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Trump’s Tariff Trap. Replacing income taxes with tariffs doesn’t pencil out.
City Journal ^ | June 20, 2024 | Alexander William Salter

Posted on 06/20/2024 4:07:34 PM PDT by karpov

Donald Trump rocked Washington last week with his proposal to fund the federal government solely from tariffs. Until roughly a century ago, tariffs composed the vast majority of national revenue, but today income and business taxes make up the lion’s share. Can Uncle Sam go back?

Taxing imports to pay Washington’s bills has a certain political appeal. Domestic taxes, often progressive in nature, are unpopular. Better to tax foreigners if we can.

The problem with this thinking, however, is that non-Americans largely don’t pay for tariffs in the end; U.S. households and businesses do, in the form of higher prices and reduced trade. The former president is relying on one of the oldest fallacies of “folk economics.” Supply and demand, not statutes or executive orders, determine who really pays a tax.

Yet, there’s an even bigger flaw in Trump’s plan. Government spending as a share of GDP is approximately 22 percent. Import spending as a share of GDP is 14 percent. To fully cover federal outlays, we would need to find a way to generate tariff revenue in excess of 150 percent of what we spend on all imports. Even if we wanted to cover current receipts only—remember, we run perpetual deficits—we would still have to squeeze an additional 100 percent of revenue out of current imports. There’s no way to make the numbers work.

The figures look even starker in dollar terms. In fiscal year 2024, the national government has taken in $3.29 trillion. Tariffs account for 1.5 percent of that, at $49 billion, meaning that we would need to scale up customs duties by a factor of nearly 70.

The commentariat has already recognized several of these difficulties. Even so, they understate the problem.

(Excerpt) Read more at city-journal.org ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: tariffs; taxes
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To: karpov
City Journal Org was started by a Libertarian. While I see several outlets claiming that is what Donald Trump said. I suspect that he is being misquoted. I mean it wouldn't be the first time.

He might have said he would offset lower income taxes with tariffs.

But discussing and doing are wo different things at any rate.

I honestly believe that his main thrust will be eliminating regulations that open up job creation and bring back manufacturing to the U.S. which will in turn reduce imports, so tariffs only would not be sufficient.

21 posted on 06/20/2024 4:37:17 PM PDT by Robert DeLong
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To: Jim Robinson

Careful, JimRob-you’ll confuse the chattering class with simple, obvious facts-I like a person who does that...


22 posted on 06/20/2024 4:42:22 PM PDT by Texan5 ("You've got to saddle up your boys, you've got to draw a hard line"...)
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To: karpov

Pretty funny, these guys all make the same wrong assumptions. Tariffs last Trump term didn’t raise prices. Just as wrong is thinking that decreases in Gv’t spending are not planned.
The economy needs an overhaul not a bandaid.


23 posted on 06/20/2024 4:46:21 PM PDT by JayGalt (DEI = Didn’t Earn It)
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To: karpov

.


24 posted on 06/20/2024 4:52:00 PM PDT by sauropod ("This is a time when people reveal themselves for who they are." James O'Keefe Ne supra crepidam)
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To: Robert DeLong

In Economist Thomas Sowell’s newest book-he absolutely ridicules bidenomics and hammers home the reality of greater income through increased tariffs and decreased taxes-AFTER first cutting govt spending-he starts with the most useless and intrusive alphabet agencies-EPA, DOE, etc. The book is “Social Justice Fallacies”-a great read so far...


25 posted on 06/20/2024 4:52:55 PM PDT by Texan5 ("You've got to saddle up your boys, you've got to draw a hard line"...)
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To: karpov

Math is hard for many nowadays due to pubic skrools.


26 posted on 06/20/2024 4:53:56 PM PDT by LastDayz (A blunt and brazen Texan. I will not be assimilated.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Exactly, this works if you cut government to 1/2…… guess they don’t want to take that into consideration…..


27 posted on 06/20/2024 4:56:09 PM PDT by Lockbox (politicians, they all seemed like game show hosts to me.... Sting…)
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To: Texan5
Thomas Sowell is a a national treasure isn't he. 🙂👍

I wish he were younger so that Trump could select him as his running mate. A truly intelligent man on so many topics beyond just economics, and at 93 he's still as sharp as a tack.

28 posted on 06/20/2024 4:59:16 PM PDT by Robert DeLong
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To: karpov

Get rid of the income tax, use tariffs as much as possible, and print the rest. It’s kind of what’s happening right now anyways. /s


29 posted on 06/20/2024 5:04:27 PM PDT by The Iceman Cometh
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To: karpov
We can do this!

Yes, we can!

It takes a village!

We're in this together!

30 posted on 06/20/2024 5:16:23 PM PDT by frogjerk (More people have died trusting the government than not trusting the government.)
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To: Robert DeLong

I’d love to see Prof Sowell in some economic adviser capacity to a Trump admin, if he were willing-but I’m sure he is making a nice living writing books and op-eds for financial publications right now. One of the few really sensible people in California...

Ever noticed that those who are still sharp and functioning well in their older years are people who have never stopped working, questioning, doing research, etc? Thomas Sowell and Prof Dershowitz come to mind right away. Working, questioning, being curious and involved has advantages, it seems.

Contrast that with FJB, who has probably never questioned or researched anything himself-other than how to grab off as much cash with a con as possible. We know he never really worked as a lawyer-or as anything else, for that matter, having been in politics most of his adult life-no curiosity, no desire to learn and do research-add a catastrophic brain injury in the 1980’s to that, and now, a load of psychotropic drugs, amphetamines and other drugs to make him look alive and you have a really f’ed up dude who does not need to be in charge of the nuke football...


31 posted on 06/20/2024 5:18:19 PM PDT by Texan5 ("You've got to saddle up your boys, you've got to draw a hard line"...)
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To: Robert DeLong

I got interested in taking a couple of economics classes in college after reading some of Thomas Sowell’s writings on the subject. My degree is in social work, but I’m still as interested economics as I was then-it comes in handy sometimes...


32 posted on 06/20/2024 5:26:09 PM PDT by Texan5 ("You've got to saddle up your boys, you've got to draw a hard line"...)
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To: karpov; All
Thank you for referencing that article karpov. Note that the following critique is directed at the article an not at you.

"Trump’s Tariff Trap. Replacing income taxes with tariffs doesn’t pencil out."


FR: Never Accept the Premise of Your Opponent’s Argument

Consider that Thomas Jefferson had noted that the federal government was originally totally funded by tariffs that the rich paid on imported goods. (Constitutional Convention delegates that were wealthy, maybe their wealthy friends too, seem to have put their money where their mouths were.)

The rich alone use imported articles, and on these alone the whole taxes of the General Government are levied [emphasis added]. … Our revenues liberated by the discharge of the public debt, and its surplus applied to canals, roads, schools, etc., the farmer will see his government supported, his children educated, and the face of his country made a paradise by the contributions of the rich alone, without his being called on to spend a cent from his earnings.” —Thomas Jefferson to Thaddeus Kosciusko, 1811.

Militia readiness aside, one of the very few main peacetime expenses that the states expressly gave to the constitutionally limited power Congress was to run the US Mail Service.

In other words, most of today's federal domestic spending is based on stolen state powers and stolen state revenues uniquely associated with those powers as shown below.

Democratic and Republican patriots need to get hopeful Trump 47 and the new Constitution-respecting Congress that they support him with in November up to speed with unconstitutional federal taxing and spending, a consequence of generations of abuse of 16th Amendment powers (direct taxes) by corrupt Congress imo.

Once unconstitutional federal taxing and spending is stopped, hopefully “permanently” with a repeal of the 16th and 17th Amendments, then Trump might have a good opportunity to run the constitutionally limited power federal government with the tariffs on imports that Jefferson had mentioned.

33 posted on 06/20/2024 5:29:04 PM PDT by Amendment10
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To: karpov

How quaint, thinking about pencils for $34T +. In debt


34 posted on 06/20/2024 5:32:16 PM PDT by combat_boots
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To: JayGalt

“...The economy needs an overhaul not a bandaid....”

Indeed! And tariffs replacing income taxes is a good beginning coupled with a systematic reduction in the size of government. Trump as President shouldn’t sign any Congressional bill unless it includes the elimination of some program or current expenditure.


35 posted on 06/20/2024 5:32:18 PM PDT by elpadre ( )
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To: elpadre

Agreed.


36 posted on 06/20/2024 5:50:41 PM PDT by JayGalt (DEI = Didn’t Earn It)
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To: karpov

Well, replacing income tax for sales tax! Tariffs are kind of VAT, but applying to foreign made products only.
I like it!


37 posted on 06/20/2024 6:00:42 PM PDT by AZJeep
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To: xp38

exactly


38 posted on 06/20/2024 6:04:21 PM PDT by Gene Eric (Don't be a statist! )
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To: karpov

NeoCON free traitor globohomos say tariffs are bad because muh corporations can’t exploit cheap 3rd world labor - news at 11.


39 posted on 06/20/2024 6:32:20 PM PDT by imabadboy99
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To: karpov

This is all moot as congress will never go along with it.


40 posted on 06/20/2024 6:56:17 PM PDT by Revel
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