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No soft landing: The US economy is going to fall into recession in the middle of 2024, Citi's chief economist says
Yahoo Finance ^ | February 16, 2024 | Aruni Soni

Posted on 02/16/2024 8:22:31 PM PST by lasereye

The soft-landing dream is over; instead, the US economy is headed for a recession in the middle of 2024, Citi says.

"There's this very powerful and seductive narrative around a soft landing, and we're just not seeing it in the data," Citi's chief US economist, Andrew Hollenhorst, said in a CNBC interview.

"The question is where are these forward-looking indicators showing us that we're going to go," Hollenhorst said.

One place the economy is showing a weakness is the labor market. January had a blowout jobs report, adding 353,000 jobs to the economy. But Hollenhorst noted that if you scratch beneath the surface, the number of hours worked is falling, the number of full-time workers has decreased, and sectors such as the restaurant industry have stalled on hiring.

"That's the key to the economy — what happens in the labor market," Hollenhorst said. "If the unemployment rate stays low, people continue to spend, the economy holds up." But he added that the unemployment rate was expected to start rising, which would be "the sign that we're going to have a more material decline in the US economy."

Hollenhorst also said inflation was still too high. This week's data from the consumer price index did show a higher-than-expected uptick in monthly inflation, which dragged stocks lower on Tuesday.

Credit-card delinquency rates are also rising. The top economist David Rosenberg has said a consumer credit default cycle has already arrived, with one in every 12 credit-card holders missing their payments.

And consumer weakness is also exposing itself in retail sales numbers. Thursday's release showed a significant drop in activity, posting a 0.8% decline in January.

Hollenhorst isn't alone in his pessimism. Apollo Management's Torsten Sløk recently echoed the sentiment that a soft landing is now the "least likely" scenario.

(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2024; economy; recession
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To: Fai Mao
"I want 50% unemployment and riots in the streets. I want people on the left to feel it in their bones"

We are of a mind. I've been preparing for this since 2008, when Obama promised to "fundamentally change America".

"All things are ready if our hearts be so!"

21 posted on 02/16/2024 11:02:52 PM PST by The Duke (Not without incident.)
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To: lasereye

If an economic collapse is what it will take to wake America up, then bring it.


22 posted on 02/17/2024 4:21:37 AM PST by TwelveOfTwenty (Will whoever keeps asking if this country can get any more insane please stop?)
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To: lasereye

The fix is easy. Trump 2024. Drill baby drill. Stop all government funds to illegals. Those that don’t leave on their own because they will no longer receive freebies like Medicaid, food stamps, free housing, etc.. we will have to deport on our own. Also, no more money to Ukraine.


23 posted on 02/17/2024 5:06:59 AM PST by snippy_about_it
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To: lasereye

Higher inflation rates seem more likely to me.

Hard to fall into a recession when the federal government is printing $4.3 billion of new debt - EVERY day!


24 posted on 02/17/2024 5:58:26 AM PST by zeestephen (Trump "Lost" By 43,000 Votes - Spread Across Three States - GA, WI, AZ)
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To: SaveFerris

We’ve been in-and-out of a recession, since 2021. We’re headed for a depression now, though not on the magnitude of 1929.


25 posted on 02/17/2024 6:04:18 AM PST by Carriage Hill (A society grows great when old men plant trees, in whose shade they know they will never sit.)
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To: lasereye

I think the thud landing won’t happen until after Jan of ‘25. The party machine wants to keep the dims in the White House.
They will prop up the economy to keep the news rosy all through ‘24. Then there are two options:

1. Trump wins, the economy crashes and Trump gets the blame.

2. The dims steal another election, the economy crashes and Trump gets the blame.


26 posted on 02/17/2024 6:07:32 AM PST by Texas resident (Biden=Obama=Jarrett=Soros)
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To: Fai Mao

“(1) breaks democrats’ bones”

Good one!


27 posted on 02/17/2024 6:57:53 AM PST by cymbeline
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To: lasereye

We’re already in a recession. The numbers have just been skewered to convince the masses otherwise and to try and save face in the WH.


28 posted on 02/17/2024 6:59:46 AM PST by ducttape45 (Proverbs 14:34, "Righteousness exalteth a nation: but sin is a reproach to any people.")
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To: lasereye

Democrats controlled decline in action they are clueless when if it comes to how to make profits they have something infused in them to spend spend spend.................................


29 posted on 02/17/2024 8:42:01 AM PST by Vaduz
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To: lasereye

All I know is last week. Cheapest eggs were 8 a dozen.


30 posted on 02/17/2024 10:58:01 AM PST by Organic Panic (Democrats. Memories as short as Joe Biden's eyes)
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To: Carriage Hill

(We’re headed for a depression now)

I think so as well.


31 posted on 02/17/2024 12:08:07 PM PST by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the Days of Lot; They did Eat, They Drank, They Bought, They Sold ......)
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To: Organic Panic
All I know is last week. Cheapest eggs were 8 a dozen.

Sign of the times: at local stores this week, were fully stocked supplies of cut flowers and Valentine's Day treats... after Valentine's Day was over. Stores still asking full price but no buyers.

Overheard: women saying they didn't want flowers for Valentine's Day; they wanted free meals and food because of inflationary prices on groceries.

I don't know what the stores are going to do with all the unsold flowers and other items, a big loss for them.

32 posted on 02/17/2024 12:36:12 PM PST by roadcat
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To: lasereye

They want to make it rough on the next Trump presidency, so they can blame it on him.


33 posted on 02/17/2024 12:43:15 PM PST by SamAdams76 (6,575,474 Truth | 87,429,044 Twitter)
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To: Fai Mao
I hope the economy crashes so hard that it (1) breaks democrats’ bones. (2) the illegals decide Guatemala wasn’t so bad and go home. (3) Joe Biden is publicly tarred and feathered along with his advisors.

I wholeheartedly agree on everything except #3, and I am wondering what France is doing with their guillotines, but barring that - is there a shortage of good stout rope?

34 posted on 02/18/2024 8:04:20 AM PST by The Sons of Liberty (Evil Personified: Traitor Joe & The Ho are building their campaign on the bodies of aborted babies.)
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