(ACE is Accumulated Cyclonic Energy)
Posted on 05/31/2024 1:05:18 PM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is here and forecasters and meteorologists agree that it could be an extremely active season with the potential for more tropical storms and hurricanes due to weather patterns and warmer ocean waters.
"Prepare, not panic" is the message the FOX 35 Storm Team wants you know.
What is a hurricane and how does one form? How many tropical storms or hurricanes are predicted this year? What factors are contributing to the increased prediction forecast? What changes have been made to the so-called forecast cone – and what do you need to know? What can you do today to best protect your family and home?
(Excerpt) Read more at fox35orlando.com ...
My local Fox Affiliate has its ‘Extreme Weather Center” segment. There is no regular weather segment anymore. It’s all “Extreme Weather”.
Mine is ‘storm team’
I’m still waiting on today’s solar disruption again. Will that ever actually happen?
Just draw a circle around the Confederate States.
They will all be dead before Thanksgiving.
Live in fear.
Last year many “weather experts” including the vaunted weather channel predicted Ian would make landfall around Tampa almost until it hit......then it made landfall at Fort Meyers....that’s 130 mile error in their forecast. How many people let their guard down around Fort Meyers because of thst incompetence?......they don’t know to a certainty and no one should assume they do.
I have a local weather guy that’s as accurate as any of ‘em and I trust him because he attends my church.
“Live in fear”
That’s sure as heck what they want
I’m waiting for Putin to strike off a nuke...................
It used to be that you could go deep on the National Hurricane Center website and compare actual and forecast hurricane tracks on an ongoing basis. This provided a corrective against erroneous forecasts and drift from projected hurricane tracks. That was eliminated though to "prevent public confusion." There are commercial forecasting services that still provide that data, with the better forecasters using it. Most though simply repeat the official forecast.
In truth, even though hurricane forecasts have gotten much better, there is an inherent unpredictability to the whole enterprise. Fortunately, Florida has done a lot over the last two decades to harden public services and better prepare for the aftermath of hurricanes.
OMG there’s a category 8 squirrel over there. It will duck the asphalt off the roads.
Damn Yankee know nothing about storms.
Ian started coming in at ft Lauderdale, then hollywood,then Miami, then the keys. You don’t know where it’s gonna go until it’s close. Check the barometric pressures that’s a real good indicator
(1) The Weather Channel does not make its own forecasts -- particularly when it comes to Hurricanes. They -- and almost everybody else -- regurgitate only the official forecasts coming from the National Hurricane Center.
Why? Because of things exactly like this: they don't want to end up being liable for a failing in case the storm ends up on a different path.
(2) Guess what: this storm ended up on a different path. It was a true outlier. You can see that on page 66 of the NHC's after-action report on this storm where EVERY storm model has Ian figured for a landfall anywhere between Sarasota and Perry.
Yes... Ian had nasty consequences for the Ft. Myers/Naples area, but -- particularly when the track parallels a coastline -- all bets are off. That's exactly why Hurricane watches and warnings encompass a very large area, and why most evacuation orders are for areas where they ultimately aren't needed.
The end result is usually that people are complaining that they were marked for an unnecessary evacuation.
Oh, by the way: on September 27th, 2022, Ron DeSantis issued an evacuation order that included the counties ultimately hit most directly by Ian... Collier, Lee, Charlotte.
Yeah, that came late in the game, but it was because the State was caught off guard just like everybody else.
I guess the old saying is right: one screw-up erases about 50 "atta-boys" with regard to forecasts and most everything else in life... but you never hear the praises for those correct forecasts.
*could*.
*potential*.
Same as every year.
Joe Bastardi is one of the best.
I would take his warnings seriously.
The hurricane predictors are always wrong.
“Oh, by the way... Joe Bastardi’s 2024 forecast screams “BUCKLE UP” for the Hurricane season — everywhere in the Gulf of Mexico wrapped around to the middle of the NC Outer Banks. I think one might consider just leaving Florida all together this Summer.”
In 2021 Bastardi predicted that a thunderstorm in Central America would turn into a Cat 1 or strong tropical storm and hit my area (lower Alabama) in two weeks. Two weeks later we got hit with by Tropical Storm Claudette . That was an amazing forecast.
Have wondered why I lived in Miami for 10 year and never had a hurricane in all that time. I think one in Key West. shijfting to TNTN we had an underground cabin with one room on ground level. Had a safe escape room behind a shelf down stairs. One of our neat abodes. I just wonder why people who live in hurricane territory don’t have escape places real close.
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