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Trump Holds Edge Over Biden in Seven Key Swing State Polls
Emerson College ^ | 4/30/2024 | NA

Posted on 04/30/2024 4:50:55 AM PDT by Redmen4ever

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state polls find President Biden trailing former President Trump in the states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; the differences are within each survey’s margin of error.

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Arizona; US: Georgia; US: Michigan; US: Nevada; US: North Carolina; US: Pennsylvania; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: arizona; biden; emersoncollege; georgia; michigan; nevada; northcarolina; pennsylvania; trump; wisconsin
Two-way: AZ +2, GA +3, MI +1, NV +1, NC +5, PA +2, WI +2; Five-way: same in MI, higher margins for Trump otherwise
1 posted on 04/30/2024 4:50:55 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: Redmen4ever

If Demonicrats count the ballots and control the voting machines, they, not the voters, will decide who wins. This has been demonstrated in previous presidential elections. Expect it to happen again.

2 posted on 04/30/2024 4:54:41 AM PDT by Carl Vehse
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To: Redmen4ever

Margins too thin. Dem voter fraud will result in a Biden victory ... and the end of the US and the rise of an Islamic Caliphate.

3 posted on 04/30/2024 4:55:26 AM PDT by Kaiser8408a (i )
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To: Redmen4ever

Biden will win easily.

4 posted on 04/30/2024 4:58:37 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: Carl Vehse

Without a doubt that’s what they’re going to do. You can thank the GOP for standing back and allowing it to happen and pretending its not.

5 posted on 04/30/2024 5:07:02 AM PDT by CommieCutter
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To: Redmen4ever

It would be great if comments about poll results refrained from constantly mentioning fraud. Its getting really old and tiresome. It would be wonderful if we can revert to good old analysis that Freerepublic is famous for, like the affect of registered voters vs likely voters, reputation of polling company, affect of recent events, trends, comparisons to history or other polls.

6 posted on 04/30/2024 5:21:29 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Redmen4ever

Wait until the economy takes a dive before October, it will be outside the margin of error. Not wishing it but it looks like it is coming. Thanks Bidenomics! FJB.

7 posted on 04/30/2024 5:22:55 AM PDT by wetgundog
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To: nwrep

It would be great if you provide analysis to your forecast.

8 posted on 04/30/2024 5:23:05 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Redmen4ever

Is it possible some life-long Democrat voters are tired of being taken for granted, taken for fools, and expected to pretend they don’t know they are being serially lied to?

I realize the vast majority of them are hopelessly brainwashed, but all it would take is for 10% to get red-pilled, and that would be enough for President Trump to surpass the margin of fraud.

This appears to be happening already in the Black and Hispanic communities, and perhaps among secular Jews. Why not women too?

You can’t tell me there aren’t some life-long Democrat voting women who can see through the blatant corruption and gaslighting that defines today’s Democrat Party.

I know… I sound like Pollyanna - but hope springs eternal, I guess.

9 posted on 04/30/2024 5:44:49 AM PDT by enumerated (81 million votes my ass)
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To: Redmen4ever

it is SO frustrating that the Democrats somehow took control of Virginia!

The Democrats would of been completely blocked from the presidency if that hadn’t happened at this point

10 posted on 04/30/2024 5:51:11 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
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To: Carl Vehse

Thanks Carl. Next time get your facts straight. Republicans count votes too. Vote-counting is a decentralized process in the U.S. Perhaps too decentralized (because many localities do not have viable two-party systems). We can and should clean up the voting process. Florida has shown that this can be done.

The best analysis of the potential of vote fraud to impact the 2020 election is that it wasn’t large enough to change the outcome of the election.

IN ANY CASE, there is a larger hidden Trump vote than the dead Democrat vote. If we’re ahead in the polls going into the election, we’ll very probably be well head when the votes are counted.

11 posted on 04/30/2024 5:52:45 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: Raycpa
It would be great if you provide analysis to your forecast.

I believe the assumptions behind the discipline of polling, which worked so well until recently, have been violated and superseded by the ballot producing machinery deployed by the Democrats. As a result, the distribution of ballots will not follow the population statistics assumptions behind polling, making polls irrelevant and wrong.

12 posted on 04/30/2024 6:08:48 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: Redmen4ever

I have been wondering how much “adjustment” is being made by the pollsters for the clear undercounts of Trump voters in 2016 and 2020. I am sure they are making some changes to try and account for the “hidden” Trump voters but have not seen much public discussion from pollsters on this.

It is clear if the undercount from 2016/2020 holds in 2024 and the polls remain where they are Trump should win fairly comfortably. Right now it’s a clean sweep of the swing states, the RCP no tossup map has it at 312-226.

I am cautiously optimistic at this point.

13 posted on 04/30/2024 6:24:40 AM PDT by oldskoolwargamer2
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; BraveMan; cardinal4; ...

14 posted on 04/30/2024 7:16:13 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Putin should skip ahead to where he kills himself in the bunker.)
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To: Kaiser8408a

Stop it. Trump will win.

15 posted on 04/30/2024 7:45:09 AM PDT by toddausauras (Trump 2024)
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To: oldskoolwargamer2

Their semi-official analysis of 2020 admitted to the undercount, but claimed to not know the reason.

AAPOR [American Association of Public Opinion Research] (2021). An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls.

In fact, the mainstream polls continue to this day with large Democrat shares in their samples, contradicted both by the Exit Poll of 2020 and the trends in voter registration in states that register voters by party. The alienation of the working class by the elites has its effects. One of them, to turn more people on our side off to participating in polls. Having said this, the 2022 polls didn’t seem seem out of whack. So, maybe it’s Hidden Trump voters and not simply Hidden Republican voters.

16 posted on 04/30/2024 7:58:12 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: Redmen4ever

This level of Trumpian lead would result in a popular vote win and about 320-340 EVs. As reality dawns on these chodesmokers the stay-at-home factor for Rutabaga is going to be off the charts.

17 posted on 04/30/2024 9:39:17 AM PDT by LS
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To: TexasFreeper2009

The loss of Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire & Colorado to the Dems over the past 20 years has boxed the GOP in.

18 posted on 04/30/2024 10:56:00 AM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: enumerated

well said, enumerated.

The Democrats supposed the future of America was to be determined by skin color. (They are such racists!)

In fact, Hispanics are moving en masse to the Republican Party, just as the so-called white ethnics a century ago.

For the Hispanics, as for the white ethnics, a generation or so in the Democratic Party was part of the process of assimilating into the country. We are such as country that we can assimilate new people and our ever-changing culture adapt.

African Americans aren’t the model for “other minorities.” They are a unique subculture. Hence, the Hispanics, like the white ethnics before them, leap frog the African Americans.

African Americans are the only large identifiable group that overwhelmingly votes a particular way (Democratic since the 1950s). They look in the mirror and see a color, not a human being. This is maybe slowly changing. Until it actually does change, African Americans are condemned to the bottom of the American socio-economic ladder.

The Democrats thought that formula would apply to the Hispanics. But, thankfully, they were wrong in the case of the Hispanics. Hopefully, one day, they will be wrong in the case of African Americans.

19 posted on 04/30/2024 11:17:01 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: LongWayHome

The drifting of some states to the left: People who have blinders on only see the drift of certain states to the left. They don’t recognize that other states have drifted to the right. Ohio, Florida and Iowa used to be competitive states that have drifted to the right.

We have a theory to describe why elections tend to be close and why it is unusual for any one party to dominate elections. It’s called the Median Voter Theory. Parties are usually flexible enough to appeal to enough voters to each have a fair chance of winning. Outcomes are usually close enough to be determined, at the margin, by results such as how well the economy is doing. During the 1980s, this theory was popularized as The Misery Index.

It seems to me the other side is stuck in a miserable place, with the green agenda, massive redistribution, and being soft on crime and having a foreign policy of appeasing aggressors. Furthermore, their idea that they will win votes based on skin color and other dimensions of identity politics is exaggerated. That might still work with African Americans, but it doesn’t work with, for example, Hispanics. Again, it seems to me, the Democrats are the ones that are boxed in, not the Republicans.

20 posted on 04/30/2024 11:28:41 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
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