The US in particular had been pumping Ukraine up with weapons, training, intel... since 2014 in large scale. Ukraine had become a formidable force and Russia knew that, they even commented on that.
The gamble: Given Ukraine's strength, is Russia really willing to pay such a high price to stop Ukraine accession into NATO through the use of military force, or will they acquiescence?
The problem in this gamble is that it made no sense, not from a Ukrainian perspective. Ukraine already had 95% of what you can ever dream of. EU membership was well under way, their military was strong, their economy was growing, they already were conducting training with NATO, already had foreign troops in their country training them, getting Western military hardware... Is it smart to risk everything for that 5%?
—Risk: risk = probability X magnitude. The probability was high, especially knowing that Russia prevented the same in the Republic of Georgia 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. The Russians aren't having this! The magnitude is unpredictable but extremely high, worse than in 2014 with Crimea. If the probability is high, and the magnitude is extremely high, risk is very high.
—Return On Investment: (ROI) didn't make sense. The truth is, Ukraine already had almost everything they can dream of, even massive Western military assistance... If you have very high risk but the return is really just marginal, ROI is out of whack.
High risk and low ROI = bad decision.
Unless of course Ukraine isn't the real objective.
IMHO, because Mr Z is a plant, he does what he's told to do, like a good Jumping-Jack: https://cdn.imago-images.com/bild/st/0100681467/m.jpg
It is us, the US, that is put in a bad position if you have EU expansion without a corresponding expansion of NATO. NATO is our club and we exercise a lot of influence in Europe through this organization.
If Mr. Z truly were independent, i.e. sovereign, and acting in the best interests of Ukraine, he would have passed on our October 2021 offer. When Mr. Z pushed ahead with NATO in October 2021, he was risking war, and tipped his hand. His actions were sort of telling who his master is.
The war is already over at this point. Russia achieved their political (No NATO) and military (seize the ethnic Russian areas, degrade Ukraine's armed forces) objectives. The comparisons to WWII are fairly accurate. It's like Germany in the winter of 44, holding on, but without any realistic chance of turning things around. It's just a matter of how many people we let die so that some political timeline (the US 2024 election cycle) is best served.
The outcome at this point is pretty much set: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 What you see is likely what you're going to get. Things won't change much, except that Ukraine will lose more and more ground, a little bit at a time as time goes on. Again, what would make sense for Ukraine is to end this, but is the Mr Z really “sovereign” and acting only in the best interests of his people? Just like this war was needless, continuing this war post failed counteroffensive is needless, it's over. But a lot of people still need to die.
There are two scenarios I came up with (most probable and most dangerous), and it's looking like the most dangerous course of action is what will play out, we will procrastinate and drag this out until after our elections. If Trump wins, and he ends it, it looks bad for him, not Biden. If Biden wins, he will also end it, but the elections are over and if he ends it now, it would look like a failure, which it is. The reason why the most dangerous course of action is possible is because Ukraine has NOT become a major election issue thanks to a MSM that is very favorable to the Democrats/Biden, the uni-party Republicans, or those stuck in the past, that refuse to make this an opposition party issue. Biden is getting a "get out of jail free" card on this issue.
There are no ethnic Russian areas of Ukraine. There are areas that are Russian speaking which is a big difference. My wife, from Alchevsk near Lughansk city is one of those Russian speakers and she, her friends, and family, are patriotic Ukrainians. Of course the Neo-Soviets, like the old Soviets love to move populations around as part of their cultural genocide. It is so nice of a Texan like you to talk down to Ukrainians about their own country. And how is it that a Texan buys into so many Moscow lies? Your cited causes of the war puts your insanity on display.
Liberate Alchevsk! Death to the invaders!
