Posted on 08/24/2023 9:46:43 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
For Ukraine’s Independence Day celebration, Volodymyr Zelensky brought some real fireworks right to the heart of Russia’s occupation. Officials in Kyiv announced this morning that they have landed forces on the western shores of Crimea, raised the Ukranian flag, and have engaged and destroyed Russian forces near two settlements.
No word yet from Russia, but this would be bad news indeed for Vladimir Putin if this beachhead succeeds. If it is a beachhead, that is:
Special forces landed on the western shore of Crimea, near the settlements of Olenivka and Mayak, in a joint operation with the country’s Navy, according to Ukrainian Defense Intelligence.
“While performing the task, Ukrainian defenders clashed with the occupier’s units. As a result, the enemy suffered losses among its personnel and destroyed enemy equipment,” the intelligence agency said.
While they were there, the Ukrainian unit also raised the national flag, it added.
Russia hasn’t commented yet, but their milblogger and nationalist community claims that this was just a sabotage mission. They claim that the Ukrainians staged a raid and then fled under fire in the direction of Odesa. Another source in the Donetsk People’s Republic (the pro-Russia government recognized by Putin) claims to have destroyed the beachhead and “liquidated” 15-20 people. How this information came to Donetsk from the western shore of Crimea has not yet been explained.
CNN calls this “one of the most daring moves yet,” which it certainly would be, as well as one of its riskiest, assuming it is more than a raid. The lines of communication to the western shore of Crimea are aspirational more than solid; Russia still has a Black Sea navy that could easily cut it off. If Ukraine means this seriously as a move on Crimea, it would force Ukraine to shift its counteroffensive efforts to the Kherson theater and move west to relieve pressure on a beachhead on the shore. That is, unless the point of this landing is a feint to get Russian troops committed away from a renewed effort to push east from Kherson to squeeze Russia out of the Donbass.
So far, it’s tough to tell exactly what the Ukrainians have in mind with this move. Indeed, it’s not clear yet whether this is even intended for a sustained mission. The BBC report from Kyiv makes it sound more like an Independence Day thumb in the eye to Russia, and a momentary humiliation for Putin:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky released an Independence Day message on X, formerly known as Twitter, rallying his countrymen to help maintain the country’s independence.
“In this fight, everyone counts. Because the fight is for something that is important to everyone,” Mr Zelensky said.
Independence Day has gained increased significance among Ukrainians since Russia’s invasion started in February 2022, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. It is now the country’s third most important holiday, behind only Easter and Christmas.
The point of this may be just to demonstrate Zelensky’s intent to restore Ukraine’s full pre-2014 sovereignty, full stop, and to raise morale by conducting a raid of opportunity where the Russians might be caught napping. That would be a morale booster for Ukrainians, and those do matter in long, protracted wars. (Consider the value of Doolittle’s raid on Tokyo, which was much more about domestic morale after Pearl Harbor than actual military advances.) A raid might also force Russia to shift its stretched resources to cover more attacks in Crimea — although one might expect Russia to hold off unless more troops land on either side of the peninsula.
Still, Ukraine has begun talking about the post-liberation plan for Crimea already. They clearly want to make sure everyone knows that the push is coming soon, even if it might not be today:
Crimea as Europe’s new tourist hub. The government aims to transform the peninsula into a year-round resort, positioning it as a destination for leisure and recreation. The plan involves the creation of new hotel infrastructure and public spaces under the “Crimea365” brand.
Uniting Crimea with Ukraine, Europe and the world. Integrating the peninsula into the European transportation network TEN-T. The plan includes the construction of four highways, two international-level airports, as well as dismantling of the Crimean Bridge for safe navigation in the Black and Azov seas.
Power industry. Integrating Crimea into the ENTSO-E energy system and promoting renewable energy sources. Plans involve developing the Black Sea gas shelf using cutting-edge technologies, with the government envisioning Crimea as a net energy exporter.
ISW’s latest assessment, prior to the landing, provides some evidence that Ukraine was serious enough about this operation to make strategic attacks just beforehand. Even without the context of an apparently successful landing on the beach, ISW noted that the success of the precursor attack had something to say about Russian operational competency, none of it good:
Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian S-400 air defense system in Crimea on August 23. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) announced and posted footage of a strike on a Russian S-400 long and medium-range anti-aircraft missile system near Olenivka, Crimea (116km northwest of Sevastopol and about 140km south of Kherson City).[48] GUR reported that the strike destroyed an air defense installation, an unspecified number of missiles, and killed nearby Russian military personnel, though the footage only shows part of the installation exploding.[49] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger suggested that Ukrainian forces likely used a Harpoon, Neptune, or Brimstone II missile to strike the air defense system.[50] Russian milbloggers expressed concern that Ukrainian forces were able to operate a drone and record footage of the strike roughly 120km behind the current frontline.[51] A Ukrainian strike on a Russian air defense installation deep within the Russian rear indicates a number of Russian tactical failures, particularly that Russian forces were seemingly unprepared to intercept the missiles with the air defense system or operate electronic warfare jamming to prevent Ukrainian forces from operating a drone in the area. These tactical failures, though surprising and serious, may not be indicative of wider systemic issues within Russian air defenses, however.
How do you think they feel about it now, even if all the landing turns out to be is a hit-and-run raid? These kinds of operations are not just morale-impacters for Ukraine, after all.
I can’t understand that.
I saw a military expert say Russians historically care little gaining land as a goal in a war. Their goal is to slaughter the enemy as much as possible, which they’ve been doing quite successfully
It is not the Russian way, but the proper way of making war.
The NATO doctrines are basically based on German teaching, or to put it correct on what the former Nazis made up about their doctrines.
The fact is that the Nazis lost WWII and so does NATO in every war ever since.
It's called an analogy.
Ukraine has made gains, and immediately some Putin supporters crawl out of the woodwork, demanding that all aid to Ukraine now be stopped. As though there were any logic to that syllogism.
Ukraine isn't protecting America
The Ukrainians are degrading the military strength of what was once America's premier geostrategic foe - and which is still a formidable military power with assets threatening America's heartland. Anything that weakens Russia's military strength is a plus, in my book.
Not in yours, though?
Regards,
bkmk
Excellent comparison. It was a raid, and a good one that embarrasses Putin.
Well done, Ukraine.
I’m glad they did. I’m for the people of Ukraine.
Man, that’s just ignorant. Do you know anything that’s really going on in Ukraine?
Russia trolls know zero and just trade bad jokes.
Ukrainians have raised to the level of graffiti artists.
Germans landed on American soil. Japanese landed on Austrailian soil. Didn’t mean either won the war.
MacGregor believes anything that excuses him from admitting an error. Hence after being vastly wrong, from a couple of weeks in, he pretty much had to go all in with Russian propaganda.
He could have said “well, that parts not going well”. But no, he had to go with “they meant to do that”. And he was trapped.
All for the sake of his amour propre.
That’s the trouble with guys like that.
They are protecting their country. This has nothing to do with US domestic politics.
This was a raid, not D-Day. And the reports said so, a few guys on boats.
Soviet and Russian doctrine was about the same as NATO. Indeed, it was even more focused on deep operations and combined arms.
This was worked out between Marshal Tukhachevskys crew and the German delegations in the 1920s-30s, when they were cooperating on tank design and doctrine.
That enhanced blitzkrieg doctrine was the Soviet standard throughout the Cold War. That’s what the Soviet group of forces in Germany was structured to do.
The Russian army went to an even more extreme doctrine, with combined arms and independent operation down to battalions. Those were the BTGs that entered Ukraine in 2022.
You could see them attempting to implement their doctrine. But they were too incompetent to do it. Imagine Guderian running out of gas two days after crossing the Meuse in May 1940, and German logistics failing to get him any for a week.
I see a problem when an incompetent Westerner, at best a POG type is trying to judge Russian or Ukrainian performance from the high horse.
You are not in the same league military as any of them.
And BTG worked, as contrary to the USMC doctrines employed to dislodge them. The say is that Harkov offensive was a success but they don’t say that the NATO-style “light brigades” suffered four times the casualties than the full strength of the Russian force they managed to force into withdrawal.
The Russian problem was that the BTGs relied on rebel forces for infantry as contrary to professional troops but it is not a doctrinal problem.
Ukrainians are slaughtered en-masse due to faulty NATO doctrines. If Europeans were in their place, the war would have been over long time ago by surrender to the Russians.
So, NoseWanking, do you think a Russian in Russia like yourself is better positioned to judge Russian or Ukrainian performance?
Embarrassment doesn’t win wars. Ukraine is losing—badly. The symbolism of attacks against Moscow and Crimea ring hollow for the Ukrainian people who are being devastated.
You'll drag down the collective intelligence of the group.
You are making unsupported assumptions about casualties and etc. Wait till after the war. Worse, the casualties argument smells of cope, an excuse for an inability to demonstrably win.
In the meantime what is apparent to everyone without counting casualties is loss of equipment and abandonment of territory. Everyone can see where the BTGs were, and where they could have gone.
What we see is the failure to carry out major operational maneuvers. This was the whole point of Russian doctrine. If the Russians had been competent to do that, this war would have been over a year ago. The “kesselschlacht” (which is in Soviet/Russian doctrine) would have pocketed the bulk of the Ukrainian army. And the Russians had that opportunity due to the Ukrainians inability to defend the extremely long border frontage with the small forces available as of 2/2022. The Russians just rolled by Sumy for example. They could easily have gone on from there and taken vital ground, such as the Dneiper bridges or their approaches, or surrounded Kharkiv at least, and forced the Ukrainians onto a crisis. That’s how armies are destroyed.
But the Russians could not keep their BTGs rolling long enough to make a decisive advance.
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