Posted on 06/12/2023 3:26:47 PM PDT by Kazan
Another Ukrainian attack got bogged down in a minefield.
Losses:
3 Finnish Leopard 2R with mine clearing equipment
1 German Bergepanzer III recovery tank (based on the Leopard 2 chassis) with mine clearing equipment 2 German Leopard 2M6
2 U.S. M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles
1 U.S. MaxxPro armored transport vehicle
1 U.S. HMMWV armored transport vehicle
1 unidentified vehicle
This follows other significant recent losses.
The total replacement cost of the above vehicles at present value is about $60-70 million.
During the spring and summer of 2022 the Russian forces destroyed the regular Ukrainian pre-war army. It was replaced with Soviet era material from east European states and Ukrainian draftees. By the beginning of this year that second army had also been destroyed.
What we currently witness is the demilitarization of Ukraine's third army.
As I detailed back in January:
The stocks of two complete armies have by now been destroyed in Ukraine. The resources for a smaller third one will be delivered in the next rounds of 'western' equipment deliveries during the next months. Russia will dully destroy Ukraine's third army just as it has destroyed the first and second one. It is doubtful that the 'West' has enough material left to provide Ukraine with a fourth one.
That then leaves only two options. Send in 'western' armies with the equipment they still have or declare victory and go home.
I do not sense any appetite in the U.S. or Europe to send their soldiers into Ukraine. It is quite obvious that their fates would be no different from the Ukrainian ones.
That leaves negotiations as the only option. There will be a lot of hesitation as the price Russia will ask for to stop the war will be high:
For starters, will Russia insist on securing the rights to all territory east of the Dnieper River and on a special status for Odessa? I think so. Odessa would no longer be ruled by Ukraine. I also would expect Russia to demand (non-negotiable) the arrest and prosecution of those responsible for the murder of 42 Russian speaking Ukrainians in 2014 who sought refuge in the Trade Unions House.
I also would expect that Russia will demand the dismantling of NATO Aegis missile systems in Poland and Romania and a ban on U.S. or NATO troops being posted in countries that share a border with Ukraine. In light of Russia’s stated goal of de-nazification I would not be surprised if Russia demands the laws of Ukraine be changed and that Nazi-affiliated parties and symbols be banned.
I believe that Russia will want all historic Russian regions, at least those which Lenin and Khrushchev for whatever reasons gave to Ukraine, back under Russian control. Russia will also demand the lifting of all sanctions against it.
The West is failing to grasp the reality that Russia believes it is winning the war in Ukraine and that it is not suffering economic or political damage at home. And, when you factor in the international arena, the war has proven to be a boon for Russia’s efforts to help create a new international financial/trade system that circumvents Washington’s control. In other words, Russia has little incentive to entertain negotiations that would require Russian concessions.
It will still need some time for the 'western' public to move from swallowing 'Ukraine is wining' propaganda towards acknowledging reality. It unfortunately will also still take more Ukrainian and Russian losses.
But I strongly believe, maybe too wishfully, that the end of the war is now coming into sight.
In Before The Anger.
Considering the length of the front and the equipment the Ukrainians have already expended to gain just a few to several settlements back in what has been called the ‘gray zone’, it’s hard to fathom that the Ukrainians can evict the Russians from what had been their territory. This is especially harder with the ability for the Russians to dig in as they have.
Oh please,
The losses so far are quite light for what land has been liberated.
BS a couple villages? LOL
“The stocks of two complete armies have by now been destroyed in Ukraine. The resources for a smaller third one will be delivered in the next rounds of ‘western’ equipment deliveries during the next months. Russia will dully destroy Ukraine’s third army just as it has destroyed the first and second one. It is doubtful that the ‘West’ has enough material left to provide Ukraine with a fourth one.”
9000 m1a2 tanks, 5000 Bradley’s (decomissioned), probably 10k M60 variants stored, countless stores F/A-18, F-16, F-15, and about 2-3 hundred A10’s.
The US could easily replace a few lost leopards and Bradley’s. Wonder what the Russians still go that works? I am not rooting for Ukraine, but Russia should just pull out now, maybe give some of its territory to Ukraine before it can’t make a deal.
Everything Ukraine has “liberated” thus far was unoccupied and undefended.
Of course because the Russian fled.
What Russia should do is denounce Stalin’s annexations after Yalta, give Lemberg/Lwów back to Austria or Poland while opening negotiations with Germany over Königsberg and the rest of East Prussia.
Sure, and the Kaiser can take back Alsace, Lorraine, Silesia and Pomerania.
And the UK can take back Ireland.
And the USA can renounce Philipine Island independence.
Your Funny, not referring to your looks.
they were never there lol
obviously you are unable to think like a liberal, that could get you arrested by they them.
As this offensive continues I suspect I am going to hear more and more of “they were never there” Just like the Kherson and Kharkiv offensive excuses.
You don’t think the Russians make things? You don’t think they know how to resupply their missiles and tanks?
I presume you must be one of these anti-Russian, hate-filled baby boomers, still living in the cold war era like Lindsey Graham.
The cold war ended. Russia is a republic. The people in Donbas just want freedom from the corrupt Ukraine. They want the right to choose their own laws. Putin is corrupt, he’s a very bad guy, and everybody knows, including the people in Russia. It doesn’t have to be restated over and over. But Putin didn’t start this war. Ukraine did, by not abiding by the Minsk agreement. And the U.S. played a role by funding the political opposition in 2014.
Nobody in their right mind should be rooting for Ukraine.
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. But go ahead and believe in Kremlin Bolshevik fairy tales if you wish.
I’m going to use the meme on Twitter.
If you believe that you are either blind or an idiot. There are plenty of videos of combat operations and the resulting dead Russians and destroyed Russian equipment.
That’ll grind some gears. :)
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