ZEEPER FOLLIES PINGLIST!(((PING!)))
Posted on 05/25/2024 6:11:48 AM PDT by canuck_conservative
In mid-2022, Gazprom restricted gas flows to Europe in what was seen as a move by Putin to get both leverage against Kyiv's allies ahead of the winter season and retaliate against Western sanctions and support of Ukraine.
But the EU managed to find alternative long-term sources of gas imports and free itself from most Russian piped-gas imports ...
Gazprom's revenue fell by 41 percent year-over-year in the first half of 2023, while sales profits dropped 71 percent and gas production by 25 percent...
The report said the company's upstream gas-production base is now isolated because infrastructure connecting its main western Siberian fields with alternative Asian markets is lacking. It also failed to build LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) plants in western Siberia to reroute natural gas to alternative markets.
Building a new pipeline to China would cost around $100 billion, the Atlantic Council said, and this price tag might be difficult to turn a profit from Moscow's ally given that it is "most likely selling gas to China at a significant loss."
Berlin-based energy analyst Thomas O'Donnell told Newsweek that Gazprom's woes have shown Putin's tactic to use Russian gas as a lever against Europe had backfired.
"It was intended to shock Europe and force them into submission with an energy war to prevent their acting in solidarity with Ukraine to his surprise, this did not happen," he said, "Putin has a lot of gas and he can't sell it."
Milov concluded that while Russian oil and gas industries and Russia's public finances are too resilient to collapse, "they are suffering enormous difficulties due to sanctions and decoupling from the Western energy markets."...
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
No wonder Putin is desperately trying to force Ukraine to surrender!
I’m sure energy hungry China wants nothing to do with Russian gas. Rigghtt!!.
Warmonger ping!
Is Russia too big to become part of China’s Belt and Road initiative?
Europe was and is committed to phasing out the use of natural gas.
Russia would have a natural gas customer issue even if there was no war.
Russia lost Germany as a fuel customer in June 1941.
Russia could use otherwise unmarketable natural gas to make solar cells.
If China doesn’t buy enough Russian gas, Russia will simply have less money to buy Chinese-made chattels.
Tens of millions of Americans do without luxuries year after year.
Overpaid DC war lovers need to realize that for most people in the world doing without is a never-ending fact of life.
I’ll take some. Not a problem.
Thank heavens for US gas LNG for Europe despite Biden’s efforts to shut ‘er down.
You finally admit the stupidity of the neocon project where there is no chance of NATO conquering Russia as well as stupidly forcing our two main competitors into an alliance. Good for you. If I could give you a cookie I would.
China is playing hardball
They know Russia is under sanctions and desperate to sell, so China is getting steep discounts on its Russian gas
And China has no intention of paying any premium prices, they’ve got Russia in thumbscrews right now
Russia won’t be making much money selling to China, as long as the sanctions are in effect ...
The source for this report was Alexander Milov, mentioned very briefly at the end of the excerpt.
He is exiled from Moscow. He worked in their energy ministry and apparently made some bizarre proposals to break up GAZPROM. Putin chose not to pursue his plan and he went into exile in 2002, to Vilnius from where he declares Putin is a murderer to anyone who will interview him (for pay) so he can make a living.
Here are some pre 2022 facts about natural gas. From the Statistical Review of World Energy — published for about 70 years annually by BP. It’s a big spreadsheet. Get it here from BP’s outsource — https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review scroll down to the choice of .pdf or spreadsheet. Definitely choose spreadsheet because there are so many tabs.
Russia’s natural gas reserves are 37.4 trillion cubic meters. In the world of gas be very careful with units. Propaganda often tries to quote in trillion cubic feet and this corrupts the number to big, eyes-glaze-over amounts.
This 37.4 number does not include the Bazhenov shale, which they have had no cause to even begin to frack.
The #2 gas source in the world is Iran at 32.1 Tcm. Qatar #3 at 24.7 Tcm. The US is about 12 Tcm.
Flow for the Russians 702 billion cubic meters for 2021. 2022’s number down to 638 bcm. That’s for the year. Iran flows about 260 billion cubic meters, the buyers of which seemed not to care about sanctions.
US output post Covid 2022 was 978 billion cubic meters. That is 0.978 trillion . . . out of 12 Tcm reserves and those reserves include shale, the fracking of which is, of course, underway.
Global gas consumption is 3.9 trillion cubic meters/year.
US consumes 881 billion cubic meters per year (of the 978 production). Russia consumption 408 billion cubic meters/yr. China consumption 376 billion cubic meters/yr in 2022 — down 1% from 2021 (they had Covid issues a year or so behind rest of world). Their pre Covid 2019 consumption 308 billion cubic meters. So 2022 is up 22% from 2019. That ain’t slowing down, and Russia is the place with spare capacity that doesn’t have to ship by sea where they can be blockaded.
“
No, its on the road to becoming a Chinese province.”
Do you think that’s a good thing? I don’t, and we’re driving them together. I know you are a foreigner and don’t care about the USA, but this is bad for us.
“Berlin-based energy analyst Thomas O’Donnell told Newsweek that Gazprom’s woes have shown Putin’s tactic to use Russian gas as a lever against Europe had backfired.“.
Never happened. They never cut off gas. The west in the other hand blew up Nordstream, refused to allow compressors out for service in Canada to return, made it impossible to get paid for gas and seized their gold and cash from earlier sales. Finland stopped imports. The west has engaged in economic war against Russian gas, not the other way around. Through it all, Russia has never cut off deliveries.
But Berlin, and Atlantic Council again….
5 times as expensive.
You missed this significant quote from the article:
“while Russian oil and gas industries and Russia’s public finances are too resilient to collapse”
So, waiting for the Russian collapse that isn’t going to happen isn’t going to work. He may be trying to force a surrender, but he has the option of the slow attritional grind down. Unless we get in it, Ukraine is going to run out of manpower and have to surrender.
ZEEPER FOLLIES PINGLIST!(((PING!)))
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