RFK Jr: 10% [-1]
🟨 West: 2% [=]
🟩 Stein: 2% [=]

[+/- change vs May]

538: #15 (2.8/3.0) | 6/14-17 | 1,095 RVhttps://t.co/BxDnVkgoBB pic.twitter.com/iQkNXW6J41— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 19, 2024

And here's that aforementioned average, visualized:

Biden is "ahead" in our national polling average for the first time all year

https://t.co/cdR35yt9ac pic.twitter.com/aPKGKENAno— G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) June 20, 2024

Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics' average (again as of late last night) has Trump still ahead by a hair, and with a marginally larger national advantage within an expanded, five-candidate field.  Whether you want to believe one average over the other, what's clear is that this is an extremely close race.  If the nationwide 'popular vote' is similarly very close in November, that would likely be good news for Trump, who lost on that metric by 4.5 points in 2020, but came within approximately 44,000 votes (spread across three critical states) of being re-elected.  He lost the 'popular vote' to Hillary Clinton by about two points in 2016 and famously won the presidency.  Looking at the electoral college race -- i.e., the one that really counts -- Trump remains in the lead.  In fact, new swing state polling out this week gave Trump a lead in every battleground surveyed, with Minnesota now tied:

🇺🇲 2024 GE: Emerson/The Hill

GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 45% (+8)
🟦 Biden: 37%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟨 West: 1%
—
MINNESOTA
🟥 Trump: 42% (+1)
🟦 Biden: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟨 West: 1%
—
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 44% (+2)
🟦 Biden: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟨 West: 1%… https://t.co/AkQGtSPeIY pic.twitter.com/URwZ07CBpc— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 20, 2024

With expanded fields, Trump is ahead by four in Arizona, eight in Georgia, two in Michigan, three in Nevada, three in Pennsylvania, and two in Wisconsin.  He's even up by a nose (one point) In Minnesota.  For what it's worth, Trump's internal polling also shows him up a bit in that state, while a different public survey gives Biden a modest lead there.  Other state-level polls offer an interesting patchwork.  As we mentioned a few days ago, Trump's eye-popping 18-point lead in Iowa, according to one of the best polls out there, points to his unprecedented strength in that state.  In the red state of Texas, Trump looks to be in pretty comfortable shape, with Ted Cruz also looking fairly strong (+11) for re-election:

📊 TEXAS GE: UT/@TxPolProject

🟥 Trump: 46%
🟦 Biden: 39%
🟪 Other: 9%
---
🟥 Trump: 43%
🟦 Biden: 34%
🟨 RFK Jr: 8%
🟩 Stein: 2%
🟨 West: 2%
🟪 Oliver: 0%
—
Senate
🟥 Cruz: 45%
🟦 Allred: 34%
🟪 Other: 6%
⬜ Undecided: 14%
—
Generic Ballot
🟥 GOP: 45%
🟦 DEM: 40%
—… pic.twitter.com/9t1amfSaf1— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 20, 2024

Cruz's opponent, incidentally, just got hit across the head with his own words:

NEW on CNN: Cruz-challenger Colin Allred promises to “fix the border,” saying he “stood up to Joe Biden” on it in a new ad.

But two years ago, amid a record surge of migrants, he called it a “right-wing echo chamber” and not “top of mind” issue. https://t.co/3D2TgbodzX— Andy Kaczynski (@KFILE) June 20, 2024

Lots of Democrats are going to be running as "independent"-minded bipartisan figures who've "stood up" to Biden on key issues.  Look at their actual voting records (Jacky Rosen in Nevada, Jon Tester in Montana, etc), and you'll see lockstep partisans.  Republicans need to aggressively prosecute that case.  Then there's this fascinating poll out of deep blue New York, in case you missed it:

📊 NEW YORK GE: @SienaResearch

🟦 Biden: 47% (+8)
🟥 Trump: 39%
🟪 Other: 5%

Independents: Trump 45-28%
---
Trends
• June 2023: Biden +22
• Feb. 2024: Biden +11
• June 2024: Biden +8
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 50% (+15)
🟥 GOP: 35%

Independents: GOP 38-31%
—
Fav/unfav… pic.twitter.com/dV2IuIC2TA— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 20, 2024

I'm skeptical, of course, but (1) Siena is well-regarded, and (2) theirs is not the only recent data set showing New York within single digits. Notable. And here's why it's even remotely close at this point:

The Siena survey found that Trump is supported by 29% of black New Yorkers and 26% of Latino residents ahead of his Nov. 5 rematch against 81-year-old Biden. In 2020, Trump — who at the time also claimed he was on the cusp of winning New York — was supported by just 6% of black New Yorkers and 22% of Hispanics, according to exit polling...Biden narrowly leads Trump among Jewish voters with 52% support, while the former president has 46% backing in the demographic — following months of vacillation by Biden over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.

I'll leave you with fresh polling commissioned by AARP, surveying dozens of the most competitive House races in the nation.  The results are as tight as can be the Congressional ballot (tied), with Trump up two points across these districts (and five points in the wider field):

📊 AARP Poll of 44 most competitive Congressional Districts by Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D)

🟦 Democrats: 45%
🟥 Republicans: 45%
⬜ Undecided: 10%
—
President
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Biden: 45%
---
🟥 Trump: 42%
🟦 Biden: 37%
🟨 RFK Jr: 11%
🟩 Stein: 3%
🟪 Oliver: 2%
—
Job… pic.twitter.com/9LTC0peiXy— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 20, 2024

Overall, next week's debate looms large.

[SeekAndFind]

[MinorityRepublican]

If it’s a tie in the popular vote, it’ll be a blow out in the electoral college (in theory).

[fwdude]

I think the fake “conviction” of Trump would have had an immediate, but not lasting, effect on the polling. The effect was a small bump, which will eventually reverse to the pre-”conviction” numbers, if not much better.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: If it’s a tie in the popular vote, it’ll be a blow out in the electoral college (in theory).

For which party?

[Psychedelic-Surrealist Artist]

Guy Benson is one of these people who totally ignore the REAL issue, which is ELECTION FRAUD.

[stanne]

No, Mr. Benson. This is bogus.

[sopo]

Sundance pointed out the fundamental problem with this Fox poll. The #1 issue was “threats to democracy. “ By definition, that is a Dem heavy sampling, almost impossible to gather that much flawed data without trying very hard, I would guess.

[adorno]

The definition of a good poll is one that shows your candidate ahead for the moment. The second that that same poll shows you losing, that the definition of a bad poll.

The only poll that counts is the one after the election, but even there, it’s about whether you actually won or won after the ‘lost’ or ‘late’ votes are counted. So, polls are suspect, and so are elections. Somebody has to figure out a way where the actual results show the actual preferences of the people; that might be impossible to do under the current political environments.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

I’d guess this poll was created by oversampling demoncrats in order to generate headlines like this one.

[ALASKA]

I have strongly believed in political polls since Hillary’s poll-predicted, glorious victory in 2016!

[VTenigma]

Faux is just setting up the “cover narrative” for the “big steal”.

[Thapsus_epiphany]

I suspect Paul Ryan at Fox has something to do with these new numbers. He and Mitt are still pissed about 2012. RINOs can’t get the ball over the finish line without help from the democrats.
Butt hurt RINOs love to spit in the MAGA soup whenever the opportunity arises, and manipulate polling numbers whenever they can.
I don’t have any expectation of truth from Fox.
Best bet is to find another source for conservative and MAGA news.
They’ll do anything they can to dishearten and discourage Trump supporters.
I have Ryan’s face on my dart board.

[God luvs America]

Play like we are behind

[bantam]

Set a clock by it. Right on cue, polls magically tighten!
Gotta tighten them polls up! Only a couple months until election day.

[Lake Living]

That was my thought as well especially after Steve Bannon’s torching of Paul Ryan, Fox and Rupert Murdoch.

[oldbill]

Nonsense.
This happens every election.

The early polls are somewhat accurate because they establish a baseline.
Then if the highly partisan pollsters note their candidate is not doing well, they slant the subsequent polls to put a positive spotlight for their candidate- “Biden making comeback!”; “Carter leaps ahead of Reagan by 5”; “Mondale leading Reagan”.

Then, in the last week, to maintain their credibility for future elections, they get closer to the real numbers, but still favoring their candidate: “Reagan moves into the margin of error”; “Bush and Kerry tied”.

Ever wonder why the candidates and have their own “inside polls”?
Because they don’t trust them and they know the game that’s being played.

[Organic Panic]

Prepare accordingly. Biden will be installed again. There is no way the swamp and democrat commies allow otherwise. Buy your guns and ammo now because once he is reinstalled the nation, as we knew it, is done. It will not recover.

[XRdsRev]

NJ-07 was a reliable Republican district and definitely Trump country BUT since COVID and George Floyd along with the opening of the new Technology campus in Readington, the area is being flooded with NYC liberals who want to live “in the country”. Hunterdon (Readington specifically) was listed a year ago as a top place to live and now it has become a race to ruin it. In years past there is no way this would have been a toss up district.

[frank ballenger]

Imagine the Replacement Candidate and the phony polling results then.

Or let’s not.

They can make the employment figures, the inflation rate and the approval ratings go wherever they want.

And phony polling has been true for generations.

Plus inaccuracies. Truman was losing to Dewey because of telephone polls at a time when millions of Americans did not yet have phones.

Maybe EV owners say Biden will win 50 states.