Who is leading in the key battlground states?

fivethirtyeight.com ^ | 04/29/2023

[Drew68]

Most recent battleground state polls from fivethirtyeight.com

Arizona:

Biden 45% -- Trump 44%
DeSantis 48% -- Biden 42%

Georgia:

Biden 44% -- Trump 43%
DeSantis 47% -- Biden 46%

North Carolina:

Biden 45% -- Trump 43%
DeSantis 44% -- Biden 41%

Nevada:

Biden 46% -- Trump 45%
DeSantis 44% -- Biden 41%

Michigan:

Biden 45% -- Trump 42%
DeSantis 45% -- Biden 43%

Pennsylvania:

Biden 46% -- Trump 42%
DeSantis 45% -- Biden 42%

Wisconsin:

Biden 47% -- Trump 44%
DeSantis 46% -- Biden 46%

Virginia:

Biden 47% -- Trump 46%
DeSantis48% Biden 43%

[FreeReign]

"Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance"

FiveThrityEight Nov. 3rd 2020

[wiseprince]

Maybe Desanctimonius can commission a poll where he is up by 45pts?

[Leaning Right]

> A year from now we will be in a depression… <

And that’s why these polls - while interesting - mean nothing.

2024 is going to be a mess. But will it be a big enough mess to wake up any mindless Democrat voters? No one can say today.

[EliRoom8]

Those polls are generated by Senator McConnell who is in cahoots with Biden and Harris. They are trying to get Asa through the side door. Its as plain as day!

[cableguymn]

I trust the polls as much as I trust Joe Biden

I don’t care if they say my guy is winning. Polling is now about the outcome not the truth.

[cableguymn]

You only trust the ones that say trump is pounding everyone else.

That’s not how it works.

They are all garbage

[Trump_Triumphant]

All of these polls show that, at this moment, the general election polls are statistically ties.

[cableguymn]

Democrats proved in 2020 they don’t need democrats to vote. They can just vote for them.

[cymbeline]

“Make of it what you will.”

I’m surprised that all of the margins are 3 percent or less.

I’m pleasantly surprised that Trump is doing that well against Biden.

Too much can change between the poll and the election for the poll to be predictive.

[CFW]

Is this poll from before or after Nate Silver was fired from Disney (who kept the 538 site)?

Not that 538 had a great track record even when Silver was at the helm, I was just curious.

[Nashcash]

So seems like the Dems are afraid of Trump and would rather have Brandon run against Desani

[Drew68]

Trump should throw in the towel. America is done....he lost to an eggplant once, he will again. It’s the people. More misery is needed/wanted.

I'm not going to argue there.

I'm unapologetically pro-DeSantis and will continue to be so until he's either out of the race or does something so egregiously stupid that I can no longer in good conscience support him, at which point I will sit on the sidelines and commit my vote to whichever candidate wins the GOP nomination.

This being said, even if DeSantis wins the nomination, which is unlikely, I'd give him at best a 25% chance of winning the presidency (which is 25% more than I'd give Trump, the likely GOP nominee).

The problem is demographics. Republicans have lost the demographic war. The Democrats have a lock on all minority voters, college-educated whites, single women, and Gen-Z.

They wake up on the morning of Election Day with 257 Electoral Votes already in the bag. This is a tough obstacle to overcome.

[Drew68]

Is this poll from before or after Nate Silver was fired from Disney (who kept the 538 site)?

Different polls. Different dates. Some are recent, others are old.

I used only the most recent poll for each state.

[entropy12]

Meaningless poll. One has to be running to make poll worthwhile. Is this the one of the pollsters who predicted landslide for Hillary?

[Drew68]

So seems like the Dems are afraid of Trump and would rather have Brandon run against Desantis

Not at all.

The Democrat strategy right now is Trump vs. Biden because it serves two purposes. One, they believe Biden can again beat Trump, as he did before. It also allows them to run an "anti-MAGA" campaign as you can clearly see by Biden's announcement video. They want Trump, J6, etc. in the spotlight.

Two, if Trump is the nominee, they're under much less pressure to replace Biden in the primaries. The last thing they want is a bloody primary battle against an incumbent president. They remember all too well Carter's re-election campaign being mortally wounded by Ted Kennedy before Ronald Reagan stepped in and delivered the death blow.

If someone other that Trump wins the GOP primary, this throws their entire strategy into disarray.

[entropy12]

Brandon versus meatball?

[MotorCityBuck]

LOL!!🤡🤡🤡🤡

[sam_whiskey]

I think what some people on our side don’t comprehend is that there are millions of voters in this country who think Biden has done a terrible job and in normal times would vote against him but they’ll re-elect him if he runs against Trump because they’ve been brainwashed/conditioned to fear and loathe DJT so much they don’t view it as a choice anymore. Elections today are won by whoever can get voters to fear the other side more. Trump is a gift to Democrats in that regard.

[Nervous Tick]

DeSantis is not a candidate for POTUS 2024.

[Leaning Right]

There’s got to be a point where a GOP presidential candidate could do so well that he/she overcomes the fraud, and wins.

Some folks here think the GOP candidate needs to be ahead by 3% or more in the battleground states. I think that’s way too low. Maybe 8%?

That’s an awfully high hurdle. Perhaps it can only be reached if the media comes clean, and starts to report Democrat disasters honestly. That’s darn unlikely.