Posted on 07/27/2023 8:29:03 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The Harvard/Harris polls are substantial outliers. This could mean that their methodology is substantially better, worse, or they have been having a bad run of luck when it comes to sampling.
Or, of course, they could be trying to lie to you.
But they sure don’t look similar to other polls out there.
2) First, the poll has a basic methodology issue:
Matching panelists to the voter file is expensive, which is why most public polls don’t.
Penn uses an unverified panel. Fine in corporate market research, but doesn’t work for politics where a point can make a difference.
pic.twitter.com/ldf4hNzKyt— Chris Wilson (@WilsonWPA) July 26, 2023
Before I go on, you should know this analysis comes from the Chief Data Analyst for Never Back Down, the super PAC supporting Ron DeSantis for the Republican nomination. Make of that what you will. I think his analysis is spot on, and the reason I do is not that I support DeSantis, but because the Harris polls are almost 10 points different from others.
That is a margin-of-error difference. It is because the poll is flawed.
When everybody else has Biden up between 2 and 5 points, a Harris poll showing Trump up by 4 or 5 points seems…implausible.
Comforting to Republicans who want Trump, and of course to Democrats who desperately want to face Trump in the general election. But not so comforting to people who want to know what is actually happening in the race for president.
You know, people who follow polls.
So what is behind the numbers? Why is Trump doing so well in Harris’ polls? Obviously he has to have SOMETHING backing up his numbers, right?
4) Hillary’s pollster would have us believe that Trump and Biden are tied with Gen Z voters.
Does anyone really believe this?
Biden won this Gen Z by nearly 30 points in 2020.
pic.twitter.com/WpwvvHgkPH— Chris Wilson (@WilsonWPA) July 26, 2023
Harris wants us to believe that there has been a swing toward Trump among women of 13 points since the last election. Does that seem plausible?
Is it Trump’s good looks? His smooth charm with the ladies? A secret desire to have a corpulent loudmouth grab them in their nether regions?
What, exactly, explains this swing? Last I checked most women found Trump unbearable at a pre-rational level.
Granted, Joe Biden is creepy as hell. But that is a known quantity. As is his total inability to appear sentient. But it’s not like the MSM has been pointing this out, and Fox News viewers weren’t fans of Biden in 2020 either.
So it seems on its face implausible, especially since such a large swing toward Trump isn’t being picked up in other polls.
Similarly with Gen Z. Every poll I have seen is that Gen Z is filled with a bunch of censorship-loving zealots who think communism sounds kinda cool. As I wrote yesterday, Gen Zers pretty much hate America, so making it great again is probably not a slogan to swing these voters toward Trump by 30 points.
30 points. Do they think Trump is going to mandate communism, shut down coal plants, and provide reparations?
6) Hillary’s pollster would have you believe that Trump has doubled his support among Blacks since 2020 and that Biden is at just 59% with Blacks.
For context: Democrats typically win Blacks by ~80 points.
pic.twitter.com/uxoeFlrjSq— Chris Wilson (@WilsonWPA) July 26, 2023
Speaking of reparations, does it seem plausible that Trump has doubled his support among Blacks?
Sure, Blacks aren’t exactly on board with the whole woke transing of every kid in sight, but they have also been the most reliable Democrat voting bloc there is. Do you really think Biden’s support has collapsed? Remember, Biden’s campaign was saved from certain death by Blacks in South Carolina.
Independents, perhaps, might be more disenchanted with Biden than before. So I call that a wash. Maybe, maybe not. But given how awful this poll is all the data should be ignored.
8) Let’s visit the suburbs.
Biden won the suburban vote by 2 in 2020. This shows a 15-point shift in Trump’s favor since then.
Can anyone honestly point to something Trump has done to help himself (+17) in the suburbs these last 3 years?
pic.twitter.com/BmsLEqeKIN— Chris Wilson (@WilsonWPA) July 26, 2023
The trashiness of this poll is obvious in all these numbers, which shows that Trump has suddenly increased his support by double digits in almost every demographic since 2020. Is that your experience?
Given that Trump is under 60% in the nomination polls with REPUBLICANS, indicating that many of them would prefer a different candidate, it seems odd to imagine that outside the party there has been a dramatic movement toward Trump in the electorate.
We can only speculate about why Harris is so off in its numbers–and Harvard with them–but we all have a good idea of the answer.
Hillary Clinton’s old pollster, Mark Penn, is putting his thumb on the scale for Trump, and using Harvard’s credibility to boost his own.
One last thing: Harvard/Harris and the Harris poll itself are included in the RealClearPolitics average that so many people rely upon to get a picture of the race. They have a huge impact, by proving two data points that are wildly wrong in Trump’s favor. Without those polls, the average Trump numbers would look terrible. With them, the race looks tied.
That is a big deal.
It doesn’t matter - ballot-harvesting brings in a number of votes for the Democrats that aren’t reflected in any polls, since ballot-harvesting is entirely uncontested by Republicans. Until and unless Republicans meaningfully compete in ballot-harvesting, there is a significant vote-bank for Democrats that is unaccounted for in any poll.
Funny how various Dem polls deliver bad news for the Right again and again?
Hillary would have decisively beaten Trump in 2016 if any of them were genuine.
From a Politico article on Dem pollsters errors in 2020:
The five Democratic firms that signed onto the memo are ALG Research, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, GBAO Strategies, Global Strategy Group and Normington Petts. Together, they are five of the top six polling firms working for the Democratic Party apparatus, along with Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, according to financial disclosure reports. ALG Research was Biden’s lead pollster in last year’s election.
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I would contend they could add the unpaid ABC,NBC,CBS,MSNBC,USA Today, Marist, NPR,PBS and others who are rooting for the Dems.
When I tell Only Trumpers that he’ll likely lose to Biden they point to this poll. Mike Gallagher cites this poll.
This is like what happened in the 2012 Missouri Senate race. Everyone was urging Todd Akin to drop out after his infamous “legitimate rape” remark. Suddenly a poll came out showing him well ahead of McCaskill. He announced he was staying in, citing that poll. He lost by a landslide.
If people are voting for Trump because of this poll they are idiots like Akin.
You didn't read the article carefully. The Harvard Harris poll which keeps showing Trump ahead of Biden contrary to every other poll, is run by a Democrat Mark Penn.
It's common sense. Just go to a suburb of any large city and ask them what do they think of Donald Trump. And that's your answer right there.
Thanks. You’re right, of course.
I was speaking in general about polls, not just this one. Such as recent ones that Biden is gaining admiration the past two months and would beat Trump.
Read later.
Biden will crush the orange man like a cockroach in 2024. Any Democrat running against Trump in 2024 could become the first Democrat in 6 decades to cross 400 electoral votes.
I agree that polls generally are trying to help Democrats. Showing Biden doing better vs Trump than he really is doesn’t help Biden at this stage of the game.
Notice what they are not talking about:
What is the polling of DeSantis vs. Biden.
Any poll that has Biden in it is absurd, since Newsom is the candidate.
It doesn’t matter what lies and fake stuff the desantis campaign puts out, in hopes desantis has a chance at being the republican presidential candidate.
At the rate he’s going, desantis will drop out before or at the first primaries.
The DeathSpiral campaign is doing worse than Trump in the Harvard Harris poll.
Is this poll supposed to be boosting Trump, but biased against DeSantis ?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general_election_desantis_vs_biden-7967.html
It’s fascinating how nobody believes that Harris would have a chance for the nomination if Biden dropped out. One big reason is that the Democrat party is largely run by billionaires. They don’t want Harris. I wonder if Harris would even bother running.
You mean in this poll? I believe it shows DeSantis doing worse than Trump vs Biden. That’s exactly what we would expect if we assume this poll is intended to help Trump get the nomination.
” I wonder if Harris would even bother running.”
If Biden resigns or leaves office Harris will become POTUS and fill out the term..She will be persuaded to not run for a full term in 2024 by Obama and Willie Davis. She will become a university, foundation or think tank president.
A Supreme Court opening in the next 2-3 months would be the perfect situation. Harris can be appointed to the court and confirmed by the Democrat majority Senate with Romney, Collins and Murkowski adding extra margin to the vote. Newsom is nominated by Biden to fill the VP job. The Senate will confirm Newsom with the Dem majority and a few Republicans. In the House the Dems will vote as a block for Newsom joined by the necessary five Republicans to make a majority.
Once Newsom becomes VP. Biden can resign, die or simply drop out of the race and endorse Newsom. Under the last scenario, or a resignation, Biden can pardon himself, Hunter and brother Jim on his last day in office.
Newsom is already running, making personal appearances across the country. Harris has to be sidelined. This all has to play out over the next few months.
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