Things went remarkably smoothly when the Soviet Union fell apart 30 years ago. A lot of lesser countries were formed from the soviet republics and they are somewhat unstable and insecure but they haven’t caused much trouble. In part, this is because Russia, and elements of the Russian military have helped keep a lid of trouble within the old republics.
If Russia is destabilized, there is a chance of widespread unrest across Asia. You know, some people thought it was a good idea when the Shah of Iran was overthrown (he was a Bad Guy). But we got stuck with decades of trouble in a destabilized Middle East. We might see such a thing again. But perhaps with nukes this time.
My bottom-line has always been that Ukraine (inside Russia or outside Russia) really doesn’t matter that much. But I think the Globalists have turned this into a fiasco where, win or lose, the world as a whole is going to suffer.
The Middle East was already unstable. That’s part of why we always had to prop up the Shah. When Europe stopped colonizing it they made a bunch of countries ignoring how little the groups in those countries got along, then walked away. It’s been a mess since. And will be until they either learn to get along or somebody shakes the etch-a-sketch and let’s them make new countries.