Posted on 12/28/2023 12:10:51 PM PST by conservative98
On the menu today: The cover piece in the newest issue of National Review has Ron DeSantis fans grumbling that it’s far too early for such a gloomy assessment of his campaign because not a single vote has been cast yet. Fine, but to believe that DeSantis has a shot of winning Iowa, we need to believe that his support is at least 15 percentage points higher than his highest numbers in recent polling and that Donald Trump’s support is at least 15 percentage points lower than his lowest numbers in recent polling. (If you simply take DeSantis’s best number in a poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers since summer and Trump’s worst number, Trump wins by 17 percentage points.) Optimism also requires us to ignore just about everything that’s happened with the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down in recent weeks.
The Outlook for DeSantis
Ron DeSantis fans offered a recurring objection to my cover piece about the dismal state of the GOP primary in the latest issue of the magazine.
“Not a single vote has been cast yet!”
Okay.
What do you want me to tell you, that DeSantis is looking just dandy in Iowa? That Nikki Haley’s looking great in New Hampshire and that she doesn’t need Chris Christie to drop out and endorse her to have a shot at winning that state’s primary? That either one is looking likely to beat Trump in South Carolina?
I can lie and make you feel good, or I can tell you the truth and tell you things that will likely depress and frustrate you. I put this choice before people yesterday; so far, about 85 percent of respondents say they prefer hearing what’s going on, even if it doesn’t make you feel good. Oh, and I cannot emphasize this enough, “both” is not an option.
Never mind winning the Iowa Republican caucus, DeSantis hasn’t been above 22 percent in a poll of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers since June. Trump hasn’t been below 39 percent, and lately Trump has been surpassing 50 percent.
“Jim, the polls are often wrong!”
Are they? Are they often “wrong” to the point where the candidate who is trailing by 30 percentage points wins, and the candidate who was leading by 30 percentage points ends up losing on Election Night? Are they “wrong” to the point where the candidate consistently down by 30 points finishes close?
FiveThirtyEight ran the numbers on 2022 and concluded that public polling is actually getting more accurate, not less.
In our opinion, the best way to measure a poll’s accuracy is to look at its absolute error — i.e., the difference between a poll’s margin and the actual margin of the election (between the top two finishers in the election, not the poll). For example, if a poll gave the Democratic candidate a lead of 2 percentage points, but the Republican won the election by 1 point, that poll had a 3-point error.
As we’ve written many times, some degree of polling error is normal. Taken altogether, the polls in our pollster-ratings database have a weighted-average error of 6.0 points since 1998. However, polling in the 2021-22 election cycle had a weighted-average error of just 4.8 points, edging out the 2003-04 cycle for the lowest polling error on record.
When you’ve got a close race where two candidates are running neck and neck, then yeah, you’re going to see some late polls that project the wrong winner. But not in a race like the Iowa caucus, where Trump has consistently been ahead by 30 points or so.
“What is your source other than polls?”
What do you think, the pro-DeSantis Never Back Down super PAC canceled a whole bunch of television advertising reservations because everything was going so well?
You think Jeff Roe left and the super PAC fired a bunch of top officials because they were spending all that money too efficiently and didn’t want to run up the score against Trump?
You think it’s a good sign that “federal records show that, by the time of the Iowa caucuses, the DeSantis campaign is on pace to spend significantly more on private jets — the governor’s preferred mode of travel — than on airing television ads”?
You think it’s good news that roughly 75 percent of DeSantis’s campaign money came from donors who are tapped out and have donated the legal maximum?
Look, maybe that much-touted door-knocking effort by Never Back Down will have some effect. But if it was building up support for DeSantis, don’t you think we would see at least some sign of growing DeSantis support in some recent poll? Actually, as bad as DeSantis’s numbers are, in most surveys he’s actually improving. In the Fox Business poll, DeSantis increased from 15 percent in September to 18 percent in December. In the Emerson poll, DeSantis increased from 14 percent in September to 15 percent in December. In CBS News’, DeSantis increased from 21 percent in September to 22 percent in December. In the Iowa State/Civiqs survey, DeSantis remained flat at 17 percent from October to December, and in the Des Moines Register poll, DeSantis increased from 16 percent to 19 percent.
Another objection: “You just hate DeSantis!”
I was one of the first ones out of the gate making the argument that a President Ron DeSantis would be good for conservatives, good for moderates, and even good for progressives — and you’ll notice I wrote that argument for DeSantis in a venue that is not perceived as particularly pro-DeSantis.
If he’s still around when the Virginia primary rolls around, I’ll probably vote for him. I’ll probably vote for either DeSantis or Haley, whichever non-Trump option looks stronger at that point. I know that a bunch of Haley fans see DeSantis as Beelzebub and a bunch of DeSantis fans see Haley as Lilith; lots of readers reacted to the suggestion of a unity ticket as blasphemy. But a few of us out here look at the pair and see two conservative governors who would represent a huge upgrade on the current occupant of the Oval Office.
I see a lot to like in DeSantis. But that doesn’t mean I’m blind to his flaws or in denial about how much of an underdog he is right now, or how high the climb ahead of him is. You folks do know that just because I’m telling you something doesn’t mean I like it, right? Have you run into so many people who only report the narrative that they prefer that you’ve forgotten that human beings are capable of reporting what’s actually happening, whether or not it’s what they want to report?
Do you think the people who report on plane crashes were rooting for the plane to crash?
Not every bit of bad news you hear is part of some elaborate, far-reaching, and insidious psychological operation to dampen your morale. Sometimes, the news is just bad. Sometimes the candidate you love goes out and flops, and sometimes the party’s base is hell-bent on nominating somebody else.
A couple of people were shocked and irked that Ron DeSantis wasn’t mentioned, either by Bill Scher or myself, in yesterday’s discussion of 2028 options.
Granted, a lot can happen between now and the primaries of the 2028 presidential election cycle. One of the central points of yesterday’s newsletter is that it is impossible to predict the mood and preferences of the party’s primary voters four years or so down the road.
But do you think all those Trump fans who detest DeSantis right now will come around to the idea of DeSantis as the nominee by 2028? Do you think Trump will put aside his grudge against DeSantis?
Four years from now, DeSantis won’t be coming off a huge win in his reelection bid. (He’s term-limited and can’t run in 2026.) Will he have the financial advantage he had when he started this campaign?
DeSantis is probably going to get demolished in Iowa in about three weeks. And whether or not he leaves the race after that, the outlook in the subsequent states isn’t great...
Lol, even if Christie dropped out and endorsed Haley she wouldn’t gain much.
Ron to staff -
Look. Here’s some things we can focus.
We tried real hard and we’re still dear friends.
Cripes, this guy is finished. Why waste a minute thinking about him?
It does seem a bit heavy on the ink.
Everybody can read the writing on the wall. But the candidate can’t very well drop out before the caucus. What would he say? He will probably hang in past New Hampshire too. Not long past.
If Ron suspends his campaign anytime between now and right after NH, he will have a political future. If he tries to ride it out too far afterward, he won’t. Someone with better credentials than I needs to get him to understand this.
Ron DeSantis is like a vice president or a backup singer at the Metropolitan Opera, waiting for an opening.
No opening is guaranteed, but if you aren’t on call, you won’t get the call.
Biden tried to become President quite a number of times.
Perseverance can pay off.
There is a desperate, utterly desperate desire by a gazillion GOPe journalists to refuse violently to accept that politics is changed forever by Donald Trump.
It is forever. It is never going back. Those who have spent a career in politics will be rejected. They are Swamp Filth and there is nothing they can do about it. Their lives are over.
The future candidates will have to be from business or the military. The Independents won’t accept anyone with a political career.
Bottom Line, Both Haley and DeSantis should drop out and get behind Trump if they truly believe the GOP should govern.
This loser POS and his GOPE carer are OVER!
Hit the bricks azzhole.
In Europe and Argentina the Leftists running for office have at least been instructed to ACT conservative, since Leftism is now so discredited.
Apparently with most of the other GOP candidates the hatred of Trump is too much for them to overcome and so they look like idiots they are, even before the voting begins...which, of course, is a good thing.
The article was funny because the National Review went from DeSantis is the future of the GOP to this guy is terrible and Ron’s name shall not even be mentioned for 2028, move long.
Remind me. Has anyone ever gotten the nomination without winning the Iowa caucus?
He can only blame himself for the implosion. It was mismanaged from the start. Remember the lame twitter announcement and his failed UK/Korea/Japan tour.
This had to kill Trump-hating Geraghty to write.
Even a spoogie like he can see the writing on the wall.
I disagree. Unlike Cruz, who stepped in it big time but after the convention came to Trump’s defense from time to time, the DeSoros machine has so poisoned the well-—far worse than the Cruzers-—that I think he is finished.
Think Doug Douchey in AZ. Same year as DeSoros won by 18, Douchey won by 14 in a much more competitive state. Then he locked the state down and stabbed Trump in the back.
In 2022, when he left office, his reputation was so horrible he couldn’t even run in the PRIMARY for the GOP senate nomination. To be specific, he was polling below Kimberly Yee, who dropped out due to . . . low polling. I think this is where DeSoros is at.
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