Posted on 01/13/2024 8:28:31 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Two prominent psephologists cautioned that some high polling results for Donald Trump among Black voters were "quirky," given the smaller sample sizes in individual polls, and emphasized the importance of aggregating such polls, ten as a minimum, for a more accurate assessment.
Finding no such research available, I undertook what is, I believe, the first such analysis of the cumulative data from 17 current polls with a subset of Black voters, which revealed a striking, if not historical, shift in Black voting preferences toward the Republican Party, and particularly to Donald Trump.
Collated were notable polls from reputable sources, which were included in the Real Clear Politics and 538 aggregates, such as Suffolk, Siena/NYT, BigData, Fox, I&ITIPP, CBS, Emerson, and Rasmussen.
The aggregate of all 17 polls showed that 21.9% of black voters intend to vote for Donald Trump, with many individual polls showing Trump polling above 20%; for example, ActiVote had 34.4% of the black vote going to Trump.
The Trump preference range of individual polls varied from Blacks Yahoo News at 7% to HarrisX at 38%, demonstrating the importance of aggregation for a more comprehensive understanding.
Even if, on election day, it drifts back, I very much doubt it would drift back to the 12% Trump received in 2020. Even, say, 16% + stay-at-homes in the right cities would be a huge game changer.
Pollsters, somewhat bewilderingly, struggle with their own results. The highly respected I&I/TIPP poll found Blacks Trump 23% (up 4 from previous) "Concern for Democrats is Trump now holds a shocking 23% of the black vote, more than doubling his support from that key voting bloc since the last election. Add weakening support among Asian voters, Biden could be in big trouble.”
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
An NBC poll put Trump’s black support at 20%.
Based on these historic polling numbers, aggregated for the first time, you can expect a combination of Blacks: 3rd/4th party/stay-at-homes and direct switch to Trump equal to a minimum of a direct 15% or plus vote for him.
GenForward, which is a Black/Hispanic specific pollster, has Trump at 17%, which number could be decisive. Karl Rove has taken that further, noting the possibility of Black voters choosing third-party options (Cornel West if he gets on ballots) or abstaining from voting, indicating a potential shift away from traditional Democratic support. Black voters might choose a third-party option because they want "someone else," per a Nov. 30 GenForward survey -- or they might not vote, an inclination that was 10% higher among blacks than whites in the same poll. Suffolk similarly noted, “[Trump] has closed the deficit because third-party voters come off of Biden’s support among Blacks.”
Real Clear Politics suggests the potential for Trump to double his 2020 total, with a growing percentage of Black adults indicating they may not vote at all.
If these polls are reliable, there seems to be a shift from John McCain (4%) to Donald Trump (12%) in 2020 — and now polling at 21% in 2024.
There might be a slight increase in black *male* support for Trump. But there will NEVER be an increase in black *female* support for him. If anything, they’ll navigate closer to 0%.
In January 2020...just before the public unveiling of the CoupFlu...a gathering of MAGA Trumpers in south central Pennsylvania was told that merely a 10% increase in the black vote for DJT would hand Pennsylvania’s EVs to Trump.
+1
Those who seek a perpetuation of the welfare plantation are crack’s of the worse kind.
I really don’t understand why. It is so obvious the country is going the wrong way. Why do they persist in that opinion?
It is no longer slight on the black male side.
You’re exactly right.
Aren't those the guys who can read the bumps on your head?
Considering the disaster that Joe Biden has been as president, and the fact that no honest, fair-minded person would argue at this point that Biden capable of handing the job, Trump should easily win in November. And yet I’m not optimistic. This isn’t a fair fight. The deck is stacked. The Dems have become masters at manufacturing votes out of nowhere. D’Souza’s movie proved that. Does it matter if Trump gets 15, 20, 25 percent of black votes if Biden gets 100% of the massive phony votes?
Wait until Congress starts expanding work permissions to illegal aliens, which will pretty much bump blacks out of their jobs. Isn’t that something Johnson is supporting with the RATs?
“a gathering of MAGA Trumpers in south central Pennsylvania was told that merely a 10% increase in the black vote for DJT would hand Pennsylvania’s EVs to Trump.”
We’ve got to get out of the mindset that ANY vote or voter will have an impact on the results of elections. That was made clear in 2020. Going to a polling place and casting a ballot seems like a form of masturbation. It might make you feel good for a few minutes, but it results in nothing effective.
And that’s probably about 35% of black men and 5% of black women.
An admirable share of black men want to make it on their own in the market, but an unfortunate share of black women don’t expect the fathers of their children to support those children—and so are cleaved to government promises of payment.
Our policies created it all.
I’m SO glad to welcome minorities to the Conservative agenda
I looked up that word when I read the article. I had never run across it before.
I would like to see this analysis performed on dead voters.
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