Posted on 05/30/2024 4:01:16 PM PDT by lasereye
Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.
Donald Trump is still the favorite to win the 2024 Presidential Election, despite a guilty verdict that makes him the first former president to be convicted of a felony in American history.
His odds have shifted slightly from earlier this week. Prior to the verdict, Trump was a -150 favorite, meaning oddsmakers gave him a roughly 53% chance of winning the election. After being found guilty of falsifying business records, Trump's odds have fallen to -112, which translates to a 48.28% to win the election.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden's odds to emerge victorious in November moved from +160 (a 34% chance) to +145 (a 37.3% chance). A $100 bet on his odds would earn $145 in profits.
Trump was convicted Thursday on 34 felony counts relating to a case in which he provided hush money through his former fixer, Michael Cohen, in order to cover up his affair with porn star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election. His sentencing is scheduled for July 11.
The conviction means Trump could be sentenced to up to four years in prison, but the appeals process is lengthy. In addition, Trump could receive just probation when sentenced later this year.
| Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -112 | 48.28% |
| Joe Biden | +145 | 37.30% |
| Michelle Obama | +2000 | 4.35% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +3000 | 2.95% |
| Kamala Harris | +5000 | 1.79% |
| Gavin Newsom | +5000 | 1.79% |
| Nikki Haley | +6600 | 1.36% |
| Chase Oliver | +10000 | 0.90% |
Then put your money where your mouth is.
Really? Do you even know what you are talking about?
There are no more free elections.
No. Quit dreaming.
Same as all the loons swearing the Klan will be swapping Joepedo out. Especially those who think they are putting mike obama in.
Prediction? Trump’s life is literally in danger. Republicans, generally speaking, will continue to sit on their hands and, at best, offer lip service to their nominee (I’m looking at you Mitch McConnell).
Trump will win the real vote count but lose the election because the fix is in again and the GOP will quietly and happily celebrate in the hopes that “things can get back to normal” (i.e., the swamp).
The lefitst/globalist cabal will be energized and accelerate their efforts to take down America and impose a one-world socialist government.
Q-Anon will finally lose what credibility it has left as virtually none of what it “predicted” will and has never, come to pass. Where we go one, we go all, is into chaos and upheaval and Hell because those who were supposed to stand up and fight when they had the opportunity and positions of power were either bribed, compromised or both and kept quiet while the attack on America took place right in front of their eyes.
Prediction? Trump’s life is literally in danger. Republicans, generally speaking, will continue to sit on their hands and, at best, offer lip service to their nominee (I’m looking at you Mitch McConnell).
Trump will win the real vote count but lose the election because the fix is in again and the GOP will quietly and happily celebrate in the hopes that “things can get back to normal” (i.e., the swamp).
The lefitst/globalist cabal will be energized and accelerate their efforts to take down America and impose a one-world socialist government.
Q-Anon will finally lose what credibility it has left as virtually none of what it “predicted” will and has never, come to pass. Where we go one, we go all, is into chaos and upheaval and Hell because those who were supposed to stand up and fight when they had the opportunity and positions of power were either bribed, compromised or both and kept quiet while the attack on America took place right in front of their eyes.
I never heard of Chase Oliver before.
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