Posted on 09/07/2023 7:32:46 AM PDT by FarCenter
The Qing Dynasty in China, after over 250 years, crumbled in 1912. Led by the Complexity Science Hub (CSH), an international research team has pinpointed key reasons behind the collapse, revealing parallels to modern instability and offering vital lessons for the future.
China is considered today to be the world's largest economy (in terms of PPP). However, this position is not new. In 1820, China's economy already held the top spot, accounting for 32.9% of the global GDP. In the interim, there was a period of decline followed by a resurgence. In 1912, after over 250 years in power, the Qing Dynasty collapsed despite being considerably wealthier at the time than modern-day China.
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Scientists have been attempting to pinpoint the causes behind the fall of the Qing Dynasty for two centuries. Various factors had previously been proposed, including environmental disasters, foreign incursions, famines, or uprisings. However, "none of these factors provides a comprehensive explanation," notes Turchin.
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Firstly, there was a fourfold population explosion between 1700 and 1840. This resulted in reduced land per capita and caused an impoverishment of the rural populace.
Secondly, this led to increased competition for elite positions. While the number of contenders soared, the number of awarded highest academic degrees declined, reaching its nadir in 1796. Because such a degree was necessary for obtaining a position in the powerful Chinese bureaucracy, this mismatch between the number of positions and those desiring them created a large pool of disgruntled elite aspirants. The leaders of the Taiping Rebellion, perhaps the bloodiest civil war in human history, were all such failed elite-wannabes.
Thirdly, the state's financial burden escalated due to rising costs associated with suppressing unrest, declining per capita productivity, and mounting trade deficits stemming from depleting silver reserves and opium imports.
(Excerpt) Read more at sciencedaily.com ...
[The Qing Dynasty in China, after over 250 years, crumbled in 1912.]
Obama, Biden and Harris were in charge; even back then?
They ate too much General Tso’s Chicken.
It was probably the Golden Shower Pork and the Surprising Flavors Beef that did them in.
Really simple, and the author of the article actually wrote that and then went on.
As of today, 7 September 2023, $ 32,907,852,495,123 and rising rapdily. (Note: this number is already out-of-date, so quickly is the debt rising.)
Not to mention the That Wasn’t Chicken.
Sun Yat-sen led revolutionary movements, which led to the overthrow of the dynasty.
If I recall correctly, China was a republic for at time, but then Sun Yat-sen and his people formed an alliance with the Communist party. And us eventually the Communists took over China.
I do not trust scientists to interpret history. They are one-dimensional in their view and do not factor in things like religion and human nature - which prevents them from getting an accurate interpretation of historical events.
And in the Blin-qing of an eye, they were gone
Turchin’s models are fascinating. In this case, he may be right about the background situation, but the straws that broke the camel’s back were wild disparities between Chinese and Western technology, coupled with the poor leadership of the Dowager Empress Cixi.
For example, when pressed by her advisors to put more effort into establishment of a competent Chinese Navy, she blew them off, and instead commissioned a marble luxury yacht which sat at anchor in a pond.
I think a better analogy to our current situation is Ancient Rome:
—Started out as a Republic with strong ideals
—Eventually became ruled by a corrupt wealthy elite and a Republic in name only. Elections were rigged and were a joke.
Every government action was taken to benefit one group of insiders or another—the public good was totally irrelevant to decision-making. Massive and sophisticated propaganda efforts kept the masses confused and distracted.
—Eventually became a dictatorship—not so much because the masses were unruly but because the elite infighting and intrigue for spoils made effective government virtually impossible.
If my memory is accurate, the Qing dynasty was Manchurian, viewed as foreign by the Chinese people, and the Chinese men expressed their shame at foreign rule by wearing that braided pony tail.
The Chinese culture has been around 2500 years. But, China has only been a united country about 10% of that time. Most of that was under the Mongols.
Structural-demographic analysis of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) collapse in China
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0289748
Structural-demographic theory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural-demographic_theory
I figure the primary cause was their loss to Japan in the first Sino-Japanese war a couple decades earlier. Before that, nobody in Asia could touch China, but as they said in Iron Man 2: “If you can make a god bleed, then there will be blood in the water, and the sharks will come.”
Pretty shallow article.
Has this ever not been the case?
“For instance, competition for top positions remains exceedingly fierce. Orlandi cautions, “When a large number of individuals vie for a limited number of positions, political decision-makers should view this as a red flag, as it can, at the very least, lead to heightened instability.”
More likely the result of the Opium Wars
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_Wars
and the Taiping Rebellion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiping_Rebellion
The Opium Wars opened China to the free distribution of Indian opium by the British. The Taiping Rebellion led to 20 to 30 million deaths.
“Eventually became a dictatorship—not so much because the masses were unruly but because the elite infighting and intrigue for spoils made effective government virtually impossible.”
Seems like any form of “representative” government sooner or later will devolve into one ruled by a strongman - king, emperor, tribal leader.
Throughout history that’s been the case with some exceptions here and there.
Don’t forget the vast numbers of young men who castrated themselves in the hopes of serving the Emporer in his vast palace network.
Eunuchs and similarly sexual deviants were widely used in positions of power and often got involved in palace politics.
Sound familiar?
Imho the key lesson for today is one that most Freepers do not want to hear.
You need to know where you are in the progression.
If you are in the Republic phase then full engagement in the political process is the correct and wise move.
If you deep in the corruption phase and are on the way to dictatorship such engagement is a good way to get yourself thrown in prison.
Can you say J6 political prisoners?
Can you say trials of political opponents in kangaroo courts?
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