gaffer:
"Seems to me the predictor winds should consider that Ukraine has formally applied to NATO, but has NATO actually voted upon and given Ukraine NATO Official Aspirant status?" This map shows NATO members in blue with various categories of other partners in different colors.
Ukraine shows here among "Enhanced Opportunities Partners" along with Georgia, Sweden & others.
Note that Australia, Japan and SoKo, among others, are shown as "Global Partners".
For full key on different colors, see this link.
What all these terms mean in practice is anybody's guess.
This map lists Ukraine & Georgia as "Countries seeking membership", as opposed to Sweden and Bosnia which are said to be "in process of accession"
Good feelings and intentions are two different things. As of July 2023, the Ukraine had a three-step - two step process to get by before being
formally asked by NATO to join NATO. I don't expect that to happen until the war is resolved, frankly.
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3455199/leaders-agree-to-expedite-ukraines-nato-membership/