Posted on 12/22/2023 9:04:44 PM PST by FarCenter
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The little hard data we have on Russia comes mainly from one source, an anti-Putin group who have people in Russia who have, since the beginning of the war, continually searched local newspapers as well as thousands of websites all over Russia looking for obituaries or blogger “memorials” to family members or friends.
They have been able to find about 36,000 documented deaths. They estimate that they are missing nearly 50% and currently place their “guesstimate” of total Russian deaths at “47,000 – 70,000.” What does this imply for total casualties, that is, killed/wounded/missing/prisoner?
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Assembling public source data from various campaigns during the war – the run into Kiev, the fight for Mariupol, the counter-attack in Kharkiv, the fight west of the Dnepr River, the battle for Bakhmut, the 2023 summer counteroffensive – suggests a total of 55,000-65,000 Russian KIAs as of the end of November, which falls comfortably inside the 47,000-70,000 estimate cited above.
That is as good an estimate as we can get at this point. Using a 3.5 ratio of WIA to KIA, we obtain 47,000 KIA and 164,500 WIA (low end) and 70,000 KIA and 245,000 WIA (high end), or total casualties between 211,500 – 315,000. That is quite close to estimates circulated by the US National Security Council.
Other data became available late summer in the form of reports that came from first a maker of prosthetics and later from a non-profit that was trying to provide prosthetics to Ukrainian soldiers who have lost limbs.
AD This is extremely useful because the rate of loss of limbs in combat remains within fairly narrow ranges, at between 4.5% and 7% of total casualties. So, if you have seven amputees, it follows that you would have something like 100 total casualties. And if the 1/3.5 ratio is used, that would translate into 22 KIA and 78 WIA (again rounding off).
The data on the ratio of loss of limbs to total casualties are available online in studies at the National Library of Medicine. In the Iraq and Afghanistan wars of 2001 to 2011, 5.2% of all serious injuries (which roughly equates to WIA) were amputations.
In Vietnam, the number was 5.9%. The number was around 2% for all of World War I, though that number is an overall average; the rate was substantially higher at the end of the war than at the beginning
We have two data points on amputees in the Ukraine war. One report, from the Associated Press at the end of July or early August, estimated that the number was being withheld but that there were “more than 20,000” Ukrainians in need of prosthetics.
If that represents 7% of total casualties, that would translate into 285,000 total casualties, or 63,000 KIA and 222,000 WIA. If the lower percentage were used (4.5%), that would suggest 440,000 total casualties, or 97,000 KIA and 343,000 WIA. If we use the US number from Iraq and Afghanistan (5.2%), then the casualty total would be 385,000, split between 85,000 KIA and 300,000 WIA.
Two other data points are available from the non-profit that is attempting to provide prosthetics to Ukrainian amputees and from a German prosthetic manufacturer. Both figures are from September, which would mean these numbers are now higher.
The non-profit said that there is a need for 59,000 prosthetics; the German manufacturer gave the number as “more than 50,000.” Using the 50,000 number, and 7%, would give casualty figures of 700,000+, or 155,000 KIA and 545,000 WIA.
Using the 4.5% figure gives total casualties of 1.1 million, with 245,000 KIA and 855,000 WIA. It is difficult to get a feel for which number is best, but a conservative estimate would place Ukrainian casualties at 100,000+ KIA and 350,000+ WIA.
Those old “Hogan’s Heroes” jokes about the “Russian Front”...
https://youtube.com/watch?v=NTDrLEOB1lA&t=26s
That is roughly the equivalent of America losing appx 1.2 million soldiers, about 20 times what we lost in Vietnam.
Folks here will tell you that the Ruskies have lost over a gazillion.
X/Twitter ^ | Douglas MacgregorPosted on 12/13/2023, 10:10:36 PM by Kazan
Douglas Macgregor
@DougAMacgregorThe Russian's are now capturing Ukraine Soldiers in their 70's and children as young as 13 forced to fight for their country.
The war is over, Make peace you fools..
6:11 PM · Dec 13, 2023 · 245.7K Views
And we will continue to support Ukraine until the last Ukrainian is dead.
And U.S. currency is devalued to less than any Turd World's.
Can you say, "Great Reset"?
No one outside the MoDs has any idea of KIA, MIA or any other category counting any aspect of personnel.
Read that again. Maybe twice.
Now here is the real bad news. You never will know the numbers. Ever.
When the war ends there will be official numbers. They will still have agenda in them. They won’t be believed, most loudly by these wackos who imagine they are doing meaningful analysis [and whose own numbers differ from those released.
All part of Brandon’s great replacement
First, Ukraine’s medevac is awful. One dies in place in most cases after losing a body part. Second, very few of the surviving amputees are getting prostetics.
If that’s the case then according to BabaOreally that eans Russia has lost between 1,500,000 and 4,500,000.
Her Russia casualty rate is 10 to 30 times Ukraines loss.
Gotta luv the propaganda from both sides.
Asia Times = bogus ChiComm propaganda
IGNORE
Yup, that was the plan by DickheadCheney and KillerNuland to goad Russia into a fight to kill the 75% Uke Christian population down to the last man... truly an evil plan while licking their chops for stealing everything of value during Uke “rebuilding”! It’s what the neocon commies do... ymmv
With 1,328,000 active military in the US forces (plus 800,000 reserves), 1.2 million KIA would put a hole in our defense capabilities.
Ignoramus alert.
Ukraine lost 150,000 alone in the failed five-month counteroffensive that started in June.
That is why the average age of the Ukrainian solider is now 43, why women are being forced to the frontlines and why Ukraine needs to conscript another 450,000 to 500,000 troops.
Sources say snide ukraine say 500k ukie deaths.
Not one ukie had to die.
Zelenskyy’s going to have to ask for more money to pay those benefits to all the widows and family members.
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