Posted on 06/27/2023 11:56:51 AM PDT by CA Conservative
A fresh NBC News poll has both the Trump and DeSantis campaigns energized -- but for different reasons. Trump allies are touting its GOP primary top line finding that the former president is still leading the 2024 Republican presidential field by a wide margin, currently garnering a 51 percent majority among an increasingly crowded field. Gov. Ron DeSantis remains in second place, nearly 30 percentage points behind Trump nationally, with nobody else cracking double digits. If nothing changes over the next half-year, particularly in the crucial early states, Trump could be on a glide path to the nomination. Indeed, if he remains in a dominant position (for what it's worth, a recent CNN poll showed his position less dominant) over the next two months, there's a greater chance he'll act on his public flirtations with the idea of skipping primary debates.
What Team Trump is downplaying or dismissing -- and what DeSantis supporters are widely sharing -- is the same survey's general election ballot. Nationally, it finds Donald Trump trailing unpopular incumbent Joe Biden by four percentage points, whereas DeSantis is tied with Biden. And within the essential battleground states that decide the winner of the presidency, DeSantis' advantage over Biden, and his outperformance of Trump, is even more glaring:
Giancarlo Sopo @GiancarloSopo · Follow 🚨SWING STATE POLL🚨
Biden: 48% (+2) Trump: 46%
Biden: 44% DeSantis: 50% (+6)
Source: NBC News
The eight-point difference in swing states is entirely consistent with most state level polling.
New NBC New poll - '24 GOP WH
Trump 51% DeSantis 22% Pence 7% Christie 5% Haley 4% Ramaswamy 3% Scott 3% Hutchinson 2%
--- General Election Match-ups
Biden 49% Trump 45%
Biden 47% DeSantis 47%
NBC's data shows DeSantis hitting 50 percent and leading Biden by six points across the key battlegrounds, whereas Trump trails Biden by two points in those places. What's interesting is that a "generic Republican" tops Biden in these numbers -- by six points nationally, and five points in swing states. Trump, who I think almost everyone would agree is the opposite of a "generic Republican," trails on both metrics. This is an early echo of a phenomenon we saw in the 2022 midterm elections, which should have been a decisive red wave, but wasn't. In the midterms, "generic" GOP candidates over-performed Trump-aligned ones by five points. Independents backed certain Republicans, but not others, leading to a weaker-than-expected overall GOP showing among these non-affiliated voters. That was the difference between the anticipated wave, and the realized trickle. Looking ahead, part of DeSantis' appeal to GOP voters is that he would have a better chance of beating Joe Biden than Donald Trump, who already lost to Biden. This independent survey reinforces that dynamic, backing up the results a DeSantis-aligned pollster published last week, highlighting three of the most important swing states in the country:
🇺🇲 2024 Battleground States polling by @POStrategies (DeSantis internal, RVs, 06/17-19)
AZ: DeSantis: 47% (+6) Biden: 41%
Biden: 45% (+2) Trump: 43% . GA: DeSantis: 49% (+3) Biden: 46%
Biden: 47% (+2) Trump: 45% . PA: DeSantis: 48% (+3) Biden: 45%
Biden: 48% (+3) Trump: 45%
As you can see, per this data, DeSantis runs five-to-eight points better than Trump across Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, just as DeSantis runs eight points stronger than Trump in the NBC battleground subset. It's all well and good for DeSantis backers (and/or 'over-Trumpers' looking for an alternative) to trumpet the findings, but it's all hypothetical and meaningless if DeSantis can't get himself into a general election setting. And if the primaries started tomorrow, it looks like he wouldn't. I maintain my belief that Trump could again win the presidency in 2024, especially if a recession arrives, but his likelihood of doing so is lower than other Republicans', based on what voters have demonstrated repeatedly over the last half-decade. With public sentiment looking like this, Biden is and should be highly vulnerable:
RNC Research @RNCResearch · Follow NBC POLL: "Just 20% of voters believe this country is headed in the right direction. 74% say the nation is on the wrong track."
One might be tempted to think that if voters' attitudes remain this sour a little over a year from now, the opposition party should have a layup victory in the offing. I'd typically agree, if I didn't know what happened last November. Deep dissatisfaction with Biden, failing policies, and Democratic extremism just aren't enough to guarantee Republican wins if the party is offering an alternative choice that an important group of voters simply will not support. What GOP base voters do with that information is up to them.
Oh my the MSM trying to pull up DeSantis, as he is sinking.
NBC? (Nothing But Communism?)
DeSantis is losing support to Pence and Ramaswaney.
If Trump had not run again and simply supported DeSantis, this race would be basically over with DeSantis cruising to victory easy over Joe the Pedo.
And if pigs could fly...
That is true, but Trump is 90% egotist and 10% patriot, sigh.
Don’t think it’s going to be Biden anyways
POS polling was a company desantis supporters tried to lie about and claim was a Trump polling firm.
It’s not.
It appears to have consistantly shown desantis doing better than biden, but Trump beating desantis in the primary...
And it’s being pushed by various team desantis people, as why desantis should be the selected instead of Trump to run against biden.
As if any Trump supporter will vote for the lying, corrupt desantis.
This same set of polls has been talked about since Sunday
Ahhh good ole NBC. Feed some meat to Trump, feed some meat to DeSantis, sit back, and watch the sparks fly.
No matter how jacked everybody is here about Trump cruising to the nomination with three indictments, the rest of the country is far less enthused.
What's truly ironic is that by nominating Trump, you are almost certain to give the establishment Republicans the upper hand going forward. The recrimination round when he crashes and burns in the general election is going to be something to behold.
The legacy media, the CIA and the FBI have not even started in on DeSantis yet. If he’s the nominee, he will have been Borked by them.
Comparing Trump’s general election numbers and DeSantis’ now is comparing apples to oranges. Until DeSantis can show he can stand up under what will be an unbelievably vicious and dishonest set of attacks that will run 24/7, we have no idea how he will do.
Barely beaten Biden and no one is even attacking him. Not good...Luckily he’s 40 points back in the Primary and we don’t have to worry to much for now. How is Tim Scott doing BTW?
DeSantis may beat The Tater in votes in the key swing states - but he’ll NEVER beat Pedo Joe in BALLOTS.
This is all still way to early. Every election cycle they crank this stuff out earlier and earlier.
Really???
That’s hard to believe, considering some of the vitriol expressed here on Free Republic , against DeSantis.
“Comparing Trump’s general election numbers and DeSantis’ now is comparing apples to oranges. “
True. We haven’t even begun to see what effect a couple more indictments (J6 and GA, for example) as well as a couple of possible convictions might have on Trump’s general election numbers.
DallasBiff wrote: “Oh my the MSM trying to pull up DeSantis, as he is sinking.”
Looks like Trump is the one sinking if you look at the most important data, the general election vs. Biden.
Tomorrows poll: “Biden beats Trump and DeSantis”
Polls are a political tool.
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