| Transcript |
| 0:00 | · | it's a conflict that has plagued the |
| 0:01 | · | region for Generations rooted in |
| 0:03 | · | territorial disputes historic rivalries |
| 0:05 | · | access to resources and a whole lot more |
| 0:08 | · | time and time again turkey and Greece |
| 0:10 | · | have failed to find solutions to their |
| 0:12 | · | many disagreements and on more than one |
| 0:14 | · | occasion have come close to the brink of |
| 0:15 | · | war with turkey going as far as to |
| 0:18 | · | threat in Athens with missile strikes in |
| 0:20 | · | recent months despite both Nations being |
| 0:22 | · | members of NATO armed confrontation |
| 0:24 | · | seems increasingly as a likely scenario |
| 0:26 | · | and today we're going to dive into the |
| 0:28 | · | cause of this tension and examine the |
| 0:30 | · | possibility of it erupting into Europe's |
| 0:32 | · | next War |
| 0:41 | · | foreign |
| 0:41 | · | [Music] |
| 0:44 | · | the first issue dividing the two Nations |
| 0:46 | · | is a shared history of tension and War |
| 0:48 | · | going back hundreds of years Greece was |
| 0:50 | · | occupied by the Ottoman Empire in the |
| 0:52 | · | 15th century and was kept under their |
| 0:53 | · | rule for more than 400 years finally in |
| 0:56 | · | the early 1800s Greece rose up in a |
| 0:59 | · | nationwide Revolution which later became |
| 1:01 | · | known as the Greek war of independence |
| 1:03 | · | 150 000 people lost their lives in the |
| 1:05 | · | bloody Revolt but Greece emerged |
| 1:07 | · | Victorious and succeeded in regaining |
| 1:09 | · | its sovereignty The Next Century saw |
| 1:11 | · | several more skirmishes and wars fought |
| 1:12 | · | between the two such as the |
| 1:14 | · | greco-turkish war of 1897 the Balkan |
| 1:16 | · | Wars World War One and the greco-turkish |
| 1:18 | · | war of |
| 1:19 | · | 1919-1922. long story short each of |
| 1:22 | · | these wars resulted in one nation taking |
| 1:24 | · | or losing a little bit of territory |
| 1:27 | · | usually claimed by either side to be |
| 1:29 | · | rightfully there during this time the |
| 1:31 | · | Ottoman Empire initiated the systematic |
| 1:34 | · | killing of Christian ottoman Greeks |
| 1:36 | · | killing at least three hundred thousand |
| 1:38 | · | and causing many more to flee the nation |
| 1:40 | · | the Greek genocide has struggled to gain |
| 1:42 | · | recognition to this day and is denied by |
| 1:45 | · | many and modern turkey further |
| 1:47 | · | exacerbating the subject but then came |
| 1:49 | · | the Cold War when despite the intense |
| 1:52 | · | animosity between the two Greece and |
| 1:54 | · | Turkey were supposed to be allies Greece |
| 1:56 | · | was a founding member of NATO with |
| 1:58 | · | turkey joining in 1952 and so despite |
| 2:01 | · | their differences they were expected to |
| 2:04 | · | unite against the common threat of |
| 2:05 | · | Communism and the Soviet Union but this |
| 2:08 | · | didn't exactly work out like everyone |
| 2:10 | · | hoped it would largely thanks to a |
| 2:12 | · | little bit of a disagreement about |
| 2:14 | · | Cyprus Cyprus is an Island located in |
| 2:16 | · | the eastern Mediterranean right |
| 2:18 | · | underneath turkey the former British |
| 2:19 | · | colony had gained independence in 1960 |
| 2:21 | · | and set up its own government but |
| 2:23 | · | because 77 of its population was Greek |
| 2:25 | · | and the remained are almost all Turk |
| 2:27 | · | trouble was right around the corner as |
| 2:29 | · | each side vied for political control of |
| 2:31 | · | the strategically located Island in 1964 |
| 2:34 | · | turkey threatened Cyprus with an |
| 2:36 | · | invasion only called off when the United |
| 2:38 | · | States threatened repercussions Greece |
| 2:40 | · | continued to wish for Cyprus to be |
| 2:42 | · | reunited with the mother and attempted |
| 2:45 | · | to force this with the coup d'etat in |
| 2:47 | · | 1974 in which Greek cypriots took |
| 2:49 | · | control of the government with the help |
| 2:51 | · | of the Greek dictator turkey responded |
| 2:53 | · | by invading the northern half of the |
| 2:55 | · | island and by the time everything cooled |
| 2:57 | · | down turkey had occupied a significant |
| 2:59 | · | portion of Northern Cyprus since then |
| 3:01 | · | the island has been roughly split into |
| 3:04 | · | the southern end is still the Republic |
| 3:06 | · | of Cyprus the original nation and even a |
| 3:09 | · | member of the European Union separated |
| 3:11 | · | from the south by a U.N buffer zone the |
| 3:13 | · | northern portion is known as the Turkish |
| 3:15 | · | Republic of Northern Cyprus a country |
| 3:17 | · | recognized by only turkey the situation |
| 3:20 | · | has remained Frozen ever since and the |
| 3:22 | · | Cyprus issues continue to divide Greece |
| 3:25 | · | and Turkey and drive tension and |
| 3:28 | · | disagreement however Cyprus is far from |
| 3:30 | · | the only Island causing conflict in the |
| 3:32 | · | 21st century |
| 3:33 | · | [Music] |
| 3:38 | · | it would be a bit of an understatement |
| 3:40 | · | to say that the Aegean Sea is full of |
| 3:43 | · | Greek Islands Greece has more than 200 |
| 3:46 | · | islands in the area but Greek ownership |
| 3:48 | · | of some is disputed by turkey one |
| 3:51 | · | example of this are the islands of Emir |
| 3:53 | · | or kardak as they're known in Turkish |
| 3:56 | · | these are uninhabited but their location |
| 3:58 | · | is so close to the Turkish Mainland that |
| 4:00 | · | this makes Ankara nervous they are one |
| 4:03 | · | of several islets that despite being |
| 4:05 | · | claimed entirely by Greece are regarded |
| 4:07 | · | as gray zones by turkey and this only |
| 4:10 | · | scratches the surface of the issue aside |
| 4:13 | · | from some islands being outright claimed |
| 4:15 | · | by turkey there is also the issue of |
| 4:17 | · | Greece's territorial Waters and |
| 4:19 | · | exclusive economic zones according to |
| 4:21 | · | the United Nations convention on the law |
| 4:23 | · | of the sea each Nation currently has the |
| 4:26 | · | right to extend their territorial waters |
| 4:28 | · | 12 nautical miles from their Coastline |
| 4:30 | · | specified in this agreement are the |
| 4:32 | · | Waters of an archipelago in which it is |
| 4:35 | · | stated that Nations have the right to |
| 4:36 | · | extend such territorial Waters from |
| 4:39 | · | their outermost Islands that's important |
| 4:41 | · | to note here that turkey is not |
| 4:43 | · | signature to this agreement and |
| 4:45 | · | therefore isn't technically Bound by its |
| 4:47 | · | laws but Greece argues that they should |
| 4:50 | · | follow them regardless as his customary |
| 4:53 | · | currently Greece claims six nautical |
| 4:55 | · | miles off of each island and asserts its |
| 4:57 | · | right to one day extend this to the |
| 4:58 | · | allowed 12. the likely reason they've |
| 5:00 | · | yet to do this is because turkey has |
| 5:02 | · | stated that if Greece accepts the 12 |
| 5:04 | · | nautical mile limit they will resort to |
| 5:05 | · | military action turkey also resents the |
| 5:08 | · | use of islands as an extension of |
| 5:09 | · | territorial Waters and with prefer it if |
| 5:11 | · | Greece's six nautical miles only |
| 5:13 | · | extended from the mainland now looking |
| 5:15 | · | at this from a neutral perspective |
| 5:17 | · | Greece believes that they have the right |
| 5:19 | · | to much of the Aegean Sea because they |
| 5:21 | · | control most of the islands within it |
| 5:23 | · | and believe that turkey wants to |
| 5:25 | · | unfairly take half of this granting |
| 5:27 | · | turkey half of the Aegean would also |
| 5:30 | · | isolate many Greek Islands in Foreign |
| 5:32 | · | Waters leaving them sitting darks if |
| 5:34 | · | turkey ever feels like taking them on |
| 5:36 | · | the Turkish side they view it as unfair |
| 5:37 | · | that Greece's Terror territorial waters |
| 5:39 | · | are allowed to extend so far now this is |
| 5:42 | · | a fairly big issue for turkey because |
| 5:43 | · | Greece has many islands that are located |
| 5:45 | · | very close to the Turkish Coast severely |
| 5:48 | · | limiting turkey space in the sea this is |
| 5:50 | · | especially frustrating when many of the |
| 5:51 | · | islands are uninhabited the issue of |
| 5:53 | · | territorial Waters has only grown more |
| 5:55 | · | intense as juicy reserves of resources |
| 5:57 | · | like natural gas and oil have been |
| 5:58 | · | discovered under the seabed in 2019 |
| 6:00 | · | turkey made a surprise deal with Libya |
| 6:02 | · | splitting up much of the Aegean for |
| 6:04 | · | their own exclusive economic zones |
| 6:06 | · | hoping to cash in on all of the oil |
| 6:08 | · | drilling potential the boundaries drawn |
| 6:10 | · | up in the deal not only ignored many of |
| 6:12 | · | Greece's smaller islets but also huge |
| 6:14 | · | islands like Crete and was therefore |
| 6:16 | · | condemned by the International Community |
| 6:18 | · | in response Greece went ahead and signed |
| 6:20 | · | a maritime deal with Italy and another |
| 6:21 | · | one with Egypt which was referred to by |
| 6:23 | · | the Turkish president erdogan as useless |
| 6:26 | · | later in 2019 erdogan was photographed |
| 6:29 | · | next to a map of Turkey showing half of |
| 6:31 | · | the Aegean Seas Turkish Waters with the |
| 6:33 | · | big title turkey's blue Homeland and |
| 6:37 | · | well tensions have a me risen since then |
| 6:45 | · | so the most concerning part of the |
| 6:47 | · | conflict between turkey and Greece isn't |
| 6:50 | · | the dispute over water or uninhabited |
| 6:52 | · | islands rather it's about the dangerous |
| 6:54 | · | games that are being played by each side |
| 6:56 | · | which have led to the deaths of many |
| 6:58 | · | Pilots turkey refuses to acknowledge |
| 7:01 | · | much of Greece's airspace similar to the |
| 7:02 | · | way they reject Greek claims their |
| 7:04 | · | territorial Waters and a regularly |
| 7:06 | · | violate this airspace with fighter jet |
| 7:08 | · | flyovers normally these violations are |
| 7:10 | · | performed by Turkish f-16s and f4s which |
| 7:13 | · | are routinely intercepted by Greek f-16s |
| 7:15 | · | or Mirage 2000s this type of |
| 7:17 | · | interception happens all the time around |
| 7:19 | · | the world I mean look no further than |
| 7:20 | · | Russian aircraft trying their luck near |
| 7:23 | · | Alaska but the Aegean air disputes are |
| 7:26 | · | unique because the two sides actively |
| 7:28 | · | engage in dogfights with each other |
| 7:29 | · | obviously because they aren't or they |
| 7:32 | · | don't actually shoot at each other but |
| 7:33 | · | they do pull off dangerous Maneuvers to |
| 7:36 | · | scare the enemy pilot and will even do |
| 7:38 | · | so at dangerously low altitudes in 1992 |
| 7:41 | · | a Greek fighter was dogfighting two |
| 7:43 | · | Turkish Fighters and ended up crashing |
| 7:44 | · | into the engine in killing the pilot in |
| 7:46 | · | 1995 two different Turkish Fighters |
| 7:48 | · | crashed into the sea resulting in the |
| 7:50 | · | deaths of one of the pilots just a year |
| 7:52 | · | later after a long dog fight between |
| 7:54 | · | four fighter jets one of the Greek Jets |
| 7:56 | · | reportedly downed its Turkish opponent |
| 7:58 | · | with an air-to-air missile which killed |
| 7:59 | · | the pilot but allowed the co-pilot to |
| 8:01 | · | eject this has never been confirmed but |
| 8:04 | · | it's pretty clear that Greece's claim of |
| 8:06 | · | mechanical failure isn't enough to |
| 8:09 | · | explain the situation later in 2006 the |
| 8:12 | · | dueling Jets crashed directly into each |
| 8:14 | · | other turkey also regularly sends |
| 8:16 | · | fighters to harass helicopters or jets |
| 8:18 | · | carrying Greek government personnel and |
| 8:20 | · | have done their best to intimidate the |
| 8:21 | · | Prime Minister on several occasions this |
| 8:24 | · | is especially scary because a single |
| 8:27 | · | tragic mistake in one of these |
| 8:28 | · | situations could quickly escalate into |
| 8:31 | · | war if an important figure were to be |
| 8:33 | · | harmed or even possibly killed the |
| 8:36 | · | flyovers originally stuck to the |
| 8:38 | · | so-called gray zones but over the years |
| 8:40 | · | they become Bolder and Bolder in their |
| 8:42 | · | trips the 2010s were the first time they |
| 8:45 | · | flew over the island of Rhodes and in |
| 8:46 | · | 2020 they even Flew Over the Greek |
| 8:48 | · | mainland for the first time sparking |
| 8:50 | · | outrage |
| 8:54 | · | thank you |
| 8:56 | · | so looking at all of this it might seem |
| 8:58 | · | like war is ready to break out at any |
| 9:01 | · | moment and on a few occasions it almost |
| 9:03 | · | has military buildups have had the world |
| 9:05 | · | holding their breath several times in |
| 9:07 | · | the last few decades in 1996 Greek |
| 9:09 | · | Special Forces landed on the Emir islets |
| 9:12 | · | which if you remember was one of those |
| 9:13 | · | gray areas that turkey sort of claims |
| 9:16 | · | turkey also holds that many of these |
| 9:18 | · | islands need to be demilitarized because |
| 9:20 | · | of their proximity so when the alarm was |
| 9:22 | · | sounded the Greek forces were on Emir |
| 9:24 | · | turkey moved to respond Turkish armored |
| 9:26 | · | units moved to the buffer zone in Cyprus |
| 9:28 | · | and the cypriot National Guard was ready |
| 9:30 | · | for combat the Greek seals confirmed |
| 9:32 | · | that Turkish forces had arrived at their |
| 9:34 | · | location and just when it seemed like |
| 9:36 | · | the tension would burst frantic |
| 9:38 | · | negotiations with the United States as a |
| 9:40 | · | mediator saw the two agree to withdraw |
| 9:42 | · | their forces however the helicopter that |
| 9:44 | · | was sent to pick up the seals did not |
| 9:46 | · | make it home crashing into the sea |
| 9:48 | · | killing three on board many speculate |
| 9:50 | · | the helicopter was actually shot down by |
| 9:52 | · | a Turkish ship acting on their own |
| 9:54 | · | accord but was covered up by both sides |
| 9:57 | · | to avoid escalation there isn't much |
| 9:59 | · | evidence to back that up though and it's |
| 10:02 | · | not like either side hasn't had their |
| 10:03 | · | fair share of crashing aircraft into the |
| 10:05 | · | sea now one of the most notable threats |
| 10:07 | · | from the whole ordeal came in December |
| 10:10 | · | 2022 when erdogan directly threatened |
| 10:12 | · | the Greek Capital noticing that Greece |
| 10:14 | · | was aiming to purchase new military |
| 10:16 | · | equipment from the United States he |
| 10:17 | · | stated if you don't stay calm if you try |
| 10:20 | · | to buy something from here and there |
| 10:22 | · | from America to the islands a country |
| 10:24 | · | like turkey will not be a bystander it |
| 10:27 | · | has to do something now we have started |
| 10:29 | · | to make our own missiles of course this |
| 10:31 | · | production scares the Greeks when you |
| 10:33 | · | say Typhon the Greeks get scared and say |
| 10:36 | · | it will hit Athens well of course it |
| 10:39 | · | will and this is far from the only |
| 10:42 | · | recent threat erdogan maintains that |
| 10:45 | · | Greece is militarizing its many islands |
| 10:47 | · | and in effect militarizing the Aegean |
| 10:49 | · | and says that if Athens continues to |
| 10:51 | · | push its Lark turkey is prepared to |
| 10:53 | · | launch an offensive at a moment's notice |
| 10:54 | · | so what would happen if the two |
| 10:56 | · | countries actually did go to war well |
| 10:59 | · | first let's take a look at how each side |
| 11:01 | · | Stacks up militarily on the global power |
| 11:03 | · | index Greece ranks at number 30 with 130 |
| 11:06 | · | 000 active personnel and 220 000 Reserve |
| 11:09 | · | Personnel turkey takes the advantage |
| 11:11 | · | here with the Global Firepower rank of |
| 11:13 | · | 11 with 425 active personnel and 200 000 |
| 11:16 | · | Reserve in the app turkey has almost |
| 11:18 | · | twice the amount of total aircraft that |
| 11:19 | · | Greece has including transport training |
| 11:21 | · | and reconnaissance planes and has about |
| 11:23 | · | twice as many helicopters with nearly |
| 11:25 | · | 500. however the two have almost equal |
| 11:27 | · | number of fighter jets write around 200 |
| 11:29 | · | each the Navies are similar in strength |
| 11:31 | · | with neither side having a major |
| 11:33 | · | advantage as they have similar numbers |
| 11:34 | · | of frigates Patrol vessels and |
| 11:36 | · | submarines and neither one has any |
| 11:38 | · | aircraft carriers as for land operations |
| 11:40 | · | the front lines for such battles would |
| 11:42 | · | take place in Thrace where turkey meets |
| 11:44 | · | Continental Europe as well as on Cyprus |
| 11:46 | · | in almost any Land Battle turkey will be |
| 11:49 | · | at an advantage with a significantly |
| 11:50 | · | higher number of Tanks self-propelled |
| 11:52 | · | artillery and armored vehicles overall |
| 11:55 | · | turkey possesses is a clear Advantage |
| 11:58 | · | militarily but it's unlikely that an |
| 12:00 | · | Aegean War would be a strict one-on-one |
| 12:02 | · | brawl between the two sides with both |
| 12:04 | · | members of NATO the defensive Alliance |
| 12:06 | · | would be thrown into completely |
| 12:08 | · | Uncharted Territory on how to respond |
| 12:09 | · | and there are many different options |
| 12:11 | · | here for example if NATO determines that |
| 12:13 | · | turkey was the Undisputed aggressor it |
| 12:16 | · | is possible that NATO would intervene to |
| 12:17 | · | defend Greek territory this would mean |
| 12:19 | · | that within just a few weeks turkey |
| 12:21 | · | could face crippling airstrikes from |
| 12:22 | · | American stealth bombers and have their |
| 12:24 | · | entire military crumble into a |
| 12:26 | · | logistical nightmare as the full force |
| 12:28 | · | of the alliance shows up however if the |
| 12:30 | · | cause isn't quite so clear NATO may not |
| 12:33 | · | be able to choose a side and may Instead |
| 12:34 | · | try and enforce a ceasefire another very |
| 12:36 | · | possible outcome is that NATO recognizes |
| 12:38 | · | turkey as the sole aggressor but |
| 12:40 | · | hesitates to intervene out of fear of |
| 12:42 | · | losing turkey from the alliance as it |
| 12:44 | · | stands turkey is one of the most |
| 12:45 | · | powerful forces in all of NATO and on |
| 12:48 | · | top of its military power it also has an |
| 12:50 | · | unmatched geographic location on the |
| 12:51 | · | boss for a straight effectively giving |
| 12:53 | · | NATO control over the entrance to the |
| 12:55 | · | Black Sea and severely Russia's Naval |
| 12:57 | · | capabilities with this in mind if the |
| 12:59 | · | war between turkey and Greece doesn't |
| 13:01 | · | appear to be too serious NATO may choose |
| 13:03 | · | to appease turkey instead as the |
| 13:05 | · | alternative solution might not be worth |
| 13:07 | · | losing a strategic partner however from |
| 13:11 | · | another perspective NATO May stand |
| 13:13 | · | defiant on the side of Greece as turkey |
| 13:15 | · | despite its importance is also among the |
| 13:17 | · | most problematic members and is |
| 13:18 | · | currently blocking Sweden's request to |
| 13:20 | · | join a 21st century greco-turkish War |
| 13:22 | · | May simply mean the bend of turkey's |
| 13:25 | · | membership in NATO and would certainly |
| 13:27 | · | be the end of their Ambitions to join |
| 13:29 | · | the European Union but these |
| 13:31 | · | consequences may not be enough to deter |
| 13:34 | · | erdogan from starting a war highly |
| 13:37 | · | nationalist ideology has been pushed by |
| 13:39 | · | him for years now especially around |
| 13:42 | · | election times and heated nationalism |
| 13:44 | · | has always been known to push aside |
| 13:46 | · | logic and long-term planning this is |
| 13:48 | · | especially dangerous when combined with |
| 13:50 | · | turkey's clear advantage in a hotel |
| 13:53 | · | fight with erdogan's rhetoric of calling |
| 13:55 | · | the United States more of an opponent |
| 13:57 | · | and less of an ally he may see the loss |
| 14:00 | · | of the alliance as heartbreaking but a |
| 14:02 | · | necessary step towards increased Turkish |
| 14:04 | · | security though it's important to note |
| 14:05 | · | that the majority of both Turks and |
| 14:07 | · | Greeks hold no personal resentment |
| 14:08 | · | toward the other side there is |
| 14:09 | · | legitimate palpable tension even among |
| 14:12 | · | the general population some reporters |
| 14:13 | · | have likened the rhetoric in current |
| 14:15 | · | Turkish media to the way American Media |
| 14:17 | · | talked about Iraq in the early 2000s |
| 14:19 | · | calling it a threat to Security in the |
| 14:21 | · | region and viewing it as an inferior |
| 14:22 | · | opponent in the same way that the United |
| 14:24 | · | States was so confident that war in Iraq |
| 14:26 | · | would be Swift and decisive there is a |
| 14:28 | · | general perception in Turkish media that |
| 14:30 | · | war with Greece would be lopsided and |
| 14:32 | · | quick but if there's anything we've |
| 14:34 | · | recently learned about large-scale |
| 14:36 | · | conventional wars in the 21st century |
| 14:37 | · | there anything but quick and easy a war |
| 14:40 | · | over the Aegean Sea would certainly lead |
| 14:42 | · | to the deaths of thousands and |
| 14:44 | · | irreparably damage international |
| 14:45 | · | relations and with the clear potential |
| 14:47 | · | for the conflict to pull in allies on |
| 14:49 | · | both sides it's really for the best that |
| 14:51 | · | the conflict in The Aegean remains |
| 14:53 | · | purely rhetorical |
