Replies

“A little off topic, however, I’ve always been dubious of polls....since the great red wave of 2022 that wasn’t, I downright don’t believe any of ‘em no matter what they say”.
__________________________________________________

Your premonition to be wary about the current polling is wise. I continue to maintain that Trump remains the only Republican candidate Democrats stand a chance to defeat in 2024. The national polling could show Trump leading by 20 points over Biden, but these three facts remain:

(1). In certain densely populated locales in key swing states (Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee, Fulton County), a vast majority of those residents live in fear that a Republican victory poses a real threat to their government checks. As such, going back to the first Obama campaign the Democrats have put into place a fine tuned turnout operation that can overwhelm GOP votes in lesser populated parts of those states. This is even without accounting for whatever voter fraud operation is in place in those locations.

(2). Trump’s brash and bombastic style is attractive to some of the electorate, but has proven to be a real turnoff to many suburban women voters, who otherwise would be inclined to vote for a Republican candidate. An AP Axios poll from the summer of 2023 revealed that 53% of the electorate would not vote for Trump under any circumstances. It’s no surprise that so many of the current polls show Trump topping out at 47%. (He received 46.8% of the vote against Biden in 2020).

(3). Trump has made unforced errors in the past that continue to haunt him. His stupid taunt of John McCain (“real military heroes don’t get captured”) cost him Arizona in 2020. Arizonans haven’t forgotten that. Also, Virginians in suburban D.C. (i.e. government workers) will always support those who pose no threat to the status quo (meaning Democrats).

Presuming Trump gets the nomination and skirts round the numerous legal obstacles he is facing, he may still squeak by with a victory over the feeble and corrupt Biden. That would be fine, but it is certainly no sure thing, for the aforementioned reasons.