A little off topic, however, I’ve always been dubious of polls....since the great red wave of 2022 that wasn’t, I downright don’t believe any of ‘em no matter what they say.
The great wave may have occurred if not for senator Graham from South Carolina who proposed federal legislation to outlaw abortions after 15 weeks. It certainly allowed the left to take control of both houses of the legislature in Minnesota.
“A little off topic, however, I’ve always been dubious of polls....since the great red wave of 2022 that wasn’t, I downright don’t believe any of ‘em no matter what they say”.
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Your premonition to be wary about the current polling is wise. I continue to maintain that Trump remains the only Republican candidate Democrats stand a chance to defeat in 2024. The national polling could show Trump leading by 20 points over Biden, but these three facts remain:
(1). In certain densely populated locales in key swing states (Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee, Fulton County), a vast majority of those residents live in fear that a Republican victory poses a real threat to their government checks. As such, going back to the first Obama campaign the Democrats have put into place a fine tuned turnout operation that can overwhelm GOP votes in lesser populated parts of those states. This is even without accounting for whatever voter fraud operation is in place in those locations.
(2). Trump’s brash and bombastic style is attractive to some of the electorate, but has proven to be a real turnoff to many suburban women voters, who otherwise would be inclined to vote for a Republican candidate. An AP Axios poll from the summer of 2023 revealed that 53% of the electorate would not vote for Trump under any circumstances. It’s no surprise that so many of the current polls show Trump topping out at 47%. (He received 46.8% of the vote against Biden in 2020).
(3). Trump has made unforced errors in the past that continue to haunt him. His stupid taunt of John McCain (“real military heroes don’t get captured”) cost him Arizona in 2020. Arizonans haven’t forgotten that. Also, Virginians in suburban D.C. (i.e. government workers) will always support those who pose no threat to the status quo (meaning Democrats).
Presuming Trump gets the nomination and skirts round the numerous legal obstacles he is facing, he may still squeak by with a victory over the feeble and corrupt Biden. That would be fine, but it is certainly no sure thing, for the aforementioned reasons.
I think on that one (the red wave) the polls were right and democrats knew they could get away with fraud.
I think on that one (the red wave) the polls were right and democrats knew they could get away with fraud.
Also, on this one democrats WANT Biden to step aside so the polls are reflecting the truth. In most election years pollsters have Republicans way down - almost up to the election and they the race ‘tightens’.
President Romney....
All part of the psy ops. Like what Chuck Shumer said “It’s gonna be a blood bath” on conveniently placed “hot mic.”
Dont believe public polls, it is the polls of the campaigns that matter. They have the money to do them correctly. To that extent, we can belive the posturing of the candidate not at once but thru weeks.
The Scotus leak about abortion gave the left something to mobilize the lefty women before 2022, that brought out voters who might have stayed home.