“how they’re actually going to win the war.”
Putin’s objectives in invading Ukraine were to establish Russian control over Ukraine without facing significant Western resistance and break the unity of NATO. He claimed the goal was to “demilitarize” Ukraine.
By those standards Ukraine won — like a potential kidnapping victim who fought against the kidnapper and broke a leg, is bleeding, but is still not captured by the kidnapper (Putin’s Muscowy).
By that standard, Ukraine won - it’s now trying to ensure that the kidnapper never has the ability to even attempt to kidnap Ukraine again.
After 2014/2015 Ukraine thought Putin would be satisfied with his pound of flesh in taking both Crimea and de facto the Donetsk People’s republic + Luhansk People’s republic.
But Putin was not satisfied and went for a decapitation move to vassalize Ukraine.
He failed but is only waiting for the world to forget so he can complete his goal. The Ukrainians on the other hand got invigorated and now have a sense of identity (thanks to Putin’s invasion) and won’t submit to the darkness.