A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters 53(3) ^ | Autumn 2023 | Katie Crombe John A. Nagl

[Reverend Wright]

The Russia-Ukraine War is exposing significant vulnerabilities in the Army’s strategic personnel depth and ability to withstand and replace casualties. Army theater medical planners may anticipate a sustained rate of roughly 3,600 casualties per day, ranging from those killed in action to those wounded in action or suffering disease or other non-battle injuries. With a 25 percent predicted replacement rate, the personnel system will require 800 new personnel each day. For context, the United States sustained about 50,000 casualties in two decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. In large-scale combat operations, the United States could experience that same number of casualties in two weeks.

[Reverend Wright]

Looking at the results from the Ukraine War battlefield, the US military has recognized that the scale of casualties of a peer war with Russia will be impossible to sustain without a draft.

What they haven't come to grips with is that the US Industrial base is no longer capable of sustaining a US military that needs to support and equip an additional 800 replacement troops every single day.

[Rockingham]

The weaknesses of the US industrial base are outside of the scope of the article in that they are primarily under the control of the DoD civilian bureaucracy and Congress, not the Army. Moreover, the problems with the US industrial base have often been the subject of Congressional testimony. Shipbuilding especially has long been a mess due in large part to Navy incompetence at ship design and the unwillingness of Congress to broadly authorize and appropriate for multiyear contracts. The Democrats especially do not like spending for large stockpiles of munitions and military equipment.

[Reverend Wright]

Imposing a Draft is also a function of Congress.

More to the point, if they can’t provide draftees with the basics of uniforms and boots, rifles and body armour, the logistics train to keep them from starving or the transport to move them overseas, even if they can draft the warm bodies, what is the point ?

[McCarthysGhost]

I think another factor is that it appears that both Russia and China are already gearing up for a possible world war while our military recruitment is sagging and historically much lower in quality. Also, the political divisions in America will prevent us from properly uniting and mobilizing to fight. America will lose the war. Maybe that’s the plan.

[Reverend Wright]

The US deindustrialized and offshored its industrial base, while emasculating, feminizing and fagifying its male population.

In addition there are unbridgeable political, social and cultural divisions within the United States, and increasing amounts of elite hubris, cowardice and incompetence.

It’s the perfect storm for an overwhelming military defeat.

[hardspunned]

In other words, now that NATO has started Cold War II, NATO might very well blunder us into WWIII. The report tells us we will have massive conventional casualties even before the conflict goes nuclear. All of this is pretty obvious. The question is how to prepare our military to sustain while replacing these losses. I can save them a lot of money on their follow up study to this one. There is only one way to get the manpower DC will need to replace the casualties of their further globalist misadventures, the draft.

[Candor7]

Joe Bdien has destroyed the US Military with his transgender and critical race theory indoctrination.

Instead:

Call Team America World Police:

[Rockingham]

You have a point, but the Cold War experience of a peacetime draft and a high state of military readiness is the exception for the US, not the rule and it takes political effort to make it happen.

For example, to FDR's credit, even before his reelection in 1940, he emphasized readiness, avoided antagonizing his domestic opponents, and recruited talented and willing Republicans to his administration. Biden and today's Democrats have no such inclinations.

[icclearly]

It’s the perfect storm for an overwhelming military defeat.

Oh, how we have changed!

White is black, right is wrong, girl is boy, boy is girl....you know.

Here's a quick story. I served aboard a submarine in the '60s. One fine day a bunch of naval intelligence guys came aboard and into the bowels of our boat. They "captured" one of our shipmates and hauled him away -- never to be seen again.

We later learned that he had a homosexual encounter in the wonderful land of Key West, and they kicked his butt out of the Navy with a less-than-honorable discharge.

Can you imagine a queer on a submarine? Today he would probably be invited to the White House for a medal ceremony!

[e_castillo]

You think this country has the stomach for that level of casualties?

[dforest]

Absolutely not. We have really stupid people in Washington DC.

[Reverend Wright]

“You think this country has the stomach for that level of casualties?”

---

Obviously not. It doesn’t have the human or industrial resources to sustain that even for a few days.

Imagine sending generation Gender-Queer to attack across the minefields South of Orikhiv.

[Reverend Wright]

“For example, to FDR’s credit, even before his reelection in 1940, he emphasized readiness, avoided antagonizing his domestic opponents, and recruited talented and willing Republicans to his administration. Biden and today’s Democrats have no such inclinations. “

---

The Democrats are no longer capable of doing any of that, even if they wanted to.

And the Republicans are no better. They are at least half of the reason we are here - maybe more.

Trump was able to flag some of this stuff (His question to Milley et al: “When are we going to start winning some wars?”)

But he wasn’t able to change anything, except at the margins. He had Democrat resistance, bureaucratic resistance, Republican resistance, plus his own limitations on managing large organizations.

[central_va]

chgogal posted:

Which POTUS was as successful as Trump? Look at what Trump accomplished:

1. Gas price per gallon was about $2.30;
2. Inflation about 1.4%, mortgage rates were half of what they are now;
3. Unemployment was low before Covid and before Blue Governors shut everything down and we were in the midst of a V-shape recovery until January 22, 2021;
4. Tax decrease; tax laws promoted small businesses as well as large;
5. US enjoyed energy independence - No Green Agenda, no war on energy, No Paris Treaty;
6. No war in Ukraine, no threat of nuclear war, NATO paid its way;
7. China was quiet and we were winning the trade war;
8. US companies were bringing home the jobs due to well executed tax treatments;
9. Peace in the Middle East aka Abraham Accords; US Embassy moved to Jerusalem; and Iran was isolated.
10. Got three non-left “I don't know what a woman is” Supreme Court Justices on the bench allowing Roe vs Wade to be overturned.

Who the heck can accomplish the above in four years while being impeached twice and investigated by Obama's Weaponized Agencies?

[Reverend Wright]

I agree with that list.

I was writing specifically about changing the trajectory of decay and deterioration of the US military, and also the industrial base that feeds the military.

Trump kept the trannies out, but the decadents in the officer corp was not cleaned up, as evidenced by the conduct of Milley et al. during the 2020 riots and around Jan6.

The steel and alum tariffs helped on basic materials production capacity, but the manufacturing capability was not really improved - witness the problems in artillery ammunition and missile electronics production.

I didn’t know about the artillery problems. I just assumed that there was a surge capacity of mothballed factories that just didn’t exist.

I thought that alum and steel capacity was a big win. But there is not much point if the rest of the industrial base no longer exists.

[Rockingham]

If Trump gets back in, he will be able to accomplish far more in the way of reform in that he will be empowered by a deeper base of support and a better sense of what he needs to do. The dysfunction and lapses of the US political system and military have various causes and possible remedies that Trump is now mulling.

[Reverend Wright]

I hope you are right. But the success of their Resistance / stall /delay tactics after 2016 says they will try the same again.

The combination of Democrats, bureaucracy/Deep State and Swamp Repubs is going to be a problem.

One thing that is in Trump’s favour, legislation preventing Schedule F firings never got passed before Repubs took over the Congress.

[Rockingham]

I think that the personally most culpable in the Deep State bureaucracy will have moved on by 2024, as will the worst anti-Trumpers in the Congressional GOP. Perhaps the most important is that Trump seems likely to get back in with a strong popular mandate based on Biden’s failures and corruption.

[icclearly]

I can save them a lot of money on their follow up study to this one. There is only one way to get the manpower DC will need to replace the casualties of their further globalist misadventures, the draft.

Yep. The draft.

That'll sure put a quick stop to sending troops off to die -- and the crazy idea of sending billions over to the clown Zelensky!

The safe-space crowd will go berzerk!

In other words, we're bluffing when we threaten military action. 'Cause ships and planes would be blown up in the first round, and the only thing left would be boots on the ground.

What insanity!