Posted on 12/09/2023 10:41:52 AM PST by lasereye
The Iowa caucuses are less than six weeks away, and only eleven months remain until Election Day 2024. So maybe it is a good time to see what voters think before the nomination process begins.
In the current Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump is up by +2.
--snip--
Let’s look at three items from the polls likely to impact the 2024 election: Joe Biden’s job approval numbers, candidate favorability, and what voters believe are the country’s most serious issues.
--snip--
An analysis of these numbers is pretty straightforward. My first impression is how consistent they are.
Biden’s job disapproval hovers around 55%. Clearly, voters do not believe he is doing a good job as president.
The real issue for Biden is the strongly disapproving numbers averaging nearly 44%. These folks are the ones with the torches and pitchforks. Trump would need the support of only an additional seven or eight percent of the mildly disaffected to get elected.
Favorability ratings are generally underwater for both candidates. The Harris poll was the only one to give either a positive number, which was Trump at +7. Averaging the numbers gives Trump a -8.6 favorability and Biden a -15. Since neither candidate is close to 50%, we will likely choose the person voters see as the lesser of two evils.
The issues voters see as most important are not trending in Biden’s direction. The economy, inflation, immigration, and protecting democracy favor Trump. Climate change did not get high numbers in most polls. Abortion, which was a significant issue in the 2022 midterm elections, is now mostly in the low single digits.
Can the political landscape change before Election Day? Of course. But for now, the Real Clear Politics average of Trump +2 seems justified.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Careful. You are going to tick off the folks who regard 2018, 2020 & 2022 campaign strategy criticism as a betrayal. They don’t seem to grasp that we voted for Trump twice & were praying for his triumphant election & conservative electoral victories across the country. If any political philosophy cares at all about winning elections, it’s supporters have to critique their own sides campaign strategies & the choices that led to its victory or defeat. It helps hone political skills, makes you more nimble & greatly improves your chances of victory in future elections.
If you don’t do it, you get comfortable & lazy. I don’t get what people don’t grasp about that. Some folks don’t seem aware that you can enthusiastically support a candidate AND believe that certain aspects of their campaign could stand to improve. Actually, having supporters that care enough to help you campaign better and smarter shows a hell of a lot more enthusiasm & care than the lazy supporters who tell you you are perfect. Watching somebody whos candidacy you care about- walk into a trap, not being prepared for an ambush on a specific topic or allowing themselves to get sidetracked with unimportant things- is not smart or loyal or decent. I for one do not want to see President Trump defeated. It hurts my heart. I care enough for him & us to want to help him do his best in the election! 😉❤️
What was it?
I’m not a political strategist. Why would I have to know what it should be? You seem to be saying there was no possible strategy to counter the Biden lies.
Biden criticized Trump for closing air travel from China very early in the pandemic. You think they could have made that into a TV ad? But as I say I’m not a political strategist.
Maybe nobody on the Trump team was a political strategist either.
Trump has developed a strange obsession with DeSantis. I guess because DeSantis looked like a threat to him for a little while. How dare he! Trump will hate DeSantis for the rest of his life I guess.
>>”Trump has developed a strange obsession with DeSantis.”
In your dreams. Trump’s competitive and will attack anyone who challenges him. DeSantis decided to become his latest victim when he chose to run. Now he’s getting ready to join the ranks of Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton.
no, they’re there because the dem SoS was counting the votes including the race for governor that she was running in. hobbs also had the mccain loyalist maricopa board of supervisors running interference for her as well
He attacks anyone he considers to be disloyal. Vivek “chose to run” as well, but Trump LOVES him because “he likes me”. Pathetic.
If Trump were truly competitive, he would compare his policy choices with those of the other candidates. But since his record is as pathetic as he is, all he can do is act like a complete fool.
RINOs have no backbone, want to be invited to the parties, and are very fearful of the media.
But then you know all of that.
Stop wasting time on “Biden vs Trump” nonsense.
1) Biden is not going to be the nominee. 100%. It’s Newsom.
2) I don’t think the RNC will allow a Trump nomination. 60% confidence.
Critiquing campaigns does not equal disloyalty & pretending that flaws don’t exist isn’t showing true support either.
My own opinion: I support his belief that the establishment types need to be defeated in primaries. Rinos suck & dont ultimately share some important conservative values. Once the primaries are over, he’d have been smart to support the Repiblican general election candidate, whether they were his first choice or not. Whether we love it or not, presidents have to campaign for members of their parties. He has to stay on decent terms, refuse to get dragged into petty fights & show up to campaign for them. Once the General Election starts, any President needs to go out of his way to congenial to all elements of his party. It’s to his benefit, even with those behaving like jackasses toward him, not to get dragged into arguments. If he shows goodwill & stays classy, he will only benefit from it.
Even if a member of his party is attacking him, he’d have been smart to be the grownup taking the high road & allowing the critics in the GOP to look petty & bury themselves. The people he should be openly sparring with are his opposition party & its members. It’d have been smart not to be openly adversarial with the press. Yes they were always going to attack him & try & bring him down. That’s a reality for every conservative President. Reagan succeeded so well against the media because he went over their heads & slways seemed a sunny optimist. Trump in 2016 was also brilliant about stroking the media’s ego & using them to get exposure. By 2020, he was frustrated with coverage & made the mistake of letting them bate him into an open war with them. Once that happened, they controlled the narrative.
He & evey other Republican or Inependent should have spent time campaigning, advocating, schmoozing and organizing legislation to ensure enactment & enforcement of strict voting laws, participation, identification & oversight at the state & local level, and where needed, at federal level too. This is something which all of us saw happening from a million miles away. We need to hold our candidates accountable for paying attention & being proactive on this issue in particular. It’s something that needed a Presidents leadership in order to get passed. I think failure to treat this as a crucial issue was one of the biggest mistakes made.
President Trump needed to shut down the argument amongst many supporters that sitting out elections because somebody isn’t 100% aligned with everything we want is stupid. Too many of us have convinced ourselves that wishy washy types on our side are as bad as the blatant communists in the Democrat Party. I would far rather support the conservative I am most aligned with in the primaries. But even if my guy doesn’t win the primary, I’m going to support, I’ll support the the candidate in the general election- so long as he’s the most conservative in the race. I’d far rather see a guy I agree with 60% of the ime win the election than the that opposes everything I stand for. To many Trump supporters are not showing up for elections he’s not running in. A President allowing these kinds of practices and thought processes to take hold in his own party has turned out to be self-defeating.
There are things that deserve critique on our side, especially since we haven’t performed as good as we hoped & expected in the last few elections. Those critiques aren’t disloyal or harmful- they’re a helpful & completely loyal way to ensure victory in an election 😉
It’s not a matter if Biden versus Trump it’s a matter of Rigging versus Trump.
I voted for DT twice but not again. I don’t remember him previously trash-talking opponents (”Desanctimonious” -”Birdbrain”) but it says a lot about him - none good. Savvy Dems will help make him the nominee and he’ll lose imo.
HUNTER’S legal issues could trigger serious reactions medically for JOE.
He still hasn’t totally grasped the truth about his wife’s death & Beau’s death.
DUE TO DOMINION VOTING MACHINES
“Trump’s 2020 team and Trump himself were bad at strategery. It has never been clear to me that they even had a strategy. Unless holding lots of rallies constitutes a strategy (it doesn’t).”
He won didn’t he?
IF Trump were truly competitive? There’s no point in reading beyond that point. You might just as well have said “If Trump were truly wealthy”. You live in your own “reality”. It’s not the real world the rest of us live in. Everything about Trump’s life and career demonstrate his competitive nature.
As far as why he would attack the favorite horse candidate of the never-Trump donors more than he would attack a candidate who’s complimentary of him and is clearly aiming for a cabinet position, not the nomination, the question answers itself.
You don’t remember Trump trashing Low-energy Jeb, Little Marco and Lyin’ Ted? Suuure you don’t. That’s just as believable as the idea that you voted for him twice.
Biden has a difficult path to the bath room.
There’s no way they can run this old fossil again.
Counter the lies.
How about people waking the f**k up and not relying on the media for everything.
In this day and age, when damn near everyone has more technology I. Their hands than they did to launch people into space, what more is needed.
You make zero mention of the fraud. Fraud which is being exposed almost daily these days.
You make zero mention of the media.
Good Lord.
Biden has been a trainwreck his entire life. Just like in 2016, Sanders was doing his thing in 2020. He had crowds. He had support. Until he was told to get out of the way for a guy that rarely left his home.
Recently, Eastman had been going through a disbarment hearing in California. One of the things the state has been saying is that all of his theories about election fraud were shot down. He countered that they were never given the chance to have a trial and show their evidence. They demonstrated that Facebook violated the law.
Oh wait, it was messaging. My bad.
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