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Against all odds, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is inching forward
Jerusalem Post ^ | July 15, 2023 | Jonathan Spyer

Posted on 07/16/2023 8:41:26 AM PDT by devere

...In early July, I set off eastward from Odesa to the Donbas, with the intention of taking a close look at this third phase of the war. I spent time with infantry, armored and artillery units in the frontline areas, and with various support elements. I concentrated mainly on the Bakhmut front, where the Ukrainians are currently making slow and grinding progress, reversing Russia’s declaration of the full conquest of the town on May 20.

Overall, as has been widely reported, the current counteroffensive has failed to make the rapid progress that Ukrainians and Western observers had hoped for.

So far, there have been no large-scale breaches of the Russian lines by Ukrainian armor, followed by a rush to deepen and widen the gap. Instead, artillery duels are taking place along the 1,200 km. frontline, with small and incremental gains recorded by the Ukrainians...

Despite the largely static nature of the fronts, this is a war that the Ukrainians at present appear to be winning. The latest figures suggest that Kyiv’s forces, using modern Western equipment and methods, have destroyed four times as many Russian howitzers as they have themselves lost...

Barring a major shift in this picture in the remaining two months or so that are available before the autumn rains begin, the prospect appears to be for an ongoing, grinding, war of attrition in eastern Ukraine.

For Ilya, Oleksandr, Oleg, and thousands like them – mobilized civilians crewing one of the most combat-hardened forces now in existence anywhere – it seems that it will still be a long fight ahead.

(Excerpt) Read more at jpost.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Ukraine
KEYWORDS: againstallodds; ithoughtrussiawon; jonathanspyer; thelatestfigures; ukraine; war
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To: Rockingham
At the strategic level, the conflict has increasingly tilted against Russia with the recent accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, Turkey's alignment against Russia, and the failure of the NATO alliance's support for Ukraine to crack.

This analysis is neither accurate nor complete. It turns on the hinge of NATO / not NATO and there is a whole lot more in heaven and earth than just an old tired Eurosclerotic bureaucracy. Also it is appearing that that which failed to crack is now cracking. Gloriously. Turkey and Findland for instance.

41 posted on 07/16/2023 10:15:35 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: PIF

Looks like you need to choose the propaganda you WANT to believe.

How many Trillion will it take the Ukraine to “win”? Define a win and how it helps America?”

P.S. - China


42 posted on 07/16/2023 10:15:36 AM PDT by LeonardFMason
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To: Sacajaweau

not true

Ukrainains are of Jewish, Greek and Viking ancestry and a much older nation than Muskovy, who are Slavs


43 posted on 07/16/2023 10:18:40 AM PDT by Sunsong
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To: Rockingham

Putin is one rat that I wouldn’t want to back into a corner. It’s probably better that he die than see no graceful exit from the war.


44 posted on 07/16/2023 10:19:33 AM PDT by gundog (It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. )
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To: devere

Ukraine was *supposed* to be easily defeated in a couple of weeks. They are defeating putin now. russia is a mess


45 posted on 07/16/2023 10:21:16 AM PDT by Sunsong
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To: Rockingham

The war will grind on for months now. It will not end until some new crisis interrupts the timeline. A new war or revolt that will take the focus off of Ukraine. Maybe France will go into revolution? Iran invades Iraq? China invades Vietnam? Civil War in Canada or Mexico? In time this war will end with a whimper and not a bang.


46 posted on 07/16/2023 10:31:37 AM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade ( Ride to the sound of the Guns!)
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To: devere

The Inching Forward is a feint

The actual offensive is directed toward the Russian supply lines and pitifully weak logistics. The Russian army relies on the railroads for supply. There are but two main railroads. They are receiving repeated damage.

Further and as, if not more important, the supplies must be off loaded. The dumps are being systematically destroyed. The soldiers in the trenches are increasingly left with nothing to fight with if they can fight on empty bellies

Meanwhile, the Russian command structure is in serious and actually unknown turmoil


47 posted on 07/16/2023 10:41:02 AM PDT by bert ( (KWE. NP. N.C. +12) Joe Biden is a kleptocrat)
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To: PIF

Ukraine and Europe are still waiting on the US to give the OK for pilot training on F-16 simulators. Any planes will not arrive until next Spring at the earliest. Far too late to help this offensive.


but you said the problem is minefields, which air does not help with

What Ukraine is doing is the exact USA / NATO tactics for a breach operation. The same tactics using the same engineering vehicles - and they are getting slaughtered.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oI0Vprf7FBo

The 47th Brigade is the closest to a NATO force. All new recruits, trained by NATO, ideological nationalists from West Ukraine. Bradleys and Leopards.

They have been attacking South from Orikhiv, and they have the worst losses of any of the Brigades.

What is being exploded in the Russian minefields is the myth of USA NATO military superiority.


48 posted on 07/16/2023 10:45:04 AM PDT by Reverend Wright ( Everything touched by progressives, dies !)
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To: crz

the homozation

of the earth

destruction

reminds me

of the Japanese

attacking

Manchuria - China

Hillary in f 16’s

The Last Emporer


49 posted on 07/16/2023 11:10:12 AM PDT by Firehath
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To: devere
Inching forward? It's been six weeks and the Ukrainians haven't reached the FIRST line of Russian defense.

You neocons are delusional and a joke to anyone that is following what is going on rather than listening to or repeating propaganda.

The only ground "gained" is grey zones, which are set up as kill zones by the Russians.

50 posted on 07/16/2023 11:15:02 AM PDT by Kazan
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To: bert

wishing oasis well

pretty picture reflections

mirage quicksand


51 posted on 07/16/2023 11:16:01 AM PDT by Firehath
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To: Forward the Light Brigade
I think that if Ukraine takes out the mainland roads and the Kerch bridge to Crimea that Russia's ability to sustain its forces there will falter. That would prompt a major crisis for Russia's war effort. I surmise that much of Ukraine's strategy aims to weaken Russia's front lines before delivering such a blow at a moment of Ukraine's choosing. The result may then be a collapse of Russia's defensive lines that permits a general Ukrainian advance.
52 posted on 07/16/2023 11:17:23 AM PDT by Rockingham
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To: gundog

That is true, but Putin’s desire to continue to live in luxury and security is a lever than can be used to broker a cease fire or even a peace deal. By way of precedent, the Napoleonic wars ended not with Napoleon dead but alive in exile after he signed a final and definitive peace treaty and was packed off to the remote British possession of St. Helena. This helped to support the legitimacy of the settlement imposed on France and led to a long era of peace that gradually aligned the two former adversaries (France and Britain) as close allies.


53 posted on 07/16/2023 11:29:27 AM PDT by Rockingham
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To: tlozo
Western Ukraine / Eastern Poland, all carrying out OUR foreign policy based on ancient ethnic or tribal hatreds that most Americans do not share.

Right, 40+ countries are arming Ukraine because of "ethnic hatreds" and not because Putin has gone rogue, breaking numerous treaties by invading and annexing a neighboring countries territory.

Our nation must not be the Globalist Police.   40+ countries arming Ukraine are in it for what they can get out of it, not from any altruistic moral urges.

Come to think of it, the Zelensky Skiddy-mer-rink-a-dink-a- dink, skiddy-mer-rink-a-doo family has gotten filthy rich on the lucre from this manufactured conflict.

54 posted on 07/16/2023 11:30:59 AM PDT by higgmeister (In the Shadow of The Big Chicken!)
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To: AndyJackson

Not really. NATO has been reinvigorated by the Russian attack on Ukraine, which has demonstrated that NATO remains necessary.


55 posted on 07/16/2023 11:31:37 AM PDT by Rockingham
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To: EEGator
Junk article - chock full of propaganda rhetoric. It waits until the second to last paragraph to admit that the summer offensive has failed.

Barring a major shift in this picture in the remaining two months or so that are available before the autumn rains begin, the prospect appears to be for an ongoing, grinding, war of attrition in eastern Ukraine.

56 posted on 07/16/2023 11:47:39 AM PDT by 13foxtrot
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To: 13foxtrot

I know. When the NYT Times admits a Democrat action is failing, you’re done.
It’s been over. All that’s occurring is more men dying for no reason.


57 posted on 07/16/2023 11:52:43 AM PDT by EEGator
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To: Reverend Wright

You fail to understand Western Combined Arms Maneuver - it cannot be done correctly without air.

Air preforms SEAD and other missions making it possible for the ground troops and vehicles to breach.

Cluster munitions destroy the enemy trenches and importantly broadly mine fields allowing d-mining by specialty vehicles at 5rth point of breach - this is done so the enemy cannot know at which point the breach will take place.

No they are not getting slaughtered - UA losses are roughly 1/3rd Russian - attackers always take heaver casualties than defenders - but not in the southern front - showing the poor state of the RGF. Many RGF units have only a handful of rifle rounds because they are not allowed to have more by their officers as they have said in several videos.

Keep reading Russian propaganda - you might be interested in watching 13 BTRs and tanks attacking a trench network - as shown on Russian public TV, except not shown was the trenches were empty. Very valiant and brave RGF troops preforming for the Russian Public and Western propaganda readers.


58 posted on 07/16/2023 11:55:11 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: LeonardFMason

Look at the map and spot the advances of your heroes. Facts are facts - and spouting the latest Moscow lines does not change the reality.

https://deepstatemap.live/


59 posted on 07/16/2023 11:57:43 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: EEGator

You are right about NYT.

Typically NYT leaks Pentagon and WaPo leaks CIA. It’s interesting that both sources have been broadcasting bad news about Biden for months, no one here seems to read them or understand the significance of what is being said.

The Dems have been signaling that Biden is done since December. I can’t believe people still post, every day, “Biden this, Biden that” - as if he were an important person.


60 posted on 07/16/2023 12:07:57 PM PDT by Jim Noble (Make the GOP illegal - everything else will follow)
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