Still going!
The Ukrainian military said it had taken a sliver of Russian-controlled land, a move that might offer some hope but was unlikely to lead to a rapid breakthrough.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/17/world/europe/ukraine-dnipro-river-raid-russia.html
This is strange. The Ukrainian news I saw yesterday made it sound like the breakout from Normandy. I guess not?
However, there is a salient that penetrates the Russian defenses through which two armored battalions have moved
The west bank is high ground with the Dnipro River next to it.
Across the river, there is typically 2 to 3 km of marsh before the ground rises. This marshland was flooded when the Kakhova Dam was breached. It has now dried out enough for the Ukrainians to attempt to occupy it.
The main Russian lines are further back. They can still command the river crossing with artillery and drones, as well as shell the west bank.
Redefining Success in Ukraine
A New Strategy Must Balance Means and Ends
By Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan
Ukraine's counteroffensive appears to have stalled, just as wet and cold weather brings to a close the second fighting season in Kyiv’s effort to reverse Russian aggression. At the same time, the political willingness to continue providing military and economic support to Ukraine has begun to erode in both the United States and Europe. These circumstances necessitate a comprehensive reappraisal of the current strategy that Ukraine and its partners are pursuing.
Such a reassessment reveals an uncomfortable truth: namely, that Ukraine and the West are on an unsustainable trajectory, one characterized by a glaring mismatch between ends and the available means. Kyiv’s war aims—the expulsion of Russian forces from Ukrainian land and the full restoration of its territorial integrity, including Crimea—remain legally and politically unassailable. But strategically they are out of reach, certainly for the near future and quite possibly beyond.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/redefining-success-ukraine
History about to rack up another 100 year war.
They have seized swampland along a river delta. They can’t bring across armor or any heavy weapons. They aren’t going anywhere. When enough of them collect in that place, Russia will blanket the area with artillery.
But Kiev and DC get their headlines. THAT’S what this war is about.
Your thread ties in nicely with the one I just posted.
“Ukraine has sent commandos into the Russian-held points along the east bank of Dnipro river, and recently retook a village there, but the Russians claim they will wipe out the incursion soon enough. Either way, military sources tell me that neither side is likely to make any significant territorial gains in the coming weeks......Ukraine, he says, has been given enough to stem the invasion, but not win the war.”
Is their a military strategist here that can explain why Ukraine doesn’t do a major invasion on the peninsula on the west end. It seems not to be well defended. Drop 1,000 men there and move east.
I don’t want to hear from the “the war is lost folks” I want to have a discussion of military tactics.