I think it highly likely the Texas RINOs would have convicted Paxton without the light of day being shined on them.
All but one of them voted to impeach.
Why would they not vote to convict if it looked like they were going to discreetly get away with it.
Your #4 nails it!
I’m a Trump supporter and while he may have helped here is the guy who saved Paxton:
https://youtu.be/h744mo71vds?si=Ok2lGFVYoGjWK9Jr
Trump and Tony know each other, Tony raised $$ for Trump but pushed away over the “grab the pu$$y” comment but later gave money for Trumps inauguration:
https://www.law.com/texaslawyer/almID/1202784640365/
With all due respect Donald the Texas House managers ran in to a BuzzSaw.