Posted on 12/05/2023 4:49:27 PM PST by SeekAndFind
With the 2024 election now less than a year away, a new Harvard survey shows a precipitous decline in enthusiasm among young voters since the Fall of 2019.
Compared to the same point in the 2020 election cycle, the number of 18-to-29-year-old Americans who “definitely” plan to vote decreased from 57 percent to 49 percent, the Institute of Politics’ survey at Harvard Kennedy School found.
Estimates of turnout for this age group from the 2020 election range from about 52 percent to 54 percent.
Among party affiliation, larger declines were seen from Republican (56 percent compared to 66 percent in Fall 2019) and Independent/unaffiliated voters (31 percent compared to 41 percent in Fall 2019). There was only a 2-percent drop among Democratic voters.
Looking at demographic groups, dips in voting intention were more pronounced among young black Americans (38 percent compared to 50 percent in Fall 2019) and Hispanic Americans (40 percent compared to 56 percent in Fall 2019), with young white Americans seeing a 5-point drop to 57 percent from from 62 percent.
The same survey showed President Biden leading former President Trump in a hypothetical matchup among adults under 30 who are registered to vote, 48 percent to 33 percent. Nine percent said they are unsure and 10 percent said they will not vote.
A majority of the young voters (69 percent) who support Biden over Trump said they're doing so in "opposition to Donald Trump" getting another term as opposed to "support for President Biden and his policies."
Not surprisingly, then, support for Biden dips when third-party candidates are factored in.
- Among all young Americans, Biden leads by four points in a hypothetical matchup with three independent candidates: Biden 29%, Trump 25%, Kennedy 10%, West 3%, Manchin 2%, Don’t know 31%
- Among registered voters under 30, Biden leads by eight points: Biden 34%, Trump 26%, Kennedy 11%, West 3%, Manchin 2%, Don’t know 24%.
- Among likely voters, Biden’s lead is 16 points: Biden 43%, Trump 27%, Kennedy 10%, West 3%, Manchin 2%, Don’t know 15%. (IOP)
Biden has a solid lead with young voters in the latest Harvard IOP poll. But...
Biden fares much worse when third-party candidates are included. And young voters appear less likely to vote in 2024.
https://t.co/a3ssWsulqx pic.twitter.com/44gjsh4naX— Daniel Cox (@dcoxpolls) December 5, 2023
OUR future leadership if you chose to follow Harvard grads.
RE: OUR future leadership if you chose to follow Harvard grads.
We already have FOUR Justices who are Harvard grads.
Ketanji Brown Jackson ( who says she doesn’t know what a woman is because she’s not a biologist )
Neil Gorsuch
Elena Kagan
Chief Justice John Roberts
4 others are from Yale
Clarence Thomas
Sonya Sotomayor
Brett Kavanaugh
Samuel Alito
The ony one at the SCOTUS who isn’t an Ivy League grad is Amy Coney Barrett, who went to Nrtre Dame.
The Young and the Clueless
I don’t care about any poll.
The Demon Rat party, in cooperation with much of the GOP has crapped all over election integrity.
The FIX is in. Only by a miracle of God Almighty will we see a conservative chief executive again. The way we are going, the wickedness we are seeing, Joe Biden may be the most “conservative” occupant of the Oval Office.
Sorry to be a downer, but there is no way Biden got 81 million legal votes. 0%.
Trump was closer to getting his 75M votes in a legal fashion...but TRUMP had no real chance when 95+% of both party’s establishment wanted him out.
It is not a poll OF Harvard students, it is a poll conducted by an organization using the Harvard brand name. It’s a legitimate poll, as much as any of them are, anyway.
A few of my 12 grandchildren are in that “majority.” I will not live to see the worst of the future but I will, on the occasion of my death, predict the future.
They will not profit from me and what my Estate holds.
“C’est dommage”
I hope you are joking.
If you aren’t joking, the Harvard Youth Poll is a nationwide poll.
Here are some key takeaways:
Fewer young Americans plan on voting in 2024; most of the decline comes from young Republican and independent voters.
President Biden has a solid lead against former President Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup; independent candidates pose a more significant threat to Biden.
Among the most likely voters at this point in the 2024 cycle President Biden leads Trump by 24 points, 57% to 33%.
Support for abortion has increased over the last decade; pro-choice supporters are more likely than pro-life advocates to vote on abortion ballot measures. Eighty-one percent (81%) of female Democrats, 58% of female independents, and a quarter (25%) of female Republicans chose the pro-choice label.
Don't vote!
The 18-29 age group is 50% non-white.
Young Blacks vote 90% Democrat.
Young Hispanics vote 70% Democrat.
Young Asians vote 65% Democrat.
Young white males vote 60% Republican.
Young white females vote 45%-50% Republican.
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