Trump will not give a penny to Ukraine - Hungary PM Orban

BBC ^ | March 11, 2024 | Jaroslav Lukiv

[McGruff]

"He will not give a penny in the Ukraine-Russia war. That is why the war will end," the conservative premier said after meeting Mr Trump in Florida.

...

"It is obvious that Ukraine cannot stand on its own feet," Mr Orban told Hungary's M1 TV channel late on Sunday.

"If the Americans don't give money and weapons, along with the Europeans, then the war is over. And if the Americans don't give money, the Europeans alone are unable to finance this war. And then the war is over."

He added that Mr Trump had "pretty detailed plans" on how to end the Russia-Ukraine war - but did not elaborate.

[JonPreston]

the war exposed NATO as the paper tiger.

It certainly has, and for the real kick in the azz of the American taxpayers, Ukraine isn't a NATO nation but here the "defensive alliance" is involved knee deep, as it was in Serbia and Libya and Afghanistan, etc.

[Mariner]

This is also why Ukraine will send a hit team after him...

[cymbeline]

“Nukes aren’t considered pennies.”

What is exchanged for what is beyond my knowledge.

[silverleaf]

Damn straight the Nazis “ looked pretty good”
Unless you were a Jew or a village that resisted the nationalists

Given the Uke nationalists shared dedication with the nazis to ethnic cleansing and creating a “pure” Ukrainian state

Sounds familiar again, today…..

[Lurker]

WWII was a complete ****show in Europe. It was the largest mass slaughter of human beings in history. So if after almost 20 years of being starved, sent to gulags, and hung in the streets by Stalin and his goons the Ukrainians looked on the Nazis as liberators I don’t really blame them much.

I can’t imagine the horrors they’d endured. And people over there have some very, very long memories. My Ukrainian friends talk about The Holdomor like it happened last year. There’s a Ukrainian Orthodox Church the next town over with a huge memorial to it.

Great pirogies for sale there on weekends btw. Delicious.

L

[silverleaf]

Do they talk much about Babi Yar?
There were more Ukrainian executioners than Germans.

How about Korosciatyn, Huta Pieniacka, Khatyn, and the other massacres of Polish villagers in Galicia and western Ukraine?

The Ukrainian nazi units that perpetrated terror on Jews, Poles, “partisans” that supported Russia vs nazi Germans, and their own ethnically impure neighbors are still celebrated today.

But yes, when the Germans were defeated, by the Soviets, the Uke ultranationalist/nazis avoided war crimes tribunals by turning their purification drive on the communists, which endeared them to the Western strategists looking to continue war against the Red menace and encouraged continued Uke internal purges and killing of “ collaborators”

[Lurker]

History is complicated. And it would be incredibly rude of me to bring those things up to them. I served in the Corps with several native Americans and I didn’t think it proper to bring up any of the atrocities they visited on white settlers. Nor did they bring up any of the atrocities whites inflicted on them.

No society or nation has an unblemished history, including ours. For example we were perfectly happy giving bunch of Japanese and Nazi scientists citizenship in return for their knowledge of bio weapons and rocket technology. Does the name Von Braun mean anything to you?

L

[skepsel]

Top O’Neill?
Same party as Bubbe Clinton?

[yuleeyahoo]

SEATO was disbanded shortly after Nixon opened up relations with China. The same should have been done with NATO.

NATO is a solution looking for a problem.

[Pilsner]

Freepers who would like to have have some facts to intermix with their opinions, should consider Australian Youtuber Perun.

Excerpts:

28:09
If we look at production estimates in one of the most important categories, that is artillery ammunition, then the best estimates we have for Russian output figures are significant although still probably short of where they want them to be. Per RUSI report, Russia internally assesses that they need about 4 million 152mm and 1.6 million 122mm rounds in 2024. That's not counting MLRS ammunition, mortar ammunition, or even other artillery calibres like 130 or 100mm.

28:36
And it brings home just how fires intensive the Russian way of war is. Against those requirements, Russia expects to produce about a third of the 152mm it needs, and about half of the 122. These figures I'd argue present really a mixed bag for Moscow.

28:51
On one hand it means that Russia is producing more 152mm rounds than Europe is producing 155. It means that when you factor in the fact that Russia is still estimated to have a stockpile of about 3 million main calibre artillery rounds, and to be able to source somewhere between 1 and 3 million rounds from North Korea, that even if North Korean deliveries can't continue at the same rate in 2024,provided Moscow is willing to run its artillery storages well below the red line there's probably enough ammo there to give the Russian army what it says it needs for the course of 2024.

29:21
Beyond that however, again barring any foreign deliveries, things get a little more dicey. The deeper you go into storage, the worse quality the rounds are likely to be in,and as a result the harder and more dangerous the restoration process is likely to be. Further, so far a lot of the ammunition production ramp up has been based on using excess capacity. You take understaffed ammunition plants that are running 8 hour shifts 5 days a week, you convert them over to running 24 hours a day 6 days per week and quite quickly you have a lot more output.

29:50
If you want to go beyond that however, you arguably end up where the Europeans and Americans were. Where you actually need to set up new infrastructure and production lines almost from scratch in order to enable further scaling. To quote from the RUSI report, "The Russian MoD does not believe it can significantly raise production in subsequent years unless new factories are set up and raw material extraction is invested in, with a lead time beyond 5 years".

30:13

35:18
… Pivoting to US and allied production, we have seen significant increases in output for key munition natures. There are already bright spots, the Estonian MoD suggests that the goal should be to provide Ukraine 8,760 GMLRS rockets per annum. Well, Lockheed Martin is already at an annual rate of 10,000, with a plan to increase to 14,000 this year. But with regards to unguided 155mm shells, given the low starting point there is still a long way to go. Last October the US was producing about 28,000 155mm rounds per month.

35:52
By April that's due to be 37,000 and by October 60,000. At which point, after some of the new Texas facilities come on-line, the US will be producing about half as much 155 as the Russians do 152(mm). 2025 is then expected to see even further increases, reaching 75,000 shells per month in April and 100,000 in that October. Meaning we are about 18 months from US 155 production being where Russian 152 is right now…

36:26
Meanwhile in the Eurozone, 2 years into the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it does appear people have finally decided that now might be a good time to sink a bunch of money into new ammunition production. Norwegian production facilities have gone over to extended shifts. Germany is planning a new facility with a 200,000 round per annum capacity. The UK is building up its capacity.

36:45
And the overall estimate for the European Union (so sorry UK) is that there'll be an annual capacity for about 1.4 million 155mm rounds by the end of 2024. Now on one hand, those are some serious numbers. It means that combined, the US and European Union should be producing significantly more 155 than Russia can produce 152. And on paper that should be a massively winning combination for Ukraine, because 155 is on average a more dangerous round with a longer range. And the artillery systems Ukraine is using to fire themare on average more modern, longer ranged and more accurate. Provided of course that Ukraine receives the 1,500 to 2,000 replacement artillery barrels that it's estimated to need every year. And those figures probably give you some understanding of just how many Russia might need.

37:30
Back to shells however, the problems are probably threefold. Firstly, funding and investments need to continue to flow to make sure that capacity comes on-line in time. Which may also require regulatory changes. Secondly, a lot of European ammunition production continues to be exported to countries that are not named Ukraine. That may be good for business and very profitable, but there might be a policy question there as to whether or not companies should be required to prioritise Ukrainian orders.

37:55
And then finally there's the problem that all those lovely figures are for the end of 2024, not the start.

[Widget Jr]

What denial?

Trump has said he has had a plan to end the war for a year. He has not stated what it is. Any plan he proposes has to get support from the public and congress. Those are facts.

At some point, Trump will have to publicly commit to his plan. The longer he waits, the greater the risk of his plan backfiring on him.

[Bobbyvotes]

Tip O’Neill was democrat speaker of house, a powerful speaker.

[skepsel]

Perhaps, but you called him “Top”.

[Bobbyvotes]

Nah that is the fricking auto-correct. I typed Tip, and auto correct changed it to Top without even telling me.