Posted on 04/06/2024 2:17:04 PM PDT by Vlad0
Far from this being a frozen conflict, a nightmare scenario is edging into view because the West is failing to send arms.
Manual Excerpts
Contrary to the predominant view that this is a perpetual “frozen conflict”, with neither side able to win a decisive advantage, the front line is bitterly contested and there is a real risk of Ukrainian forces being pushed back. Nato leaders must hope their gathering in Washington in July for a summit celebrating the 75th anniversary of the alliance is not consumed by such a crisis.
Only a year ago, it was all very different. The hope then was of a Ukrainian spring offensive that would reclaim territory. That didn’t work and, as the American magazine Foreign Affairs put it this week, “Ukraine is bleeding. Without new US military assistance, Ukrainian ground forces may not be able to hold the line against a relentless Russian military.”
The governments who support Ukraine most strongly are clearly worried and considering even the worst scenarios. The US Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, has issued several warnings that Ukraine is running out of money, while urging Congress to pass the aid bill that is stuck amid legislative infighting. The US risked being responsible for Ukraine’s defeat, she said.
A Russian advance would obviously be disastrous for the Ukrainians. It would also confront the West with all manner of tough challenges. Would the allies send troops to defend Kyiv?
President Macron has clearly sensed the danger and is trying to steer the West towards a more muscular approach by raising the possibility of ground troops. Other countries, such as Germany, strongly object. When will the message be finally understood that peace for European populations is guaranteed only by strength? When Ukraine falls and Putin moves on to menacing the Baltics, Poland, Finland, Sweden or Norway?
I don’t think Putin has any interest in taking Kyiv. His demands have not changed since the war began.
I don’t see why this can’t be resolved with an out of war settlement.
We bought Louisiana from the French without a shot fired same with Alaska and the Russians. They sold because because they knew they could never really secure their territories.
Ukraine has no chance of ever getting their southern provinces back or of reclaiming Crimea. They are throwing good money and blood at a lost cause. AND its our money.
Ukraine should make a deal while they still can. Sell the territory to Russia. Doesn’t have to be cash since they are broke. Get low price guaranties for energy and other tangible benefits or whatever the Ukrainians think they need.
I believe Russia would jump at the chance just to improve their world image and end sanctions. Unfortunately the EU and the US would do all they can to block it. For some stupid reason they want a conflict with NATO and Russia.
Kiev fell when Crimea fell under The Magic Negro....
Ukraine ping
The author is saying the Ukraine will lose without foreign supplies, just as Russia would have been defeated by Germany without US and British supplies and Allied attacks on Germany, including air raids that razed big chunks of German cities. For instance, the US sent 14,000 airplanes and 13,000 tanks to Russia, including ~5,000 of the Airacobra, a fighter first made in 1941.
“I want to tell you what, from the Russian point of view, the president and the United States have done for victory in this war,” Stalin said. “The most important things in this war are the machines.... The United States is a country of machines. Without the machines we received through Lend-Lease, we would have lost the war.”
Nikita Khrushchev offered the same opinion.
“If the United States had not helped us, we would not have won the war,” he wrote in his memoirs. “One-on-one against Hitler’s Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and would have lost the war. No one talks about this officially, and Stalin never, I think, left any written traces of his opinion, but I can say that he expressed this view several times in conversations with me.”
, the United States provided the Soviet Union with more than 400,000 jeeps and trucks, 14,000 aircraft, 8,000 tractors and construction vehicles, and 13,000 battle tanks.
However, the real significance of Lend-Lease for the Soviet war effort was that it covered the “sensitive points” of Soviet production — gasoline, explosives, aluminum, nonferrous metals, radio communications, and so on, says historian Boris Sokolov.
“In a hypothetical battle one-on-one between the U.S.S.R and Germany, without the help of Lend-Lease and without the diversion of significant forces of the Luftwaffe and the German Navy and the diversion of more than one-quarter of its land forces in the fight against Britain and the United States, Stalin could hardly have beaten Hitler,” Sokolov wrote in an essay for RFE/RL’s Russian Service.]
Yes, that plus a de-nazified, neutral Ukraine with a Russia-friendly government.
Russians aren’t interested in seizing Kyvv. It is not a military objective.
So maybe the happy talk has ended, but the insanity remains. After deindustrializing in order to go all in on the finance biz, the West no longer has the capability to match Russia, or China, bomb for bomb, drone for drone, and plane for plane.
Besides Ukraine, we have commitments in Israel, a need to beef up our presence in the East China Sea, and a need to replenish our own arms reserves in case of future aggression against us.
Even if somehow $60 billion of weapons will help, how many Ukrainians are left to wield those weapons? The Ukrainians have done well in creating tough defensive works that have slowed any Russian advance. They have also done well to replace planes with ever more sophisticated drones that can protect their positions, harass the Russian troops, and inflict damage on the Russian economy.
Still the longer the war lasts without full NATO support, the more likely the Russians will be knocking on the door to Kiev. And if Ukraine ever does get full NATO support, then it's time to put on about 12 inches thick of high SPF sun block and dig out your old welding glasses.
Screw Kiev they should go for Odessa and cut Ukraine off from the sea completely. That would give Russia the upper hand in any negotiations.
They might want the Russian sector of Key-Ev east of the Dnieper.
Kyiv will never fall. The people will rise up, and chase out Zelensky and his crowd. New Government will take power and call a peace conference in Turkey. Russia gets all it has (and a little more), Ukraine get to keep Odessa. and some free gas for five years. Not join NATO or EU and get some good deals in trade with Russia. Peace after six weeks of talks. No one gets what they want, but it will be over—only question is when? July? August?
Biden limited oil distribution, exploration and production. The price doubled. Russia and Iran launched their adventures within a year.
After the terrorist attack, I think that deal is bot even open for discussion anymore. But I do believe that if Ukraine chose to remain neutral, the fighting might come to an end.
Ukraine ping
[I can’t believe that the western powers are so stupid and ignorant of history. That part of the world around the Ukraine has been embroiled in conflict since the dawn of history. There are never any winners.]
In theory, the Western Allies pre-WW2 had 4x Germany’s economy. In WW1, France, with British help, had stalemated Germany for 4 years. The general consensus was that a German invasion of France would again result in stalemate. Then all the theories became moot as Germany overran France in 6 weeks. On paper, the West should be able to hold Russia when it advances beyond Ukraine. The reality is nobody knows. That’s why the West is supplying Ukraine.
Biden will have more flexibility after his reelection.
After the fall of Kiev, and “Peace is given a chance” the Ukrainian Killing Fields will begin. Similar to what happened in Cambodia in 1975 when the communist “liberators murdered millions.
Putrid is a wannabe Stalin. He will finish the job that Stalin did with his engineered terror famine:
https://youtu.be/PsM3YoPiloE?t=7
Wait and see.
About your Ukraine ping list. I can see the first nine names, and four of them have left the building for various reasons. Maybe the lack of participation is a clue as to how badly you need to update it?
You wrote something similar to me in regard to Odessa - as if a river is some mystical, inpenetrable barrier that can't be overcome.
Armies (and Navies and Air Forces) have breached/crossed rivers for thousands of years. This one has.
Not sure what ypu're thinking.
Russia wants a neutral Ukraine, I.e., not a member of NATO. It wants official recognition that Crimea is part of Russia. Ditto now for the separatist controlled part of the Donbas. Formerly, they wanted greater autonomy for those Russian-speaking provinces.
In return, they will cease hostilities.
Ukraine has no chance of regaining any lost territory. The longer the war goes on, the more territory Ukraine will lose.
US military aid won't make a bit of difference. Ukraine has severe manpower shortage that can't be solved.
We've already spent $150 billion on Ukraine and the Ukrainians have lost 20% of their territory.
Now, Ukraine's military is shambles. There is a manpower shortage. More military aid won't make a bit of difference.
Only a surrender will preserve what is left of Ukraine.
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